The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Todays RNS just stated go to website. On the website, under heading AGM, it only repeats the RNS. A closed loop. No details of AGM to be found, unless it's hidden'. What a shambles. I sent a message, waiting for the 'it's imminent' reply.
Atd. lol. 'they cant force the Govt to issue EISA'. You are one of the guys posting it's a 'given', so your comment leaves open 'not awarding EISA' What it can do is offer a working solution to the water problem. It appears BD have not got a clue. AS far as speaking at the 'African' event, EML was not invited by Morocco, it's just another BOD perk, holiday in the Sun, probably took families, enjoying the largesse of EML. The Moroccan newspaper article posted on here several weeks ago, intimating the EISA was 'imminent', has obviously not been read by Moroccan Authorities.
I'm still waiting for a reply to my mail of 30 May. Thnx in advance.
Dshox. sometime ago there was a significant sell off of HFR, and Reg Auth. wanted to know if there was a reason that had not been reported. LSE has same rule. HFR replied that it knew of no reason. 2 or 3 days later the co announce a share issue at a much discounted price. Of course, the share sellers were obviously aware of the upcoming issue. This is one of many ways BOD members, family and friends get rich. Difficult to prove, but obvious.
ATD. Must have took you ages to try and pick bones in my post on the above, and couldn.t find anything so you come up with spurious differences on DCF for NPV calculations. ( you will have to look that up as well). As for your ramblings about it being listed in Oz, my examples clearly showed the currency as it was reported, and then shown in GBP for clarity and comparison purposes. You are suggesting some of your fellow posters do not have sufficient intelligence to know that an Oz listed co. may report in US$ or A$. However, the cos reporting figures in OZ always state $ or A$. Simple really. There are many similarities between EML and HFR. Resource is the same ( bonus for EML it also has salt). Both are inclined drift mines. It is naive to compare sp of both cos. They have widely different shares in issue. . !B v 390Msue. The main metric is Market Cap. MC, HFR c £120M, MC, EML c £50M.
I find your comment very strange that you think EML post EISA ( If and when) will remain at 5p. I can assure you it will not. Please expand on your reasoning. The answer is not on Google, sorry.
chisler. c1 ( cash cost/tonne is universal in any mining or extraction industry, and gives a relatively easy ebitda figure.) the all inclusive cost, aic, includes all the other metrics that c1 does not. ie: tax, interest payments on loans, depreciation and amortiation., plus costs to run the business. deducting aic from revenue gives profit. to arrive at cash flow metrics, the 'non cash' items, depreciation and amortisation can be added back. the 'running costs' of a co, once reviewed from a p&l a/c, are generally similar from y 2 y.
the big difference between the 2 cos in 'the upside', 20x and 60x for hfr, eml respectively, is the large difference in ci costs. $91, $50 respect. the figure for eml was lowered since in gw62 earlier post, it was stated income from salt sales were credited to potash c1 costs. ( obviously does not affect overall profitability of mine.).. although i stated the metrics of ebitda showed eml to be a more profitable gamble ( investment), a crucial fact may tip the balance. in the illustration i provided, outputs were the same, incomes were the same, and it is highly likely total costs to ore extraction will be similar. the defining metric for sp long term is payment of divis ( this is how bod get mega rich, since many shares are given free as bonuses, or a are highly discounted.). divis are generally only paid once a significant part of the debt to construct the asset has been paid, and is often a %age of the ebitda. for example purposes, let us use 50% of ebitda distributed as divis.
eml ebitda $250m, 50% is $125m divided by no of shares, 1b, gives div per share of $0.125 or c 10p. so , for s/h with av sp of 5p, their money is returned twice every year ( less tax).
for hfr, ebitda is $209m, 50% is c$ 104m, divided by no of shares, 390m, gives a divi per share of $0.27 or 21p, current sp is a$ 0.60 or c31p, hence initial money cost if bought at 31p is returned every 8 months, and eml is every 6 months.
of course, every one of these quoted figures is subject to change. selling price of ore, capital costs, %age of ebitda when mine is fully operational, and of course, intangibles. but on the metrics given, eml again comes out in front.
last night at 10pm brasil time, i took out a position in hfr at 32.5p. premium price for an overseas stock with swiss broker, and a dealing charge of £50. on the face of it, hfr is all set to construct, starting eoy, however, as we all know, bureaucracy can grind to a halt 'the best laid plans of mice and men'. obviously a problem 250 yrs ago.
this is not investment advice, it is playing with numbers , for comparison purposes on the back of a *** packet. seriously. dyor.
KR stated the problem is supply of the feedstock. Caramba, Holy Ghost, is he from this planet,? has he not been reading the news about the millions of tonnes of non recyclable plastic going to the sea, land fills, being incinerated. ? Total BS. There are are literally 100's of refuse collectors, public, and private, many with sorting facilities. It is BS to probably hide the technical problems. A Red Herring.
Posters stating the 'common sense' phrase ' prospective customers need to see a DMG working' before a commitment, should have been asking BOD several years ago , following the collaboration with Peel, 'you are putting the building of FOAK in the hands of a 3rd party. Are you effing crazy'. Answer, yes they were, and still are.
Chisler;
The sp is basically immaterial in this context, the MC is the Numero Uno. HFR MC is c £120, EML is currently £50M, so on a 'one size fits' all basis EML's MC after EISA should be 120/50 x sp or c 2.5 x. So 4.8 x 2.5 = 12p. A more realistc basis to judge the MC of both cos is to look at possible EBITDA on full operational output tonnages.
If we use $300 pt as a guide figure, and outputs at both mines is 1M t pa.
HFR Cash cost pt is $91pt, Sale value is $300pt., so contribution to profit is 300 - 91 = 209. x 1M = $209M contribution. This is effectively EBITDA ( Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortisation costs.) If we consider an 'average Price/ Earnings ratio (P/E) of 15;1, the MC of HFR would be 15 x 209 = $3.14B. Divided by no of shares in issue 390M gives sp of $8.00, or c 12 $A. ( £6.40)HFR is up 10% today and trading at 0.619 $a. So upside is 20X.
Similarly for EML using C1 of $50 pt ( GW62 figure), MC would be 250 x 1M = 250M x 15 = 3.75$B, divide by No of shares, approx 1B, gives sp of $3.75 or £3,00 ( ExR = 1.25 $;£) so upside for EML is 60X.
Reason for high discrepancy in return on investment from now, 60X cf 20X is the high difference in current sp of both cos. EML 5p HFR 0.6A$ = c 31p.
It should also be noted EML gas !B shares in Issue, HFR has 390M.
For investment purposes EML appears to be the better gamble, but HFR has all the approvals to construct a working mine. EML, and this is Breaking News, does not. To quantify the risk assessment between EML and HFR , it's 60/20 =3.
Mjallen. You are wrong on so many counts. First, The US stock market crash was in 2008, Madoffs Ponzi scheme was discovered in 2008, and he was arrested. He collapsed because the stock market crashed. And he was 'lorded'. laughable.
So he was buying lots of shares, not really, some as a front, but when those shares he did buy, tanked in the crash, he knew the game was up, and even then , he was still trying to get cash from friends saying 'it was a good time to buy'. He put the new money he received into a bank a/c, not all of it, to pay divis and cash for investors who wanted out. the rest he used for personal use. Fraud. The film is not about 'every share sale has to have a buyer', which was your fake news.
Brokers can offer a settlement date of 1 day, 3 days, 20 days, at which time the money is taken from your a/c and the shares added to your a/c. With electronic dealing, the shares will not be added to your a/c until your payment is in their a/c. If the payment is transferred immediately, the shares are transferred immediately. Maybe your Broker has different rules. Try a better one. and stop name calling like a recalcitrant child, and accept that you do not know what you are talking about. And you think all films are based on absolute facts. oh dear. I get my 'facts' from reliable sources, not from Film Directors. Educate yourself and try reading books.
KTF. Assistant to Parsons Poodle in exonerating The Failure for all his misdeeds. ( had to use PP since I was reminded of it).. For a start KTF ( a misnomer if ever there was one), You have no idea what posters here invested in SOU, and if it was within their means or not. We all know with your 'cheeky top ups' how much you lost. I think the example you gave for your 'low' average now was something like 500 shares at 30p, 400 shares at 60p, and 1 million at 1p, lo and behold a low average. , Those are Trump statistics, to fool fools. As far as the living in the past goes, it is a wise man that knows where he has been, it may provide a guide for the future.
Save me looking, does anyone know ( if it's been reported) , C 1 cost for Potash at Khemisett mine.?
BTS. Indeed, and the Muga mine situated in the heart of Eu. At A$ 0.56 ps ( c30p), gives a MC of c £120M. With the mining license now issued, construction work on site expected end of this year. However, like the Brits, the Spanish can be v optimistic. With initial output of 1/2 m tpy, growing to 1M tpy, like EML the metrics are excellent. It certainly appears that HFR will be mining Potash well before EML, but since their mine is close to major agricultural centres, should not impinge on EML's forecast markets.
FJ. It is always wise to remember the Raison D'etre for any BOD member, especially the CEO, and especially in AIM cos.
It is to secure the financial wellbeing of themselves and families. If the company succeeds it is an added bonus. Many cos that should have been assigned to Bankruptcy Court, have been allowed to hang on by BOD only for the benefits of salary, feeding off co largesse, and mostly Pension payments. Some RNS are clearly 'polishing a t**d.
Mjallen. As you say there is a 'warehouse' of shares from which shares are 'sold and bought'. When the warehouse is empty, it is not possible to buy shares, because non are available, and the price will soar to tempt s/h to sell. The opposite is also true. The market does not record events that do not take place, such as 'every sale has a buy' it is fake news, Your comment about Maddoff is laughable. He operated a Ponzi Scheme. This is a scheme, since you obviously do not understand it, is when an 'Investment financier' offered his clients very attractive rates of return. His client base grew on the basis of referrals from existing clients who had received impressive RoR. He was only paying these 'impressive rates' from the funds received from new clients. ie. a Ponzi Scheme. Nothing to do with share trading or share warehouses. Please desist from posting nonsense.
'the so called failure' is only a failure by comparison to the metric of our current success,'
Current success. hmmm. I dare to suggest you meant 'current plans'.
The 'plan' is to extract current known reserves, convert to LNG and sell i. .followed up by a drilling programme to increase the asset base.It took an engineer to think that out This is a 'plan' that never crossed the mind of a failed bean counter. He and his cohort Brian ( a failure at BG), were so engrossed on wildcat drilling to prove The Failures 30Tct in situ. He did not, and does not, have the intelligence to monetise the asset discovered. monetisation of assets has been the MO of A/cs for decades., it obviously went over the head of one retrogressed Simian.
Suggestion westie when you chat with BOD next time, possibly put on agenda for AGM.
One of the BOD visits mid States USA, parles with Chiefs of Arapaho, Pawnee, Cheyenne, Apache, Comanche tribes, and organises a working visit to Morocco for at least 20 member of each tribe, who will perform a 'Rain Dance' in Country, on a daily basis for a month. The ensuing deluge should sustain The Kingdom in water for years to come. Water problem solved. Get to it old bean.
Mjallen. Yr post earlier.
'So not sure what your point is. For every sell there has to be a buyer. That sort of volume could be a market maker or an institution.'
If every sale has a buyer, why is there a difference, sometimes huge, in the numbers of buy/sells on a daily basis.?
With the lack of news (of any type) from BOD, assumptions is all we have to post. I am surprised no Herd member has not mentioned EISA news held back to be unveiled at AGM, thus eradicating 95% of questions from floor to the stage, and guaranteeing a standing ovation for BOD. Please don't assume that the BOD has to release 'important' news ASAP. A week or so delay, as long as no leak is announced, can easily be defended, ( obtaining confirmation, ensuring translation is correct, clarification of key paragraphs, etc, etc). It appears nothing happened at the UK Govts initative in The Kingdom to 'help things along', or, for that matter, the much acclaimed Newspaper article saying the award was imminent. Possibly the Authorities didn't read the article,
I am always amused by most of the herds comment that the award of the EISA is a 'given'. Really. So all of you have mortgaged your collateral to the hilt and bought. Guaranteed not. Of course, the Company should be starting to construct all the infrastructure required to build the mine. I believe the EISA permit is to actually mine the resources. Water requirements to construct infrastructure would be negligible, ( Herd members scratching heads to contradict me.)
The financiers would be happy to loan funds, since EISA is a 'given'. However, I'll go out on a limb, and suggest Financiers would like to see something in writing.
The Govt can easily not award permit. It is their Country. As for the Court of Arbitration. I have yet to see a good outcome for the prosecution. In rare examples of a monetary award being made ( I do not know of any reversals of decisions by a Govt) the award might only cover direct local expenditure, and would certainly not include an amount for future potential. The arbitration would be a year or more at minimum, and in that time, heavy rainfall would be a blessing for EML, since that would be a valid reason to award a n other party an EISA without embarrassment. It would be advisable for EMLL to have a clause stipulating, in the caee of arbitration that it would get first refusal on a mine at Khemmiset (?) in the case of relaxation on water for any reason.
Assumptions, assumptions.
Joe945. 'Nox was never really a problem.' Not true Joe. Oxides of N2 are highly poisonous and cause severe respiratory tract infections. NOX is 300 x more damaging than COX in GW. NOX depletes the ozone layer. I stand by my comment that the future of H2 in transportation should be HFC.
Fusion Energy is a way that theoretical scientists while their time away building 'toys' at the expense of taxpayers.
To date, a reactor has, I believe, achieved fusion for microseconds. It's a very long way to a second, and probably a lifetime to a minute. Hours are multi generations.