Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Last I checked we are on course for a 12% dividend in 2024 although this may have changed with the geopolitical upheaval in the ME and with the investment / farm-in news. Things move very quickly though, just this past week the oil price has rallied nearly 8% on the deteriorating situation in the Red Sea, somewhat zealous headlines pushed by Middle Eastern media outlets to spur on the price of oil (no doubt there are vested interests) and welcome relief for the oil producers who were just a month earlier contemplating sub-$70/bbl prices.
Pedro61 - "6 months wait for 13.5p....or invest in a rising market.....?....and what happens if the offer gets turned down?.....Even lower price again?"
Why would the share price be lower in 6 months time if we are in to quote your phrase "a rising market"?
If shareholders vote down this derisory offer it will have been because they believe the market valuation should be over and above 13.5p. Support for this market valuation will be underpinned as the amount of cash on the balance sheet balloons $10-15m each quarter! Nice try though..
Misleading headline from Alliance News, the suggestion being Shanta has already agreed to the takeover. It's clear in the article the takeover HAS NOT been accepted yet, it has only been rubber stamped by a sell-out board but the headline should make this clear!
There will be no takeover if shareholders with a combined total of 25% or more vote AGAINST. Or in other words it needs 75% to succeed and right now they have 19.2% only!
Here is the offending piece copied below.
Shanta Gold accepts GBP140 million takeover offer from ETC Holdings
(Alliance News) - Shanta Gold Ltd on Wednesday said its board has agreed to an all-cash takeover offer from industrial conglomerate ETG that values East Africa-focused gold producer at just above GBP140 million.
Saturn Resources Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ETC Holdings (Mauritius) Ltd, offered 13.5 pence per Shanta share in cash, valuing all its equity at GBP142.0 million. Shanta shareholders also will receive an interim dividend of up to 0.15p to be declared by the Shanta board and paid prior to the takeover.
Shanta shares were up 2.4% at 12.95p on Wednesday afternoon in London. The stock is up 41% over the past year.
ETC Holdings is an investing company that is the controlling shareholder of ETC Group. The industrial conglomerate, which trades as ETG, operates in agricultural commodities, metal and energy. It also encompasses agricultural inputs and logistics, as well as other businesses.
ETG is controlled by Ketan Patel, Birju Patel and Mahesh Patel, with Ketan Patel already a member of the Shanta board.
The offer for Shanta has been accepted by its first and second largest shareholder, with 8.7% and 8.6% voting rights each, as well as by Shanta directors representing another 1.9%. It has 19.2% acceptances for the offer in total so far.
"As a shareholder in Shanta, we remain supportive of management and their strategy," Ketan Patel said. "However, we believe that Shanta's share price may inhibit Shanta's ability to deliver on its strategy and potential to maximise future shareholder returns."
Patel added: "As part of ETC Holdings, Shanta will benefit from the experience and connections of ETC Holdings and ETG in East Africa and as a result, have additional support during the currently heightened levels of macro-instability."
By Tom Waite, Alliance News editor
* and the financial gains Shanta are generating every quarter!
"Anyone fancy organising a campaign?"
With 200+ replies and counting the campaign is already beginning to take shape. The vast majority of ordinary private investors commenting recognise the offer is below fair value and are prepared to vote against. I'm sure more information on Bidco will come to light but my gut feeling is this is opportunistic and will fail given how narrow the premium was at the open today and the financial gains being made every quarter!
My intention is to hold and vote down this initial offer. GLA
Major shift in Federal Reserve sentiment this week
- Deeper rate cuts next year (at least three)
- US inflation is expected to cool faster than initially anticipated
- One final hike forecast for this year has been removed
- The revised benchmark next year has been revised down from 5.1% to 4.6%
- The forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 3.9% to 3.6%
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/fed-keeps-rates-steady-but-sees-more-rate-cuts-for-2024-3255944
HarChris I share your sentiment, the buzz last night of $2100+ fizzled away as the day has gone on. We just need to keep in mind if the price of gold remains above $2,000/oz Shanta will be generating headline worthy profits from the highest margins we have to date.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
I think markets have fully turned now and are finally waking up to the reality of high commodity inflation, particularly precious metals whose supply and demand are neither controlled (unlike oil - OPEC) nor have they kept pace with inflation owing to a persistently strong dollar / weaker basket of alternate major currencies. The USD is weakening now and funds have been pulling out of US longs since early November, the culmination of factors along with rising tensions in the Middle East (US military vessels attacked yesterday). All this should continue to support buyer demand for gold, silver and platinum.
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-gold-price-surges-to-the-all-time-high-above-2-130-on-weaker-us-fed-rate-cut-bet-202312032331
Top riser among mid-tier goldies today, beaten only by Hummingbird (which is highly volatile).
In case anyone missed it or for future reference, the USD has weakened to it's lowest point since August, sending gold up to 7 month highs of $2,042/oz. Growing anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by spring 2024 has sparked an exodus of hedge funds out of long dollar positions according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Data from the CFTC released today shows these funds slashed their exposure from $10 billion in the first week of November to just $4.5 billion in the week ending Nov. 14.
Now precious metal prices are enjoying a long overdue release the knock-on effect to producers should swiftly follow as we are seeing today. Most PGM stocks are still bubbling away way below 2021-2022 levels despite the recent gains and continuing bullish forecasts.
Holding long and strong, no advice intended.
* $15.3m cash on hand at end of Q3 which is probably closer to $17m now.
Can't believe Serabi is falling on a day gold is trading up near 6 month highs!
£15.3m cash on hand at end of Q3 which is probably closer to £17m now. Throwing off substantial amounts of free cash relative to it's current £23m market value ($29m). Well positioned for a maiden dividend when final results are released towards end of Spring next year IMO
"ROBUST GOLD PRODUCTION EXPECTED FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2023"
Gold production expected to be between 94,000oz to 98,000oz (H1 FY2023: 92,307oz) with an increased lower estimate for full year 2024 production guidance of between 180,000oz to 190,000oz (FY2023: 175,209oz).
Very welcome update with the operational update due January 2024.
Newly released 3 year production and cost forecast
- Total group gold production from exceeding 1 million ounces from 2024 through 2026
- AISC reducing by over $200/oz from current $1450/oz level
“The release of our three-year forecast during the quarter shows the company's organic growth path to increase ounces and improve margins across the group. The Syama North Phase I Expansion project should enable stable gold production in excess of 260 000 oz/y with the flexibility of having two reliable sources of ore. At Mako, we have two extremely strong years ahead of us with production around 135 000 oz/y at very healthy margins,” Holohan said.
Resolute now net cash positive for the first time in what must be a decade!?
At the latest quarterly update to September 2023 there was a $19 million swing to the green in liquid assets, as net debt of $17.2m swung to $2m net cash on the balance sheet! This figure included Cash and crucially Bullion of $78.0 million which should have increased in value since quarter end as the gold price continued to rise.
Internal Q4 cash generation forecasts must look particular strong even despite the reduction in guidance with capex forecasts reduced. Net cash on the balance sheet may well be $20m+ by the end of 2023.
Share price has been creeping up this past month, almost 20% up in fact to levels not seen since May. Compared to peers PAF is outperforming all the major and mid-tier London listed gold producers in the past month and not far behind the smaller risers like AAZ and HUM (which have been much more volatile this past year)
Taseko Mines Announces that the UIC Permit for Florence Copper is now Effective
Oct. 31, 2023 - Taseko Mines Limited is pleased to announce that the US Environmental Protection Agency ("EPA") has confirmed that no appeals have been received and Florence Copper's final Underground Injection Control ("UIC") permit is now effective.
Stuart McDonald, President and CEO of Taseko, commented, "Successful completion of the UIC permitting process is a result of Taseko's long-term development approach, and the quality and environmental integrity of the project. Taseko is now in a unique position, with one of the very few fully permitted mining projects in North America. With the final permit in hand, we have a clear line of vision to commercial production and are that much closer to realizing the full value of Florence Copper."
Florence Copper, located in Arizona, USA, is the next copper mine development for Taseko. The Company anticipates that Florence Copper will be one of the greenest sources of copper for U.S. domestic consumption, with carbon emissions, water and energy consumption all dramatically lower than a conventional copper mine. Florence Copper is projected to be a low-cost copper producer, expected to manufacture 85 million pounds per year of LME Grade A copper cathode in the United States.
Correction to Gold Sales at Realised Gold Price: Revenue (implied)
* Q2 2023: 29,406oz (NGLM 20,704oz + Singida 8,702oz) at $1954/oz: $57.46m
Data taken from the Q4 2022 results released January and each of the quarterly presentations for 2023 to date. Values are normally derived on the final day of the quarter although some figures like share price / market value are derived on the day the presentation is released.
Share Price (Market Capitalisation)
Q4 2022: 12.1p per share ($153 million)
Q1 2023: 13p per share ($170 million)
Q2 2023: 10.6p per share ($137 million)
Q3 2023: 10.5p per share ($135 million)
Debt vs Liquid Assets
Q4 2022: $24.1m gross debt vs $10.5m cash & gold dore: ($13.6m) net debt
Q1 2023: $29.6m gross debt vs $10m cash & gold dore: ($19.6m) net debt
Q2 2023: $29.6m gross debt vs $21m cash & gold dore: ($8.6m) net debt
Q3 2023: $21.4m gross debt vs $16.5m cash & gold dore: ($4.9m) net debt
Group Production
Q4 2022: 16,742oz
Q1 2023: 15,317oz
Q2 2023: 29,454oz (NGLM 19,338oz + Singida 10,116oz)
Q3 2023: 27,935oz (NGLM 18,271oz + Singida 9,664oz)
Gold Sales at Realised Gold Price: Revenue (implied)
Q4 2022: 16,621oz at $1,731/oz: $28.77m
Q1 2023: 15,995oz at $1,918/oz: $30.68m
Q2 2023: 29,406oz (NGLM 20,704oz + Singida 8,702oz) at $1954/oz: $40.52m
Q3 2023: 25,016oz (NGLM 17,447oz + Singdiga 7,569) at $1930/oz: $48.28m
In terms of known near term value drivers it sounds to me like the Board are adopting a policy of improving production efficiencies, a low capital and immediately beneficial route to adding value through improved rates of recovery, lower operating costs and maintaining good margins. According to the latest update Singida is currently operating at a rate above internal forecasts and assuming it can be maintained this quarter there is a very high chance of Shanta beating the upper end production guidance of 98,000oz - I believe they need to produce around 25,800oz to hit that level. From what it appears both at NGLM and Singida there has been a degree of stockpiling, particularly in the last quarter which will boost the next quarterly revenue numbers I'd imagine once they have been sold.
Should be looking at around 100koz FY23 production and net cash position of $6-8m, a huge improvement over the course of the year and with gold prices trading 10-15% higher than a year ago and 2024 set to be another record year in terms of production, revenue and cash-flow I'd be surprised if we don't see a gradual rerating through the quarter and beyond.
I'd wager every single sensible investors here is holding multiple stocks in their portfolios, some related via sectors, commodity prices, locality or geopolitical events. I don't see any problem with investors who want to discuss these things posting cross boards. As long as it's kept to it's own thread, it's easy enough to navigate around and if you're not interested, simply scroll past. On topic here all of my O&G stocks are performing poorly this month: SQZ, BP, ENOG, DEC, HBR, UJO, HTG and I3E... some more so than others. I wouldn't be selling I3E today based on current price vs fundamentals though
With gold futures up to $1997/oz and Shanta due to release what is anticipated to be another stellar quarterly update next week it's surprising we haven't broken 2023 highs already!