Autonomy Reality19 Feb 2019 14:23
How far away is the driverless future?
Autonomy is beginning to creep into many vehicles. Whether it’s adaptive cruise control or lane-keep assist, even humble family cars can now handle some basic driving tasks without the oversight of a driver. The question is, how far away are Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) level 5 driverless cars – those that might not even include controls that a human could use?
Despite the chorus of autonomous vehicle (AV) companies promising that fully driverless cars are just on the horizon, QUBE’s AV forecast suggests we might be waiting a little longer to ditch the steering wheel. By 2028, we expect level 5 driverless cars to make up just 0.59% of all vehicles sold – that’s fewer than 700,000 vehicles from a total of more than 90 million.
In fact, moving five years on to 2033 only increases the worldwide penetration of level 5 driverless vehicles to 3.28%. China – the world’s largest car market – is ahead of all other major regions in 2033, but that still only equates to 5.25% of its market made up of level 5 driverless vehicles.