George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
The market is forward looking but it's worth pointing out CAML comfortably achieved their 2023 guidance and ended the year with a cash position marginally below where it sat a year after (post dividends of more than $20m).
Copper production guidance - 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes vs actual 13,816 tonnes
Zinc production guidance - 19,000 to 21,000 tonnes vs actual 20,338 tonnes
Lead production guidance - 27,000 to 29,000 tonnes vs actual 27,794 tonnes
Guidance for 2024 has been set at the same level as 2023 with gross margins having only reduced by 5-10% yet the share price is down almost 45% in the past 12 months! All debts cleared in the prior year, reduced financing costs therefore and now their sizeable cash pile is benefitting from higher interest rates. Even assuming a 25% cut in the total FY dividend from 20p to 15p CAML are still yielding 10% and with the USD set to weaken in the second half that should provide relief for base metal commodities.
After watching this sh*t-show debacle orchestrated by grubby Patel and supported by our Board of weasels it really is no surprise they have managed to find a 'get-out' and postpone the inevitable smackdown! If we had an INDEPENDANT board they would not be recommending this ridiculous offer.
Last minute cancellation of plans is a smack in the teeth to all those funds who had arranged to attend in person (no doubt some would have voted down the offer). I wonder if this waste of everyone's time and money at the last minute will strengthen the resolve of those who are planning to vote down the offer.
I'm assuming they have deferred the vote and added the paragraph concerning no additional third party interest to dissuade those on the fence from voting down the offer.
If the Board bothered to report on actual feedback from Shanta shareholders they wouldn't be continuing down this path to enrich the Patels at our expense!
Shame on all of them for lacking the backbone to stand up and do what is right.
When Shanta was ramping up people were selling at 9p. There will always be reasons for people to purchase or dispose of holdings regardless of the value proposition and catalysts. We don’t have long to wait now to find out if group production and cashflow forecasts can be achieved
Sylvania are expected to yield 6-7% assuming they continue with their previously announced dividend policy to pay the initial third at half year and basket prices hold up. PGM prices have already collapsed and with regional uncertainty surrounding the future of marginal mines in South Africa we can probably say with some degree of confidence the basket price won't drop another 50% from current levels.
Dividend Policy - effective 1 July 2022, the New Dividend Policy will be able to pay out a minimum of 40% of adjusted free cash flow for the financial year. Where annual dividends are declared, these will be paid in two tranches with an interim dividend equating to one third of the forecast full dividend and the final dividend equating to the remaining unpaid balance of the minimum of 40% of actual adjusted free cash flow. The payment of dividends remains at the discretion of the Board.
Hi kaduval, confirming I've already cast my my votes, cheers!
besides filtronic the other major defence stocks worth dabbling in include bae, qinetiq, bab****, chemring, avon protection, rolls royce, serco and possibly senior.
Canaccord Genuity's updated research into precious metals companies up to the 30.01.24 posted on Hot Copper shows just how undervalued Resolute Mining is at today's share price.
EV / EBITDA 2024 estimate: 1.23 dropping to just 0.76 in 2025
Price / NAV: 0.38
FCF Yield 2025 estimate: 29.9%
Analyst Target price: AUD $1.15 (60p equivalent)
Bangrak - I can only imagine the people who disagreed with you were shareholders and fearful therefore of the worst case scenarios playing out. It's obviously not great for those still holding and sitting on losses.
Those of us who have held Sylvania in the past and are looking for an opportune time to reinvest aren't too interested in talking down the stock either, as it so often rubs people up the wrong way.
The positives in 2023
- Turned cash positive, reducing net debt by $45.6 million in 2023 with year end net cash of $14 million
- Declared a maiden Ore Reserve at Syama North
- Undertook first phase of Syama expansion funded out of free cash flow
- Mako outperformed exceeding its 117 koz full-year guidance
- Exploration success in both Senegal and Guinea
- Q4 improvement in underground grades
The not so positives
- Q2 and Q3 2023 production challenges owing to lower grades
- Mako gold production expected to be weighted towards H2 (approximately 55%) in 2024
Catalysts
- Phase I Expansion / Syama Sulphide Conversion Project (SSCP) on track for commissioning in H1 2025
- Exploratory work at Mako to extend mine life beyond 2026
- Q4 2023 gold poured of 80,307 oz (Q3 2023: 74,056 oz)
- Q4 2023 AISC of $1,480/oz (Q3 2023: $1,459/oz)
- Q4 2023 revenue of approximately $155 million generated from gold sales of 79,480oz at an average realised gold price of $1,954/oz (Q3 2023: 76,524oz at an average realised gold price of $1,917/oz)
Q4 2023 operating cash flows of $30.8 million (Q3 2022: $22.8 million for Q3)
- Full-year group gold production: 330,994 oz (FY 2022: 353,069oz)
- Group 2023 All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $1,470/oz (2022: $1,498/oz)
- Unaudited 2023 revenue of approximately $630 million ($651 million in 2022)
- Full-year 2023 operating cash flows of $142.0 million (FY 2022: $90.9 million)
- Full year 2023 EBITDA of approximately $165 million (FY 2022: $148 million)
- Net Cash of $14.0 million (Q3 2022: $2.2 million) including Cash and Bullion of $85.2 million
- 2023 Capital Expenditure of $70.4 million (2022: $66.2 million)
2024 Guidance
· 2024 Group production guidance of 345,000 - 365,000 oz at an AISC of $1,300 -1,400/oz
· 2024 Group capital expenditure guidance of $115-145 million split between Syama, Mako and Exploration of $90-110 million, $15-20 million and $10-15 million respectively
Gavster - That may be different if the board declared an intention to buy back stock. Sylvannia Platinum did it with free cash while continuing to pay a 12% dividend at the time. When conducted in tandem with regular dividend payments they don't reward sellers either.
To be clear nobody is against the dividend nor for scrapping it in favour of a buyback. However there comes a point when the share price is on it's knees and the yield is in double digits when a company acts to preserve shareholder value. That is exactly what a buyback is for.
Whether cheap 17-18p stock held in reserves is then raided for bonus payments down the line, offered to an institution looking to take a sizeable stake of the company at an attractive price or simply cancelled is secondary. Buying back stock is preferable to pursuing unsupported dividend hikes / special dividends etc, the like of which only encourages traders and not long term investors! AAZ pursued that hopeless policy and look at the share price now, on it's knees.
kenj - Well it does happen that way on occasion, I've been invested in a stock when it was announced following a buy back some time in the preceding months. That it happens less frequently than cancellation is true.
In terms of reducing the share capital (by buyback and cancellation) the short term effect is the same. Availability of 'cheap' shares reduces, the market awareness drives the price creating liquidity in a higher range, assuming all other factors being equal.
UK shareholders would benefit more from a share buy-back than an increased dividend payment as already mentioned, we are being taxed for the latter. With that said, either or are preferable to the company fast tracking debt repayments at this point given ring-fencing of Mintails.
Pan African buying back stock adds capital to it's reserves which can be released to an institutional investor at a later time for a premium and in the short term increases confidence in the stock at these low levels while maintaining liquidity at a higher price level.
CAML already yield more than 10%. I'd much rather they entertained a buy-back with the share price currently on it's knees. Improves earnings, shows the market the board is serious about generating shareholder returns and there is always the option of selling these shares at a premium to a prospective fund when market conditions / trading improve.
Worried we will wake up one morning to a low ball takeover. UK resource and commodity sector looks very attractive right now.
More details about TCM Wealth available
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08603093/filing-history
TCM Wealth have declared their 12 million holding today.
This looks to be a spin off subsidiary under Trium Holdings Ltd, it has a barebones website that has only been live for 6 months, company name change 3 months prior to that.
There is a fair amount of information on their activities under the 'Consolidated accounts of parent company for subsidiary company period ending 31/12/22' dated 09 Oct 2023 which would indicate they are not in the game of ploughing money into a 6 month long takeover process for a 5% return.
Taseko Announces a 26% Increase in Annual Copper Production from its Gibraltar Mine
VANCOUVER, BC, Jan. 10, 2024 -- Taseko Mines Limited (TSX: TKO) (NYSE American: TGB) (LSE: TKO) ("Taseko" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Gibraltar mine produced 34 million pounds of copper and 369 thousand pounds of molybdenum in the fourth quarter of 2023. For the full year, Gibraltar produced 123 million pounds of copper, well above guidance and 26% higher than the previous year.
Copper production in the fourth quarter was supported by strong copper grades of 0.27% with ore from the lower benches of the Gibraltar pit. Mill throughput in the quarter averaged 83,000 tons per day and was impacted by additional downtime for maintenance and monitoring of the ball mill in concentrator #2.
Copper sales volumes in the fourth quarter were 36 million pounds, and year-end concentrate inventories remained above normal levels.
Stuart McDonald, President and CEO of Taseko, commented, "The strong finish to 2023 is expected to continue in 2024 as the Gibraltar pit will remain the main source of ore for the first half of this year."
Scottkent - "does this mean my shares/money are stuck in limbo for many months? I just wonder if this is a way for the bidder/buyer to freeze the share price while the gold price increases?"
If you believe this scheme will be voted down whenever the vote is set to take place AND the share price will rerate in line with the gold price and operational performance during the period on the announcement shareholders have fought off this hostile takeover then it's simply a waiting game.
It would be similar to putting savings into a 1 year fixed-rate account only this won't take a year to resolve and the rerate following resumption of normal trading conditions will be significantly higher than 5-6% annual return from a savers account.
Liquidating their position at any old price is a sign of troubles unrelated to Petards. This kind of thing happens, creating an opportunity for new and existing shareholders to come in and take up stock at an attractive price.
First full week back so I'd suggest it's simply city boys and girls making portfolio adjustments.
Adw - "We might think it’s worth x, y or z but it’s the old adage that’s it’s real value is what someone is prepared to pay for it. If nobody else wants to bid higher we have our price. We may all thinks it too cheap but we’re hardly an impartial bunch are we!"
In ordinary day to day trading you are correct however in the context of a company buyout, the company's 'real value' is determined by what shareholders are prepared to accept!
Previously the Board (in their partisan wisdom) chose not to pursue offers with three interested parties previously. Had there been a more impartial board perhaps talks with have gone further but we can only speculate.
I agree a competing offer at a higher level sends the share price higher, that would suit shareholders but it would not suit our largest shareholder (by connected interests). It shouldn't be particularly concerning in the event of no counter offers though, as there may be a myriad of reasons why interested parties choose not to buy Shanta. If it was a concern then every listed company on the markets would and should be expected to receive regular take over offers until they are taken private. That would be pretty ludicrous.
With the Board having lined up behind Patel who has the backing of a billion dollar fund and is clearly working against the interests of Shanta shareholders here in order to pick up these assets cheap we can vote down the offer and see how the market valuation reacts.
As shareholders we don't HAVE to accept any hostile offer regardless of Board recommendations or offer price which will in every circumstance be below fair value as they attempt to take the company off the market at the lowest price.