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KEFI have delivered and continue to progress towards their late 2021 production target. Anyone not already invested for fears of the deal collapsing would do well to jump in at todays sub 2p price. This should be trading in the £30-40m mcap range by the end of the month.

Following the US drone strikes earlier this week, the protests outside the US embassy in Baghdad and Trumps warnings on Twitter the US have struck back with an airstrike killing an Iranian General, head of the IRG's elite Quds Force.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463

Oil prices have spiked overnight with the odds of a retaliatory strike likely. Flight to safety, namely gold should continue through the week and into the next.

Lucas01 - That sounds familiar now you mention it! It's been a while since that was announced but as you say anyone reading up will note the long term benefits of that buyback.

Well I called it wrong a couple weeks ago, sentiment is bullish right now as PM prices climb higher. If you compare HOC to some of the other major UK listed PM producers it has outperformed CEY, KAZ and HGM in the past couple of weeks. Even the tiddlers like AAZ and SHG are trailing. Some of the PM producers have been dormant for weeks like HUM and TSG with the latter only today having woken from it's sleep, trading 9% higher as we speak. I think the trick is to reduce out of the producers that have already climbed recently (HGM, HOC, KAZ, AAZ, PAF, SHG) and increase holdings in those that are due a rerate before the crowds descend (SLP, HUM, TSG) etc

rana3 - what is your target entry then?

Sorry to hear that. I'm also holding losses from recent trades in BMN, TSG and HGM although expecting some dividends to offset recent weakness. The price of gold is a good deal higher and like you say it makes very little sense to see major producers dropping back. HOC are not alone in that regard. However the drop here has been worse than most. Not worse than FRES but similar to TSG (which looked overbought at £1.20+).

There isn't too much to be excited about here in the next 6-12 months as I believe all profits will be sunk into CAPEX and exploration. The dividend may well remain at the same level and so the yield looks more attractive today than a couple months ago however I am concerned about how tight margins here are and if the price of silver weakens, net debt will rise very fast. Conversely if silver goes on a run then HOC are highly geared to benefit!

Still there are other gold producers who are exploring, paying dividends and banking profits. TSG is one volatile example with generous dividends. SLP and AAZ are cash rich producers of precious metals and may continue to raise dividends.

Hi Bev, I noticed you've been posting here since 2011 and while the asset value has risen the share price seems to have just moved sideways. Any thoughts as to possible catalysts in the next 12 months?

Dividend yield today is 0.34% (5.8p) and HY growth didn't look so strong as to justify recent market strength. I expect this to drop back some in the new year.

Quarterly results due in the fourth week of January

Looks cheap on a historical basis. Gold $1480, silver $17 and the share price is down more than 30% from recent highs (230s).

However on closer inspection the market cap of £800 doesn't look too cheap for a company expected to assign all profits towards capital expenditure and brownfields exploration over the course of the next year.

The update 22nd Nov left no doubt in my mind where this would head short term and that is frustrating as this is my preferred silver hedge to FRES.

The projections will see costs rise short term as production falls and this is best case for now.

Let's assume they manage 430koz geo of the 432k target for 2020 and AISC come in a smidgen higher than conservative projections at $1050. The company might expect to make $400/geo gross profit which is $170m give or take.

The top estimate for CAPEX is $130 million and brownfields exploration $36 (although this may be conservative). I'm not sure if greenfield and the advanced project budget are included but they are listed as $8 million and $7 million respectively.

It looks to me like net debt will rise in 2020 with perhaps a third or even half of the $95m cash being necessary to plug the expected gap, pay taxes and continue with the dividend.

Disclosure: I'm not holding HOC right now and don't expect to in the first half of 2020. What are shareholder's thoughts on holding onto HOC or buying more at this point in it's journey?

The reason to buy at these prices (anything sub 1.5p) has not changed regardless of the poorly timed dilution. But what did any experienced investor expect? Seriously, this company and Harry in his past roles have a history of issuing shares.

When the ANS funds are received and money is returned to KEFI the share price will rocket back up to the 1.8-2p range. It will definitely struggle to break recent highs following this round of dilution. Buy when others are fearful. Sell when all the looneys turn up aka Taff Evans, Degsy etc

Rerate LOOONNNNNG overdue. Cash value has been rising each week and this has been static for months. 20p before Christmas

SteveE60 - I've been here since 2009 but mostly sat on the side-lines between 2012 - 2017, pity those who have suffered through the dilution. Saw this leg up for what it was and made a good return on stock bought sub 1p and advertised the logic trading in the 1.8-2p range. Many here were talking utter rubbish about 6-10p a month or so ago, the likes of Degsy, TaffEvans and whoever their little band of twitter followers are. The ONLY thing that will lead this to break out above 2p will be confirmation of the funding received from ANS. Until that happens, buy at this 1.4-1.5p level and offload stock around 1.8p. ANS have delayed their funding for months so it's not clear if that will happen this year of early next.

Good start to the day

I agree with you Juxtapose, this is not company specific weakness. The entire junior and midcap Precious Metals sector is down from the highs of the last run when gold climbed as high as $1550/oz. There is value to be had at this price and in other gold and precious metal producing stocks right now.

I'm forecasting HUM will bounce 30-40% from current levels once quarterly production results are released and we get a better idea of the net debt position. TSG likewise. AAZ, SHG, PAF, SLP etc are a little more steady and could do 20-30% in the lead up to and after results are announced. CEY, HGM, HOC, FRES, KAZ don't tend to swing too much but worth holding one or two around this time of year for the dividend and keeping the portfolio nicely weighted in precious metals.

The second half results for all these companies will be much improved on the first half. TSG offer the best dividend of them all, AAZ and HGM not too far behind.

Plenty of bullyboy tactics used here in the past couple of weeks to silence anything but ramptastic posts!

KEFI have no control over timescales here and any suggestions of completing in due course ignores all previous updates and logic. The last minute delays and new developments in the interim have helped stir interest and keep volumes relatively high but I wouldn't pass up selling in the 1.8 - 2p range and buying back around current levels. I have bought more today and will probably offload them in the next couple of weeks when we flirt with 1.8p again.

Talk of 6p, 8p, 10p is pure fantasy. KEFI won't command a valuation like that until TKGP is in production and the gold price trading higher. Look at the value of peer producers with very little debt or in cash - AAZ, TSG, SHG, HUM, AAU

Unless we receive some less than positive news out of the blue or the gold price dips I don't see this falling much further. Not many shares in the public hands, gold price stable above $1450 and dividend coming end of January. At this price there's plenty of value waiting to be unlocked. Tell your neighbour!

"the SHG sp has been in the doldrums for years" If you're taking a longer term outlook then I agree it's suffered worst than most, but for obvious reasons specific to the stock. Gold fell dramatically between 2011 and 2016 however this was coupled with the Acacia debacle owing to the government's stance on foreign miners. I know it can be tough selling at losses but sometimes you should as the opportunity cost (that is missing out on opportunies) will hit you harder over the long term.

In regards to the lack of dividends I'm not privy to the precise reasons but clearly debt overhang has been an issue and the speed in which it has been reducing up until recently has been very slow. That appears to be improving and with token VAT repayments coming up the prospects of a maiden dividend are looking rosier by the day.

TSG has been a standout performer for me this year and I was in at 33p when it was yielding more than 12% at the time, long before the crowd descended and managed to offload all the way up to 124p earlier this year. It's stuck in the doldrums at 70p thereabouts now like a number of other well regarded small-cap goldies, AAZ and HUM.

The recent leg up here from 5-6p to 10p was a sector driven rerate off the back of gold rising we would probably all agree and since then funds have left the sector. We are due the next set of quarterlies for these stocks in the next 6-8 weeks I believe and with gold remaining fairly strong throughout the quarter, I'm hoping to see more interest.

We should also expect some weakness as we are in the middle of Brexit and a General Election that could end up throwing the UK back into recession if handled poorly.

I thought todays update was largely positive, the alternate funding arrangement for the long term capital financing reduces the risk. Timescales have been pushed back but that was inevitable.

I may be wrong, but it's approximately 30km away so the potential to treat Sanankora as a satellite looks feasible. Especially when I am reading the current managements route to production would involve selective open pit methods to target higher grade (2g/t) at a rate of 2koz per month. It would require very little capital upfront if HUM were to process the ore at Yanfolia.

Tekeledougou is the name I couldn't remember earlier, only 7 or 8km away. Will be interesting to see how things play out.