MARKET MAKERS AND MARKET TAKERS15 Jul 2020 11:59
I don't think there is sufficient appreciation for the fact that NM has proactively position SOLG as the market maker in this entire story. The alternative would have been to let the majors have it at their own terms, which he was obviously not keen on.
So, as a market maker, I think his approach is about control and optionality, specifically:
1) Ready the BFS and in place of the expected PFS, but keep it under wraps until the trigger is needed
2) IF (scenario 1) NC or another major (non BHP) bids for CGP, that's the trigger so release the BFS, then
2a) outcome 1 is to let them have it if the CGP value is so high to imply a sufficiently high valuation of SOLG
2aa) This will pull other majors into a SOLG bidding frenzy because no one will allow NC to get their way on the cheap for such monumental resource
2b) outcome 2 is to outbid the major to push the SOLG valuation further up, but just enough to let the major counter and still have CGP, same outcome as 2aa
3) IF (scenario 2) no one else bids for CGP, then
3a) release the BFS, which forces the argument for accepting the original offer if NM really wants CGP
3b) Wait for offer expiry in October, then issue the BFS and starve CGP while BHP is free to get in the picture, possibly dragging other majors in a bidding process.
EITHER WAY WE WIN.
The market maker sets the stage, the values and wait for the market takers to take the bait.