RE: Outstanding potential value here 30 Oct 2013 16:09
In the company’s own words “Kalsaka/Sega is Amara's cash engine”. During Q2 2013 the mine plan for Sega was re-optimised at a gold price of US$1,100 per ounce in response to the weaker spot gold price targeting higher grade material to be processed early in the mine life ( 2.41g/t grade) reducing cash costs (to approx $700/oz). Given the average head grade of 1.13g/t during H1 resulted in cash costs of $1,357/oz Amara will be profitable once more.
Q2 gold sales fell from 8,600 ounces to 5,900 ounces. Production guidance remains at 50-60,000 ounces so Amara are expecting output to increase to 15-20,000 ounces produced in the next two quarters. Half yearly sales totalled only 14,500 of the 19,500 ounces produced. Worth noting cash and cash equivalents fell from $18m to $9m during the second quarter. The retaining of additional $4m worth of gold bullion helped offset the falling cash figure.
“During Q2 2013 the gold price was highly volatile… as a result, Amara chose to sell a limited amount of gold, representing only 59% of gold produced in the period, with a higher amount of bullion held in stock.
Production at SEGA is expected to last until the end of 2014, with a total of 97koz at 2.4g/t produced in the period.
- Crushing circuit upgraded by now.
- Haul road construction complete end of month.
- Trucking of Sega material already begun.
- Blast hole drilling has commenced and production from Sega began in Q3 2013.
- In addition “Amara continues to process stockpiled material and at 30 June 2013, Amara had 158,000 tonnes of transitional ore on its stockpile… it is anticipated that the Kalsaka heap leach pads will continue to produce gold for a minimum of six months after stacking concludes.”
All in sustaining cash costs represented an additional $126/oz during the first half or approx $9m per quarter which was used to fund capital and exploration costs. “A further US$7 million is estimated to be required to complete the project in full” (by end of 2014).
Breaking down the figures, there were 8.6k sold in Q1 for a gross revenue of almost $14m, with cash costs of $10.5m for a margin of approx $400/oz. This resulted in EBITDA of $3m. If we assume conservative cost reductions to $900/oz and a conservative gold price of $1300/oz that would see Amara back into the green with a margin of $400/oz, similar to Q113.
The sale of 8,600oz per quarter is however expected to double in subsequent periods so EBITDA should rise by a similar amount from $3.1m to approximately $6m.
However if the company succeeds in driving down costs to $700/oz and gold rises to $1400/oz during the fourth quarter, gross revenue for 17,000oz gold sold generates $24m, costs of $12m resulting in EBITDA of $10.8m per quarter going forward.
Any thoughts on these figures guys?