Quick recap4 Jun 2016 05:45
Q116
10,822 ounces of gold produced
"Quarterly production for the remainder of 2016 is expected to increase progressively to approximately 14,000 ounces by the fourth quarter of 2016 as production from below 750 meters increases over the course of 2016."
Q116 costs fell to $689/oz as fixed costs are spread across higher production. Likewise AISC fell to $950/oz
The average realised gold price in Q116 was $1,166/oz.. This resulted in gross profits of $3,888,000. Net profits were particularly poor, just $543,000 due to a deferred tax charge of $0.9m
Sales for Q1 2016 will include production from the Quarter plus the work in progress brought forward from 2015 of 671 ounces.
If we break it down, 10,822 ounces produced for just $689 and sold for an average $1166/oz yields $477/oz gross profit and after AISC it yields profit of $216/oz in the period. 671/oz were produced in a previous quarter were sold on distorting figures slightly but we can see that net profits would have been $1.44m if not for the deferred tax charge. The company provided guidance that cash from operating activities was in fact $1,749,000.
If we assume that's just from the 10,822oz PRODUCED in the quarter it means each ounce produced a little less than $162/oz
Now here is where things get really interesting :)
1) CMCL are expecting 14,000 ounces in each of the 3 remaining quarters.
2) Already the price of gold has surged much higher than the prevailing quarter.
3) cash costs and AISC will fall as they are spread across increased production.
If we assumed margins were to be the same as last quarter than increased production of 14,000 ounces would result in cash from operating activities rising from $1,749,000 to $2,263,000 in Q216.
HOWEVER margins have increased! Do we know the exact figure? No, because the price of gold has fluctuated and also so will daily production however we could make a conservative estimate that due to higher production Q216 cash costs will fall to $665/oz and AISC will fall to $915/oz.
Between January and March (Q1) gold rose steadily from $1060/oz to around $1260/oz and so the average sale price came in at $1166/oz. What we might expect. The case for higher average gold price sales this quarter is stronger given gold has traded in the range of $1210/oz and $1300/oz. My own calculations across Q2 so far tell me it will be a conservative average of $1240/oz.
If we break it down, 14,000 ounces produced for just $665/oz and sold for an average $1240/oz yields $575/oz gross profit and after AISC it yields profit of $325/oz in the period. These are huge differences to the last quarter results showing a surge in profit especially after AISC. And it must be said these are my conservative estimates and I expect the company will surprise us with better margins.
Cash from operating activities will be closer to $3,200,000 in my view