Member Info for the_shareminator

If I would advise one thing it would be to set some limit sells at higher prices. More often than not this stock moves very quickly on little volume as the MM's struggle to fill large quantities or sizable orders. By setting high limit sells you are able to squeeze the market if stock is short as the MM's will look to match trades. If they can't match them, the spread here will jump by considerable amounts. My friends are aware of this also and we believe it works better than trying to sell a trade 'at best'. We haven't seen 5-6p yet but I've seen worse stocks perform greater feats before. There is always the potential that during a stock squeeze with a little more buying than usual, MBO will be taken up to a completely different level altogether. The worst thing placing limit sells at higher prices would mean is showing the MM's a level at which people are willing to dispose of stock which is why it's important to sell in smaller chunks at different levels. With only 21% of shares in 'official' free-float and most of these sat dormant in peoples accounts it won't take much volume to see us break recent highs of 4.25

Yesterday was indicative of a few investors waking up to the potential here. This whilst media has been virtually nil for over a year now. The £8.3k buy filled at 3.40 is a fantastic result for whoever managed to accumulate that many in one purchase. Those selling at 2.75 a day earlier will be kicking themselves soon. GL to the three of us and anyone else invested :)

I'm not entirely sure of the rules but I had thought it was around 30% that a mandatory offer was required. In any case he has always owned more than 33% of the company since listing in 2007 and so I don't think it's ever needed to be addressed. Shame about the pullback today on low volumes. Waiting patiently

Long term value added however it will take 8 months or more before this is properly reflected in results. Last set of accounts were very poor but should be the bottom. Board guidance sounds promising. Come back on a quieter day though..

Up to 46p ASK and little traders about. Dividend to come.

3.7 on the BID 3.998 on the ASK

Maybe back to 48-50p http://www.investegate.co.uk/northern-bear-plc--ntbr-/rns/trading-update/201606010700067639Z/ MBO and NTBR two in two days. Next :)

Full year results in 4 weeks. The trader in me thinks this might be worth a punt but expecting soft figures, reduced profits and depleting cash position. Dividend of 2.35p will be slashed as it's working off a 28% ratio to profits so maybe 1.6-1.8p Not sure why this has been delayed either

6p would be an incredible result but wholly achievable valuing the company at about £6m, not much to ask for a company that turned £53m in the previous financial year and likely around £65m in 2015. Due to the size of the business and increasing gross profits whilst net debt continues to fall, loss making ventures stripped out and costs cut, profits could very quickly jump higher than my forecasts. Finance costs for example will fall back in the coming years closing the gap between operating profit and PBIT. In the second half 2014 this was £379k and £270k respectively. Disposing of loss making assets, reducing costs, increasing customer base should all contribute to a very profitable second half trading. MBO’s international remittance services (IRS), of which they had 6 continued to ‘incur losses’ and was subsequently discontinued in the first half 2015. We can deduce that had they been disposed of earlier, the headline operating profit figure of £218,664 would have been much higher. At least second half results will reflect this. Good luck :)

It would be disappointing if it fell all the way back to £2.5m again yes. My conservative expectations were for £450-500k PBIT and another net debt reduction which should see interest return enough to have shares trade between 3-4p The first half 2016 results due in September are what I'm most looking forward to however as we should hear the company move from net debt to holding net cash for the first time. Also worth bearing in mind the higher the share price climbs the more likely liquidity will return and that is what is so desperately needed to ensure regular trading and interest remains. Do you have similar research / targets?

Hi FCell, thankyou for your sharing your thoughts, more than I could have asked for :) I understand your reasoning behind ARL's 55p 'safe asset valuation' and more to the point the prospects of an enhanced share price going forward. Alternative energy might have fallen out of favour in recent months as oil prices plunged but as they recover, we might expect markets to look more favorably upon low risk AE investments with profitable potential. I'm not clued up with the numbers so taking your figures at face value I would need to research and come to my own conclusions. Can you possibly share some firm sources regarding revenue, profit margins and value data that is of relevance to ARL's situation? Good to hear management have their feet firmly on the ground, will read up some more. Thanks again for posting :)

Thanks apps! Honestly, I know nothing more than the next person. I've just been through every report and drawn out analysis from the management's previous decisions and company's past trading performance. I think today's bounce was long overdue. There was no reason why it should have taken so long to rerate however now that it has we may see some more regular trading activity. As it happens the charts show that trading activity picks up around end of May, beginning of June time normally as the Final Results date approaches. If you check the volumes only a few years ago when shares changed hands for around 3-5p you can correlate the share price movement relative to annual results and company performance. Volumes trickled away once losses began to mount and they have never truly returned since despite the occasional relief rally. Every bit of me thinks we are on the verge of seeing renewed interest once the company confirms profitable trading in both halves of 2015 with a strong outlook for 2016 expected.

That little tiddler i mentioned has just woken up ;)

Perhaps in time. The market is aware of developments however it's likely to get worse before things get better (in respect of net debt). One to watch certainly as 2016 draws to an end. Possible winner for 2017 - 2018

Missed all the fun today. Good to see some new faces on here. As we've seen previously there is very little stock in freefloat and todays total volume of 728,337 whilst nice, is a drop in the ocean to what we will likely see once shares become more liquid at higher levels. Strong into the close also, with a market cap of only £4m. Don't expect results tomorrow or even a trading update. Heck, the company have just woken up and released a 'no reason' statement as they are obliged to do. Real news to come end of June and later in September. Unloved for too long, now let's wait and see what happens :) GLA Full analysis here http://shareminator.blogspot.com or http://shareminator.blogspot.hk/

BOOOM :D

eServGlobal develops mobile software solutions to support mobile financial services, with a focus on emerging markets. According to Edison Research, ESG has reiterated its target of breaking even at the EBITDA level for FY16 following two material contract wins towards the end of Q216. The first quarter was particularly weak contributing to an EBITDA loss in H116 but a combination of initiatives to cut costs and boost revenue should see a much improved second half performance. Listed on the ASX but primarily trade on AIM the market values the company around £13m or 5p. This after a torrid year for holders as the share price collapsed from 20p to below 3p. EBITDA breakeven however is only part of the picture as the business is not profitable nor close to being able to stand on its own two feet. Despite the improving trend eServGlobal generated revenues of €5.5m in H116 and expects to report an EBITDA loss of nearly as much (circa €4.5-5m) Forecasts for H216 suggest revenues around €9.5m and EBITDA of around €5m Is this achievable? The brokers have pointed out roughly one-third of H216 revenues are contracted so the company will need to generate €7.5m of new business and retain similar margins to meet forecasts. If Edison's reporting or the company's past performance to generate contract wins and meet forecasts is anything to go by I would think it not achievable this year. The company are optimistic they will perform better in the second half however and Edison suggest guidance of 'very small positive EBITDA in FY16' however I doubt they will break even. In FY17 they are hoping for €1.3m (6.1% margin) but it's too far off to say if that number holds any credibility. Edison have reduced their forecasts to current levels and this is quite likely to happen again in my view. Glimmers of hope exist. The company expects to reach operating cash break-even on a monthly run rate basis in Q416 due to reduced debtor days among other things. The value of it's 35% HomeSend stake looks to be increasing as it expands and will be revalued in September 2016. If growth is stronger than expected pushed forwards by the JV partners it could quickly boost the value of ESG's asset value. Net debt is forecast to reach €10.7m next year and without a substantial amount of contract wins this trend is unlikely to continue. The current cash position could quickly dwindle if the company find itself in difficulty and it's expected to run down possibly into 2018 so more cash will be required down the line. I wouldn't be holding right now unless a string of contracts land.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/320744/stockwatch%3A-why-markets-look-well-supported

I'm interested but just sitting it out for now. Sometimes a good long term stock can rise too quickly and 'look expensive' to the market. That's not to say people won't trade it. If volumes pick up and momentum shifts then it will be time to accumulate but for now it's drifting down towards Carnegies's 55p call. It would be nice to hear some optimistic thoughts and catalysts as to why this might change soon. Were results ahead of expectations?

What do you make of the new leadership direction? No shareholding so either in charge on merit or following orders. Results will paint a picture of performance. Will they retain the 6-7% dividend? Tricky given acquisitions. Might be worth adding in July or August at this level. The Bear comes first looking at timelines. Don't forget the forgotten tiddler I like with FY15 and HY16 results out in June and September respectably.