RE: REDEYE Report on Smart eye3 May 2022 20:37
T2022 – EU preparation for Euro NCAP, and both soft and hard requirements in USA
In 2022, Europe won’t be impacted by any hard requirements on DMS. EU General Safety Regulation (EU GSR)
imposes DMS requirement for vehicles with Level 2 automation (“L2 vehicles”) in July – to get a “EU type approval”.
We don’t think this will do much for DMS penetration as it is not mandatory. However, we think OEMs will start
preparing for the requirements from Euro NCAP that come into place next year. Though, we don’t this preparation
phase will be a major trigger in Europe.
For USA, there are two “soft” requirements that come into place – from IIHS and Consumer Reports. IIHS, the
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, will impose requirements of DMS on new models of L2 vehicles – to get a
“good” safety rating. Also, Consumer Reports will give extra rating points for new models of L2 cars with DMS.
Considering that 30-40% of new car models in the US have L2 automation, and that 75% of these are likely to aim
for these ratings, we think 9% of newly sold cars could have DMS. We are still unsure about the exact date of
implementation of these.
2023 – DMS “mandatory” to receive five-star safety rating in EU
In 2023, DMS will practically be a requirement on the European market for cars launched in 2023. That is, if the
OEMs aim to get a five-star safety rating. We estimate that one of seven cars sold are new models, and that one
seventh are upgraded models of previous versions. Thus, around 28% of new cars sold will be affected. A fair
estimate is that 75% of these will aim for a five-star safety rating. Thus, we estimate at around 20% of new cars sold
in the EU will have DMS.
For the USA, there are no new requirements that come into place. However, the requirements from 2022 will then
affect models from both 2022 and 2023, thus potentially doubling the share of cars with DMS. We estimate that
13% of new cars sold in the US will include DMS in 2023.
2024 – DMS Lite for all new vehicles in the EU + increased “soft” push in the USA
In July 2024, EU GSR imposes DMS requirement for L2 vehicles – for ALL new models. This will be another major
milestone for DMS penetration on the European market. We estimate that this will bring up EU penetration to 35%.
For the US market, there is an extension of the requirement from Consumer Reports, which implies that L2 cars
without DMS will get minus points in the rating. We estimate 18% of new cars in the US will include DMS in 2024.
2025 – Moving Forward Act in the USA – unsure but positive
In 2025, we believe the NHTSA in the USA will impose the “Moving Forward Act”, which will demand DMS. However,
much is still unsure about this we are not certain of the details. In any way, this will further strengthen penetration in
the USA. We estimate that 35% of new cars sold in the US will include DMS in 2025.
2026 – EU getting ready for Euro NCAP, while USA imposes ”soft” requirements
In 2026, all new cars so
Sign In
Follow the stocks
