Member Info for TheBuffoon

Tobin,

“There is no certainty that the Company will drill all unbooked drilling locations”

There is a certainty that they won’t! Not only will they be focusing on Ortoire, but they will be selling the company well before we’ve drilled the proven locations.

Buffy

DW,

Or even: Another Dam Virtuous Fine Newsboard!

Buffy

I think I sold out at 71p which was around the buyout price per share.

Buffy

£1.50 a share? That implies a market cap of around £280m

Paul wouldn’t bother if that was the target.

A $1bn dollar gas contract to sell out of for a quarter of that; not to mention all the other prospects and the two imminent wells?

You obviously didn’t give it much consideration when making up a number!

Buffy

Probably better to have thought about it before 12:50.

Buffy

From ADVFN

mynameiskhan13 Aug '20 - 11:58 - 10906 of 10906
0 7 0
Rig inspection done by ministry yesterday. And just now, approval granted.

Spud today!

Expecting RNS tomorrow

Interesting, a smiley comes out as two question marks....

I recently did have a smiley about SAVE, but I’m content that this will be a multibagger,; although we will have had at least an annual re-vaccination for Covid-19 before we can get too excited and buy the weekly food shopping at Marks and Spencer.

Buffy

Itsriskythat,

With respect to your expectation that results would definitely be in August...

I’m glad I didn’t commit to posting the same thought ??

Over the years a Friday RNS has been seen as the time to bury bad news.

I may be reading this wrong, but the way I see it is that we are going to get non payment issues all the time. The income in future is likely to be such that we won’t be too concerned.

Taking less gas than a company contracts to pay for isn’t disastrous at this stage, but when we sign new deals at a better price, these non payers (of the gas not taken) will be dropped unless they pay up. If you need the gas you need the gas...

Buffy

DW, By the way, I wasn’t expecting a spud RNS, but I am expecting an RNS on something else, mentioning when the spud took place.

As regards Dana, they had a made for purpose portfolio. TXP potentially have the same, but I just can’t see anyone bidding until Chinook, Cas deep and Big Daddy are drilled.

If they all come in, I’m going to have a few extra rashers of bacon. That’s what I call pigging out.

Buffy

DW, HBR,

Don’t worry, I had some crazy figures too, but we need to look at this from a buyer’s perspective. There has to be a lot of meat on the bone. Not only that, but while some will take oil assets alongside the gas giants we may well have, they won’t want a large number of low producing oil wells needing lots of workovers.

Buffy

DW, the market cap at £0.705 was 128.44m. If we take the mid price of your prediction, that would imply a market cap of £596m. That’s a bit pessimistic surely.

Any non hostile bid in the next 12-18 months wouldn’t be accepted I’m sure. Why would you give the company away for such a small sum. Obviously if Chinook and Royston are duds It would be a big blow, but with the number of good prospects in double figures PB won’t find another opportunity like this in his working lifetime.

Any prediction is just a guess with little basis for making it. Here’s my finger in the air guess based on some success with other wells...a market cap of £1.5bn minimum in four years time.

Buffy

I always wonder whether people have given serious thought to the strategy before letting the tax tail wag the investment dog.

Buffy

Bully, broker notes are written that way. Perhaps you are talking about ‘research reports’ from self start up financial commentators who generally know far less than the best bb posters.

Always bear in mind that ‘The City’ works on a twelve month look ahead, hence the low valuation. You need to ask yourself where we’ll be in those 12 months, rather than in 3 years, for their valuation to make anything like sense.

Buffy

I’d rather SAVE developed the assets they have, particularly Niger, before spending management time and money on acquiring some of the 24% of the Jubilee field that Oxy still have after Totals pullout (rumoured to be due to difficulties agreeing the tax liability on the purchase with the Ghanaian govt)

Buffy

Thanks Danawinner.

I have my ISAs and SIPP with AJ Bell who own the publication so it’s free, and I just use Touch ID in the app. Quick and easy.

PB has tried to emphasise that there will be quiet periods, and it will take some time to build the company into a decent mid cap mkt cap company. I’ve tried some minor trading around the edges, but I’m no better off than if I just kept my spreadbets and shares as they were.

There will be some failures along the way, and those will present some good entry points for jumping onboard or topping up . As Buffett said, in a good company, the best time to buy is today, and the best holding period is forever. I’m not quite with him on the latter, but I see where he’s coming from on the former.

This will be another Dana. I wonder...will we see a new poster using the name txpwinner or touchstonewinner.

You can perhaps change yours simply to ‘winner’. ????????

Buffy

For those that don’t have access:

A big natural gas discovery onshore Trinidad has transformed Touchstone Exploration’s (TXP:AIM) prospects and investors should buy ahead of multiple incremental catalysts leading up to a step change in group production.

This investment is not without risk. Sentiment towards the wider sector is patchy and the shares are already up materially since its Cascadura find was announced.

However, we think the scale of the opportunity balances out these risks. Touchstone’s existing production of around 1,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day could increase to more than 10,000 boepd as Cascadura, mainly gas with some associated liquids, is brought on stream.

The apparent scale of Cascadura, located on the Touchstone’s Ortoire block, caused FinnCap to increase its forecast of the group’s peak production potential from 13,000 boepd to 17,000 boepd.

Rising output should begin to feed through in 2021 and could eventually enable the company to reward shareholders with a dividend.

Gas is in demand in Trinidad, whose large industrial sector belies the cliché of a Caribbean island.

An upcoming share price catalyst for Touchstone is an agreement on gas sales with the state-owned operators National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago and Heritage Petroleum which should be announced before the end of the summer.

The group’s current production is crude oil and selling a lot more gas at an agreed price would reduce its exposure to volatile oil markets.

Other near-term catalysts include a third-party reserves report on Cascadura and the commencement of drilling on a second prospect on Ortoire – Chinook. Both bits of news are expected in July.

Longer term the company looks set to drill significantly more wells on Ortoire amid attempts to fully delineate the block’s potential. Up to 20 potential targets have been identified. This includes further drilling on Cascadura itself and a well on highest risk and highest reward prospect Royston in the first half of 2021.

Chief executive Paul Baay tells Shares there are no plans for an equity raise to finance this activity, with the company planning to pay for future drilling from existing funds and anticipated cash flow. On 16 June the company agreed a US$20 million loan with Trinidad’s Republic Bank.

In the words of broker Shore Capital ‘this is a very positive development which makes considerable sense for the company, replacing its existing C$20 million credit facility on favourable terms and also providing important financial flexibility, enabling Touchstone to confidently press on with its Ortoire exploration activities’.

Buffy

I just typed a long post and lost it, so here’s an abbreviated version...

SAVE at this point reminds me of GKP in Kurdistan with Todd Kozel at the helm.

There were all sorts of conspiracy theories about him, particularly after one poster brilliantly worked out that a new company he set up was spelt with the initials of the directors names. The assets were great, but the environment wasn’t. The SP was going to the moon (and it really tried early on, shooting up to 400p from a few pence), but the payments weren’t forthcoming. After all that time worrying about how Saddam Hussein could affect the production and in the end the problem was that they just weren’t being paid. Anyway, payments eventually came through, and became regular. Alway behind the original schedule, but the money started coming in.

Is that what we have here?

Anyway, we have a World Bank Guarantee.

OK, we don’t know what the guarantee is.

Nor do we know what partial actually means other than some payments due aren’t covered.

Nor do we really know whether we can claim anything yet.

Nor do we know why not.

Nor do we know whether the number of claims would be limited.

Should we be told these things? Are they confidential?

Who knows? All I know is that AK treats shareholders with the same degree of welcome that he affords a piece of fresh chewing gum on the sole of his shoe just after he walks on his new Wilton office carpet.

Oh, and anyone actually criticising Agadem at this point really needs to look at themself.

I just wondered if he acknowledges that their comment that ‘All looks good for the 24th’ was a bum steer?

Buffy

Agadem, didn’t you get a bum steer from Celicourt?

Buffy

“surely the drill duration and results are different to each other ?”

I assumed he was referring to when the drill was finished and the discovery or otherwise was announced.

JTD, in the 5 June presentation PB says we should have the results by the end of August.

Buffy