Member Info for TheItalian

Reading the "rebellion" article, to be honest I just got the impression that it's written to cause sensation without having any credible insider information that hasn't been known for a while.
It doesn't really move my dial.
GLA for tomorrow.

TheItalian here, for once actually in Italy enjoying some great food and blue skies.

I am disappointed like many here, we would all like to see the value of the resources reflected in the value of the company.
But at the same time I am really not surprised about the price being crucified in anticipation of the AGM, as tensions and uncertainty have been mounting for months now.
In the end I doubt that NM will be sidelined, and in fact I think we are still witnessing the development of his strategy rather than CGP's or Irwin's. But SOLG's strategy is a binary one, either get something close to the full value or keep every suitor at bay.

I suspect all is fine, but there is still some suffering to endure.

Lastly, let's keep the BB engaged, relevant, respectful and enjoyable. Many here have been of great value to all of us, and it's worth keeping it that way, for many more successful years and investments.

Best wishes to all!

I have my SOLG shares in HSBC ISAs.
I emailed Support twice to cast my vote with no response from them, really unprofessional.
Did anyone using HSBC have better luck?
Thanks, TheItalian

@belderino, what is the website? The link is hiding the actual domain name

Not a bad call, 18.6 estimate for bottom from four days ago given a actual minimum of 19.00.
I have topped up a bit, and I have some more around 18.00 just in case the drop overextends a bit.
But hoping we are done at this Fibonacci level and start pointing north.
GLA

This new RNS looks like a Star Wars movie when the emperor's fleet is aligning before a strike.
Quite intriguing in my view, and worth a positive vote given that NM is obviously meneuvering to get maximum value for shareholders (him first of course!) and there must be other investors knocking at his door, other than BHP and NC.
GLA

Eldorado, I am doing the same exercise, and I see an ongoing downward channel which is pointing to a 61.8 retracement, which I place at 18.6 as I started the W1 at 1.5. The supertrend I use still vastly confirms that the price is not yet going up.
If we see a break to the channel and a decisive upward movement is resumes, then I agree that we might be looking at a W3 reaching between 74 and 118, depending on how strong is the impulse.
All in all an exciting share, worth investing in at this stage, which I have.
GLA

Dear ************
Page 4 of the management circular contains the dial in numbers.

However this AGM will be rather brief and not open to the same level of Q&A that you would normally expect. This is sadly a covid issue in as much as much as there there will only be a few people in the room and indeed most of the directors and executive, myself included, will not be there.

We are examining options for some other Q&A forum and will put this together once the AGM is out of the way
BG

I have emailed the company about it, really clumsy to be honest.

@redknight1, yes I have seen end of Q3, that's why I factoring in at least some delay!

Kind of challenging to add to BNc's notes, but since I concur with his reading of the chart and I am big fan, I would reinforce that reading with two comments of my own (BNc shoot me if I am getting this wrong!):

1) Since March 2020, assuming we have indeed started the "primary" W3, the price has been moving within a channel and within that channel the possible W3 target of 85pis pointing to December 2021, which is a nice coincidence given that that's about the time we could get the BFS and it's also a level that corresponds to a theoretical Alpala valuation at the feasibility state; obviously if Porvenir or Rio Amarillo start to generate a price movement of their own this number needs to be reviewed;

2) Within the primary W3, we may have already seen a first intermediate wave progression with completion of "minor" w1-w2-w3-w4 (at 30.7 - 19.0 - 43.9 - 30.5) missing just the minor w5 to complete the intermediate w1, which staying within the channel might reach around 52p best guess between December/January);

You see what too much time may do to me!

GLA, TheItalian

Punit you are a great mathematician

Colonel, I did not dilute, those numbers are based on current issuance, which is the only known number we have.

Based on the article you can find at the provided link https://www.kincoracopper.com/media/downloads/media/RFC_Ambrian_Copper_MandA_November_2018_web.pdf
we can get a sense of a theoretical SOLG valuation according to its stage of development.

So, if the data shows that the price paid for operating assets has been US$307/t (US¢14/lb), preproduction US$211/t (US¢10/lb), feasibility US$193/t (US¢9/lb) and exploration US$74/t (US¢3/lb), that currently puts SOLG at 32.1p for Alpala alone, with a projected valuation at 83.8 at DFS stage, 91.6 during preproduction, and 133p when operating.

I have tried the calculation in a slightly different way, valuing copper, gold and silver separately. I get a theoretical takeover price of 156.8p, not too distant from 133p.

The important thing to me though is to make sense of the current price, given that we all know how big the resource is and how much the vultures are circling SOLG waiting to strike.
Now, since the empirical data and the pricing models seem to justify the current price, I take comfort in the potential price target once we get the DFS. SOLG are not selling before realizing that value as stated a million times, so we are stuck, for better or worse.
GLA

Newcrest is SolGold's second biggest shareholder behind BHP, but became frustrated this year by SolGold managing director Nick Mather's decision to fund development of its Cascabel project with debt instruments rather than equity.
In June, a frustrated Newcrest withdrew its representative, Craig Jones, from the SolGold board, and the company also declined to participate in an equity raising at that time.
Despite the tensions, Mr Biswas rejected suggestions he wanted to sell Newcrest's stake in SolGold.
''We definitely want to keep our position in SolGold, I think long term there is a great potential in what might be in Cascabel or elsewhere on the SolGold leases,'' he said on Tuesday.
''The only issues we have had in the past relate to governance issues, particularly in relation to the recent royalty and loan deals which we thought transferred unnecessary risk to the shareholders and gave away value outside of the company.
''In terms of technical fundamentals, we still believe that one day it will be a great mine, but there is a way to go yet to prove that up."

IG also says 2.5

https://www.businessfocusmagazine.com/2020/11/04/solgold-a-world-class-copper-gold-project/

Perhaps because one website shows the prevailing mid price and when you buy you are lifting the best offer price from the market makers? If you sell you might see 3.5 as that is the best bid from the market makers.
Unless of course I am being dumb myself here.

Right now, if we are looking at a cup and handle pattern starting 29th May 2020, we need a clear break north of 4.6 and ideally closer to 5.0 before we can entertain higher targets, but price action currently seems to support and confirm the ARS fundamentals, so fingers crossed we should be in a good place.
Future targets to look forward to: 6.4, 8.3, 9.8, 12.3.
GLA

I don't think it will retrace.
2.5 - 2.8 range until a break upwards, next stop 3.5.
Or, there is hoping.
GLA!