Colin Linkedin9 May 2022 17:52
Below are the latest estimates of the production status for each of Smart Eye's 14 declared #OEM wins for #DMS. As always, there is a wide degree of estimation in this work and some specific conclusions are apt to turn out wrong.
Based on developments and announcements across the industry, Audi, Porsche, JLR and Geely are still assumed to be cancelled projects. Renault is working with Qualcomm on the digital chassis and it is reasonable to assume that project is cancelled too.
BMW has publicly declared a partnership with Qualcomm/Arriver, and the assumption is it is now working with Seeing Machines for DMS, both for automated driving and #infotainment. The Smart Eye DMS contract (estimate MSEK 315) must be assumed to be at end of life already.
The five OEMs in production are therefore judged to be: BMW (at end of life), Hyundai (Genesis), Mitsubishi, SAIC and GM.
The status of Nissan is unknown, so too Chinese OEM 3.
The two German OEMs that were announced as part of the March 2020 "grand-slam" have never been obviously identifiable. It seemed reasonable to assume they were somehow associated with a partnership with Cerence, but VW (Audi, Porsche) and BMW are moving to Qualcomm. The obvious conclusion is still one of the two is Mercedes, but Smart Eye never provided any further details.
Of the MSEK 2375 revenue that has been declared, MSEK 660 might be cancelled; MSEK 315 looks to be at end of life (BMW); about MSEK 850 is contracts that have achieved SoP (start of production); MSEK 300 remains future booked business (SoP 2022-2024); and the remaining MSEK 250 is unknown.
The short-term pessimism looks to be overdone. Smart Eye remains one of two companies to achieve DMS SoP with BMW (a significant accomplishment). Most likely its short-term challenges are the result of one or more major investors losing patience (or confidence) and exiting their position. In automotive, everything takes forever, and then a little longer.
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