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Good to hear! Think I'm pretty close to b/e at this level. Yes Tom has a reputation but quite why I don't know... He called SMA wrong, made over 40% on that and many others made more before people sold on news. BrokermanDan is another tipster who seems to now have an obsession with SER or VOG, I forget which but he has lost his mojo I think... When we last exchanged emails we discussed the 'trend' however despite gold falling AMA and POG amongst others are gathering interest today. I wonder if this is simply down to company progress and the positive developments that are going on on the ground. Maybe gold bulls are hedging their bets that this is rock bottom and are 'bucking the trend'... Maybe Smaug has awoken and is hording all the gold to himself!?

I hope you're invested still, looks like AMA and POG are leading this sector into the new year. And despite the gold price falling today too!

It looks like interest is building, perhaps news or production progress has leaked. I think many are underestimating how important this quarter is as the company turns itself around. 14p being paid now :)

I agree todays news was a good opportunity to offload. Mineral Resources don't keep a company afloat or enable the payments of dividends and in the current climate provides only a short term 'relief' if I may call it that. I'm surprised there hasn't been more interest since the Amlib deal but again that is not what is going to pay dividends. Quarterly results are the important updates. The last set were poorer than most of us were expecting but gave us an indication of what is to come. I believe the next set will be markedly better, so much so that we will move into a new range. I'm expecting Amara to outperform most junior producers because of the recent operational changes, regardless of where gold is sat. Another one to look out for is Petropavlovsk which is making huge strides in repaying it's debt. POG is riskier if the gold price remains low however where as AMA are a safer bet in my view. Your right about the trend by the way and I agree it's not in our favour just yet. But days like today give us a good chance to trade our holdings and make some money whilst we await a reversal. I'm locked in above 14p but looking for some more towards the end of the month :) atb

pompey - we were making good headway in the 14-15p range before Q3 results were announced and the gold price fell to around the $1220 level. Both had a negative effect. The results in particular were poor due to one-off costs and pushing lower grade ore through from Kalsaka, a decision that will lead to greater output figures in the future. The gold price is undoubtedly having a dampening effect here. But we must remember costs were $1,300/oz and higher in previous months. This is scheduled to drop to below $800/oz. Also the Amlib deal allows Amara to increase it's cash equivalent holdings (ie gold) and use the cash instead assuming management believe the gold price will improve in future quarters. Is the gold price likely to fall much lower than the current level? If not then an improving picture for Amara should mean investors back this company instead of other producers which have not fundamentally changed their operations.

Whilst sentiment is low Amara are in a unique position and todays excitement is just a taster of what is to come, despite being in this depressed sector. A superb result with Yaoure today! I can't wait to see Q413 figures early next year though. We should be trading higher now that revenue and margins are improving contrary to most gold producers in this market.

Looking cheap now gold has bounced and currently moving towards $1260/oz

Yep the outlook is improving and will continue to despite the low gold price and sector sentiment being at its lowest.

http://dailyreckoning.com/when-gold-demand-awakes-a-sleeping-dragon

The price of platinum has fallen in recent days so I've reduced my holding in anticipation that 40-41p will appear in the coming months. Might be a bad call but I believe gold will rebound quicker so focusing on that sector. GLA

14p being paid now, looking better despite the gold price falling. Let's be clear those results were nothing special and YE production is now expected to be lower but this quarter was always going to slower than Q4. The fact that they lumped an awful lot of negatives, Kalsaka ore and unforeseen costs into the third quarter didn't help.

Micheboo - Quarter 3 results are due this month so perhaps those?

Thanks for your thoughts. What do you think will cause gold to break out/down? I'm just starting to get used to the current trading range; $1,270 - $1,360. In the short term US jobless figures are likely to support the bearish case but I remain optimistic. It suits China as they can buy cheap whilst adding credibility to the US dollar. But the debt ceiling is due to peak in January and then again later in 2014 should they raise the ceiling by a modest amount like last time. I think the picture is rather good for gold. As for Amara there are a number of catalysts that will push this higher in the short term. We are due to hear how much of a difference Sega production affects the financial picture. Costs reducing from $1,100/oz to $700/oz is equivalent to a gold price rising from $1,300/oz to $1,700/oz but this has yet to be factored into the equation. Additionally production of 8,000 ounces is expected to double at the very least. I am expecting somewhere in the region of $8-12m EBITDA in Q413 based on 15-20koz. This compares to just $3m EBITDA in Q113. The only bearish case short is if gold drops but then Amara are now much better positioned than earlier in the year. Took me a while realise this when I first looked into the figures, credit to scyther for spotting the potential. Since then Amara have gained $10m cash through the Amlib deal strengthening the balance sheet and means we could theoretically stockpile more gold in anticipation of a realising a higher sale price in the future. We could be looking at increased exploration activity next year with focus at Sega in order to extend the life of mine to beyond 2014 (stockpiles are expected to run down in mid-2015). Amara and W Resources are my two tips for the coming quarter, the latter is due to start producing which will reduce financial risks short term. Tertiary also seems to be rallying in anticipation of exciting drilling results and resource classification due early next year.

Unless it is stipulated in the lease, rents do not rise with inflation. Break clauses allow either party to negotiate rent however. I think I read that most of ALPH leases were for a period of 8 years with breaks every 4 on average. That said the company did state they where finding it difficult to attain 100% leaseholder value, the figure used was around 80% so there is scope for growth in that respect. I don't think dividends are an option either given their adequate cash position.

Yep this is now drifting with the gold price however Sega production is still hugely profitable at this level. This will be reflected in Q4 results which are due in January. Expecting this to rise to 15-16p if gold hits $1350/oz again before making further gains as we approach the new year. What are your thoughts?

Well I work in the property sector and it's not often you come across a stock in this sector 30% up given the wider macro situation hence my 'digging deeper'. I agree Paris is likely to be sheltered somewhat from the effects of deflation and recession. That said there are structural problems specific to France which will only worsen with the current Socialist government in power. Regarding rates they are at historic lows and if left at 0.25% will have long term consequences to pension schemes as well as the cost of living. I haven't looked into the previous yearly cash-flow and debt position but given their post tax profits I don't see a clear route through to repaying debt, never mind returning to a dividend paying company. As for rates many people in the UK are coping with their mortgage repayments at 0.5% but will lose their home if rates rise a half percentage point. It is an interesting hedge in that if the Euro weakens further shareholders should benefit from the currency exchange. But the risk is that if commodity or import inflation takes hold in the peripheral countries with residents priced out of basic goods the ECB may have no option but to raise rates.

Minesite Article http://minesite.com/news/amara-mining-brings-in-us-10-million-of-new-money-to-progress-with-baomahun-and-yaoure

The French economy contracted by 0.1 per cent, snuffing out signs of revival in the previous three months. It had been expected to post quarterly growth of 0.1 per cent and has now shrunk in three of the last four quarters. France is becoming a focus for concern within the currency bloc. The Bank of France predicts the economy will expand by 0.4 per cent in the last quarter of the year but the government's labour and pension reforms are widely viewed as too timid. A report on French competitiveness by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that it is falling behind southern European countries that have cut labour costs and become leaner and meaner. ‘To reduce the economic lag and lost time, France needs to keep up structural reforms,’ OECD chief Angel Gurria said. The report will be hard for the government to ignore since it was commissioned by President Francois Hollande. Compounding the French gloom, private sector payroll data showed some 17,000 jobs were destroyed in the third quarter, while inflation slowed in October to 0.7 per cent, the weakest level in four years, when France was emerging from a deep recession. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2507205/Eurozone-economy-virtually-stagnant-just-0-1-growth-French-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks.html#ixzz2kjpAYAya

Just digging a little further, it seems the company's accounting department is pushing the NAV up through adjustments. The real NAV per share is 14.7p - the company has made adjustments for the effect of the fair value revaluation of the properties, currency swap and interest rate swap derivatives, deferred tax provisions & rental guarantee income. Given the uncertainty in the EU and with the French economy still suffering from its ever increasing debt mountain I wonder how 'fair' those property & lease valuations are... note the last line... "The adjusted net assets are presented to provide what the Company believes is a more relevant assessment of the Group's net asset position. The Company has determined that certain fair value and accounting requirements, as adjusted in the above table, may not be realisable in the longer term."

I understand that the NAV is up from 28p to 30p but as you say the recent correction seems to be related to the hedge settlement which is presumably now secured. Note the fixed term 5.26% interest payable on the €240m, which I make to be approx €12.5m per annum. I haven't read into the details but I presume once these borrowings mature in 2015 they will need to arrange new terms whereby rates are predicted to be 2-3 base points higher. It is an interesting short term play though, still in the uptrend but not tempted at this level. GL