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alquemie thanks for your comments which are as interesting and informative as always.appreciate i should have used wholesale price not retail which means any back go the envelope calculations by me need to increase number of cans required by about 50%.c'est la vie!
i have to apologise for conflating two different scenarios in my last post by entitling it "clawback".what i was really interested in were the milestone payments.i appreciate that to trigger payment of the clawback(the8m euros held back from the original development and launch payments under the 2014 agreement) recordati need to reach sales levels contemplated under the original 2014 agreement within 3 years of launch and i fully accept that on the basis of the countries so far launched and the time remaining since launch that is simply not going to happen.my opinion only and i might be wrong but its looking pretty unlikely.
what i did wonder might be possible if unlikely was recordati reaching the revised level of aggregate sales required under the2017 revised licence to trigger part of the revised milestone payments (going up to 15.6m euros).in my last post i said this has to be achieved within 3 years of launch but actually i don't think this part is time limited. the three years mentioned is the period in which with the necessary sales the original milestone payments would be reactivated (which for the reasons already stated is not likely to happen) but there doesn't seem to be a time limit for the aggregate sales for the 15.6m euros to be achieved.what we don't know,because the 2017 runs doesn't give it is the base sales figure required totrigger the milestones.id assumed the it would be a lot higher the your figure of 25-30m euros but obviously i don't know what it is.if it is closer to your estimate then suppose it is possible they might get there in time.as we are not party to the fine detail of the agreement there may be some time limit(would be odd if there wasn't) and maybe i have missed it or misunderstood it.
whatever the true position have to agree from what you say about other prospective launch countries and time scales that it is looking extremely unlikely that we shall ever reach a level of sales such as to provide any significant s/p improvement certainly this seems to be the view of the market as we are down another4%today.only my opinion and i hope i am wrong .i intend to continue to hold as its simply not worth it for me to sell up and there may be a boost to sp
on kh/macau news.news of progress re USA trial would be welcome but as yet nothing.

yes good buying in point imo way oversold but has set foundation for further significant progress imho

prompted by alquemies reference to the clawback in his post on friday i have been having another look at the detail in the rns about revised licence agreement.im not sure i really paid much attention to it at the time but one part puzzles me.i do realise that the detail may be entirely academic if we never get near to the sales trigger points but in a spirit of optimism i have the following query.the original licence agreement provided that regent would receive up to 25m euros upon recordati achieving various net sales targets.the figures given in the 2014 licence agreement gave milestones of 5m euros for sales above100m euros going up to 25m for sales above 450m euros .now the 2017 rns states that both the relevant payments and the aggregate net sales targets have been reduced to15.6m euros! have some words /figures been omitted?surely the sales target figure cannot have been reduced to such a low figure but i cannot find anything which tells us what the new base threshold figure is i.e. what figure now apples instead of the original100m euros sales required.my point i suppose is that if the threshold has been reduced to say 62.4m euros(the pro rata reduction applied from the payment figure reduction which my not be the way they have done it but you will get the idea) then that is only(hope that is the right word) 1670000 cans approximately at 38.4 euros per can (the price according to alquemie in germny which obviously will vary fro country to country but has been used as a guide figure).bearing in mind that we are launched already in 5 countries with the rest of europe(whatever that means) russia CIS and certain north african countries in coming years that number does not seem impossible to achieve. the trigger date is 3 years after launch so time already running making it harder but perhaps not impossible.im justplayingwith figures and we have no idea what actually sales will be but perhaps the situation is not as dire as it might seem.apologies if i have got all this hopelessly wrong and happy to be corrected if so. also if anyone ha seen the actual revised target figure and can let us know it would be appreciated

well pxsmaaad i certainly hope this is the lowest point of the cycle i cannot recall it being lower than this for a very long time.the reference to "a" partner re china did provoke some discussion following the last update the hope being that it indicated some definite and positive progress but with regents record of imprecision in its language etc i don't think anyone is holding their breath but as you say only time will tell.cant really see why regent would delay start of us trial whilst looking for a us partner or trying o conclude a deal with one but its possible of course and an interesting point to raise.if its a funding issue then i supposethey might be trying to get a partner to assist with it but i think that unlikely and being deeply cynical as a result of the history here i suspect a more prosaic and less felicitous reason namely lack of funds or incompetence(or god forbid both) i recall alquemie said they appear to be trying to do the trial on a shoestring as evidenced by small patient number and only one centre.i hope i am wrong and that there is a more positive reason for the delay

agree with all you and redundancy pot have said.i personally think the extreme rampers do more harm than good. no one surely can take them seriously but their posts set a tone for the board which is off-putting.i know some say just ignore /filter but even so the effect is still there.anyway enough of that.i agree that what is needed is one or two FIRM contracts.i like others would be delighted if we could mirror the performance of VRS but reallistically that has been a phenomenal performer and i think it unlikely that lightening will strike twice for me but i do expect based on their sphere of activity to see a very positive performance from eqtec.interesting to note re the suggested need for firm contracts that this weeks rns for vrs about yet another collaboration failed to ignite the s/p which actually fell suggesting that collaborations aren't going to do it there anymore.i appreciate that vrs has already gone up massively so investors there are working from a different base and i still think that any positive news here will boost the s/p but at some point hard revenue is going to be required which is of course what the ceo has indicated we can expect

the weekends are normally the time for the more measured posts but obviously this weekend is very quiet and i think from memory so was last weekend(haven't checked so apologies if wrong) i was interested in almostdones post from friday at 20.52.i would be perfectly happy to see one or two modest orders to start things off. think a realistic s/p target in the near term is probably 1.40/1.50p assuming positive news £2.00 longer term.just an opinion no facts in support since as always we are at the mercy of news flow

I've found bigness post which mentions that we were scheduled to launch in greece and romania in september .is there any way we can check to see if anything has actually happened?

good morning pikeypete and matt.as the share price will be looking after itself i hope it has had adequate training in resucitation techniques and intensive care.

good point matt about Recordati results but not confident that we will get any sales progress updates as a result .however i hope we do and if so I'm going for 40000 units although i would hope for more.im sure bignose posted recently that there were 2/3 more european countries due to have launched by now but no update from regent so who knows

apologies dingwallgadgie i meant to say good morning to you also. Just taken aback to see another post!
seriously though we are extremely quiet and i suppose there is really very little to say at the moment surely if no news re hk/macau shortly the bod have a duty update the market if there is some problem etc.possibly not an obligation by which they feel overly burdened!

good to know we are still alive thanks

i am worried that my last post has finished the board off.i hope this is not the case.

dingwallgadgie it certainly is not beyond the realms of feasibility.i alluded to the possibility of the company being taken private in some posts 3/4 or so weeks ago in the context of possible investor action re gibson and general lack of information.i have not checked to see what level of voting share would be required to achieve this but my simple view at this point is that the major shareholders would probably be able to orchestrate it if they wished to do so.i don't think we are near that point yet and hopefully never will be but the ever decreasing s/p does make it more of a possibility.obviously it depends whether he bod and main shareholders ever feel it would be in their best interests to take it private (lip service only would be given to the interests of minority holders) so factors such as access to capital desire to avoid public scrutiny etc would come into play.i really do think the next few months are critical (yes i know we are always saying this) as if they cannot turn the decline around we shall be in serious trouble imo.as to how it would affect small shareholders imo complete disaster most probably so lets hope it never happens

two extensions this evening.thoughts anyone?

agree with the thought re support level.think its just a question now of who next news arrives

does anyone have any thoughts on todays rns fromAMP.looks similar to the one last december although details differ.the base figurer calculation for any accrual of appreciation in MTFGs s/p is now 33p as opposed to 35p and the % is now 15% as opposed to 10% but its based on a smaller no of shares.might possibly be indicative of less confidence in future s/p of mtfb but not sure my logic is correct and probably not that significant anyway.still seems overall to be playing for time for mtfb s/p to increase.would be interested in other posters views

many thanks alquemie for your further comments. always interesting to hear from someone with specialist pharma knowledge and experience of the procedures involved in this sort of situation.let us hope that regent have not underestimated the numbers required for successful validation.
incidentally when jamie gibson responded to my query regarding the non start of the trial he did say that once recruitment has completed and the trial starts regent would update the market with the results(WHICH WILL BE IN 2019) the capital letter emphasis is mine not his and i realise it would be taking things too far to treat it as the categorical assertion which it appears on the face of it to be but it is a very definite statement of intent.Bearing in mind that the trial overview states that it is due to start in august and last until october 2019(i.e. 14 months) it is difficult to see how it can be finished and the market updated in 2019 unless the trial starts by the end of this month which appears unlikely.hope this doesn't get deleted but am expecting it to be

no not holding my breath over the dbc but at least its something to have in the back of ones mind.thanks for comments re us study.i hope it is a simple non problematic reason for delay but i am worried as its going on now without explanation which is not usually a good sign .we shall see

yes sorry i have no technical knowledge of the issues raised and i expect if claims of this nature are technically possible they may not be easy to pursue in practice but again it would presumably depend on the facts and how clearly they could be established. obviously no more than speculation at the moment but another area of potential concern

on the finance section of the Today program this morning they did a slot on PV and the contributor (didnt catch who he was but he didn't sound partisan) suggested that the company may (i emphasise may not will) be open to claims from recent investors under the financial service and markets act.i think the point was that if people have invested on the basis of false information they may have claims against the company.obviously it would all depend on exactly what has been going on but is adds to my mind at least another layer of uncertainty as even if the immediate financial difficulties can be resolved and the company manages to continue trading there is i imagine going to be a cloud of uncertainty hanging over it for a long time .all in my opinion only no advice intended

i have been offline for a few days due to phone line failure but have just seen alquemies post re DBC.it would be the ultimate irony if regents fortunes were saved by the DBC but i am not holding my breath.nevertheless it is interesting and thanks to you aqluemie for posting.
the sense of impotence and disillusionment pervading the board is palpable and unfortunately completely justified.i did think about emailing the PR people after jambies response to my request for clarification re the Usa trial start but eventually decided it was a waste of time as i would just be referred back to the company.for the moment i am just going to sit back and hope for news of hong kong/Macau.