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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/coronavirus-stock-market-economy-share-price-sell-off-outbreak-china-a9360266.html

Rastuss - can you provide a link to the article about the reinfection rate? That sounds particularly worrying if there is any truth to it. There hasn't been any news about the British guy who came back from Singapore and infected a dozen others but was said to have recovered. Given how he was an early victim and recovered I wonder if the media will begin to report on patients like him if it turns out this virus has a high rate of reinfection or some kind of 'second wave' attack

Missed that drop to 129-131. Incredible opportunity with gold trading at $1640 and AISC around $600/oz, debt free and able to ramp up exploration and development across Gedabek, Ordubad and elsewhere.

11.30 to buy and gold is trading well above $1600/oz. Not the only cheap goldie around but definitely one of the cheapest!

ColonelDrake - contained? I don't think any country has a grip on this yet. The Chinese have been away on their extended Spring Festival for the better part of the past 6 weeks and have effectively imposed a strict quarantine on more than half of the population during this period. People are now beginning to go back to work in the cities so I think it's too early to say whether they have it contained. Western countries will find it much harder to force their populations to stay home.

Regarding the mortality rate while we know the number of deaths in comparison to the number of infected as recorded there is missing data which skews the figures. For instance how many people infected only have mild symptoms and go unnoticed? How many more have been unable to receive medical care and are at home? I've heard these figures will be quite high now given the rate of recovery from some patients. On the other hand, how many people have died in their own homes but yet to be reported? And crucially (following on from what Rastuss wrote), how many infected, whether reported or otherwise will die?

Governments are rightly concerned because of the incubation period which can be as long as 14 days. So the figures today for numbers infected are already 14 days out of date! Worse this virus is infectious also much longer than SARS and other viruses tend to be, both before the patient displays signs of symptoms and during recovery. There's a lot we don't know still but I very much doubt a vaccine will magically appear in the next couple of weeks when most experts predict it will take many months. They didn't even reach the point of manufacturing a SARS virus because the virus had burnt out by summer. Everything I've read so far on this one suggests it's easy to pass on and there's very little we in the west can do to stop it becoming a pandemic.

Of the couple of cases in Italy last week it has ballooned to more than 300 now and several European countries have announced their first coronavirus cases, likely linked to the group in Italy. The countries affected include Austria, Croatia and Switzerland. Also Algeria and Brazil have reported their first cases today. The Swiss man was reportedly infected 11 days ago when he visited Milan which suggests anyone in contact with him is now a risk and potentially anyone who came into contact with those secondary carriers, but how can anyone track that when more and more cases are being reported daily?

I think what is more scary than the virus is the measures that Governments are taking and may yet take to tackle this. 1000 hotel guests were quarantined in Tenerife because one person was infected. If this spreads uncontrollably what other 'measures' will be taken? Towns sealed off? Public transport closed? I dread to think but things can definitely get a lot worse.

Copper for what it's worth hasn't taken a pummelling because fundamental demand hasn't fallen where as oil markets which are oversupplied has and will continue to do so if growth slows. Stimulus is a given, China has taken the lead and no doubt the EU and US will step up their bond buying and keep rates low. But this won't stave off a run on the banks if the Eurozone goes into recession. A knock-on effect will be inevitable if that is the case.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note hit its all-time low in morning trading Monday as worries about the spread of the coronavirus from China continued to push money away from risk and into safety like bonds.

The 10-year yield touched 1.32%, the record low that was set in 2016 following Brexit, which spurred fears about global economic stability. Stocks struggled as bond prices rose, with the S&P 500 falling 1%. Shares showed some resilience at the open, but selling accelerated through the morning. Gold was the one counterintuitive trade, with gold futures falling 1.7% as the $1,700 level proved to be strong resistance. Gold had struck $1,689 in the previous session, its highest since January 2013. Stocks continued to fall as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said a spread of Covid-19 in the U.S. was "inevitable" and warned Americans to prepare for disruptions in their daily lives.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could top $US1,850 an ounce in the near term if the outbreak of COVID-19, the infectious disease that reportedly originated in Wuhan, China, can’t be controlled by the second quarter.

Do you not think demand for Chinese made goods will take a hit? Italy's Lombardy region accounts for a third of GDP and if the region remains in lock down will send the country into recession, job losses and defaults to follow. Eurozone borders closing temporarily may not be enough to stop the contagion. Now imagine what the fear will be like when this kind of outbreak (300+ people) are multiplied across pockets of Europe. The fear will spread further and an economic slowdown across Europe is then much more likely. I don't think it's scaremongering to look at what has happened in China, Korea, the cruise ship off Japan etc and extrapolate the effects of this virus to determine what is likely to happen next.

Apologies for the final sentence. It should read gold has fallen off 7 year highs but is likely to move higher.

Today's reaction here is an opportunity. Fear makes people do silly things and short term traders will no doubt believe they have made the right choice. They may regret that decision in the coming weeks if economic conditions around the world deteriorates in the coming weeks.

The virus is already here in Europe so whether governments close borders or continue with lax measures the consequences will continue to lure investors to gold.

Gold has only just fallen off it's 7 year high to the $1650 leveland the reaction here

Allviewswelcome - I've also gone overweight in gold and other precious metal producers in the past couple of weeks. Yesterday was a much better day than today for the stocks I hold. I'm not sure what investors think has 'improved' in terms of economic outlook and tackling the virus but it looks to me like a profit taking exercise and nothing fundamentally has improved. Arguably expectations are worsening with each passing day so I would bet on gold rising above $1700 in the next couple of weeks.

Good evening RB
It definitely pays to diversify into a couple of precious metal producers, as you say some stocks look better value than others. SHG for example has not moved in the past day or two where as HUM and TSG are up 8% and 14% respectively.

I agree there is less value to be gained from holding the mid-tiers you mentioned however they do tend to react quicker to gold price movements and offer a little more stability in the pf. So one could drawdown from those gains and add to the likes of SHG and PAF which seemed to have been forgotten. HOC has had a tremendous run lately also.

Regarding AAZ, I think its peers are fast catching up. Look how far HUM, TSG and SHG have come in recent months whereas AAZ has drifted ever since it's last run. It's currently unloved now but it was also considered fairly priced back when it traded in the 70-80p range for months. It's exposure to copper, like KAZ makes it somewhat second choice compared to the e purer plays mentioned but I believe it's prudent to have some exposure here. Today there was a little more interest than usual but nothing out of the ordinary.

Maybe it wants you to get a better price tomorrow!

I believe THS report their results on a 6E basis so a more accurate comparison is SLP produce roughly 100koz and THS produced 140koz. Their first quarter production was 34koz and they are hoping FY production will rise to 160koz.

PGM production making up for losses from their chrome production is a valid point but worth noting chrome production is expected to increase this year and continue to make up the bulk of costs.

2019 figures state $177m revenue vs $148m costs (p13). Chrome averaged $162/t in 2019. Breakeven was likely around $145/t so with increased chrome production and prices expected to dip below $120/t in the coming weeks it's not one I would touch right now.

Mozzie is right, just today I received a letter from Britannia bank announcing they are lowering their savings rate. Not that I have much sat there but I expect more banks to follow in the coming months as growth expectations are cut and companies begin laying off people. Fears over the Covid virus are infecting the markets and that will ultimately be the most devastating blow as it may lead to recessions around the world.

Are banks better prepared this time around? We are told they are but I don't have much confidence in them nor the thousands of people indebted to them that are apparently one pay check away from broke.

Yes that sounds right, quarterly results a couple weeks after that. Last year we rose into this period when gold was trading between $1290-1320/oz. I'd expect to see at least 20% from these levels in the coming weeks.

Gold flirting with $1650/oz

Gold is a whisker away from $1650. Is the beginning of the exodus from those overpriced tech stocks?

And for all the other reasons Visitor mentioned in his 6:09 post earlier (apologies missed that).

Gold over chrome right now. Obviously Pd/Rh over gold but SLP looks to have exhausted itself from the recent run. The likes of SHG, TSG, HUM, PAF, CEY, HGM are beginning to gain interest and have momentum now IMO

Has not the price of Chrome imploded though? Just going from memory recent pricing suggests $125/t down from $160/t in latest report.