Member Info for terrace

Sain....you are a worrier....Remember a couple of years back when one particular poster, who shall remain nameless,heavily criticised TEF for significant forward selling because they would miss out on HPI.All the indications are that HPI in London will be benign for a few years and that causes hesitation in the minds of buyers.The demand has not gone away but buyers think that they might be unwise to commit right now with all the background noise.People seem to prefer to commit to home purchase when the probability is that its value will be higher next year than it is now and if the media suggests otherwise,they will wait.So TEF concentration on the IPRS or BTR sector is perhaps the sensible path for our cautious forward seeing BODS.You are old enough to have seen all this before several times and long term,domestic residential property has always been a very sound investment.A few years of inflation matching HPI in London will stabilise the market and set it up for the next leg of its exuberant journey.Whatever,our BODS have the uncanny ability to stay one step of events,they are hungry,capable,experienced,enthusiastic and honest,what more can you ask.At the moment,we are being asked to pay a very small price,in terms of SP,for the exciting future that awaits us over the next couple of decades.Its about being a part of that and having the mindset to be patient.

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/telford-homes-TEF/share-chat

Nobody,but nobody,can consistently second guess forward SP movements accurately.All you can do is understand that the SP is about a pound below EV at the moment and represents good value.This is a long term get very rich slowly situation rather than a get rich quick opportunity,so it is not worth worrying too much over the price at which you trade as long as you have a 5 to 10 year horizon.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/number-homes-market-falls-new-low-housing-market-stifled-uncertainty/

James,our unique business is not one where you can engineer a steady regular even flow of legal completions spread out over a full year.It doesn't really matter does it as long as the expected returns materialise.Perhaps the AGM statement is weighted to IPRS rather than private sales because this is where the BODS consider the companys attention should be focused until Brexit issues are finalised.The benefits of IPRS are mainly cash flow and certainty albeit at a lower margin and a ( 50/50) mix is probably the most sensible approach,but you do wonder if it signals a more cautious view of the recently rampant private sales scene.TEF AGMs tend to be fairly bland and once the regulatory agenda is dealt with,nothing magic is revealed or hinted at in the open Q&A session.Maybe six month comparisons of results each year are not really helpful for home builders especially those for apartment builders rather than house builders because of the longer construction periods.Would be far more interested to read the internal management accounts based on operational progress rather than published accounts based on forever changing accounting rules.

what do you think about what was ( and wasn't) said?.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BDEV&ArticleCode=z2irhct5&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Statement

https://vimeo.com/224786764

Steph....the inflation adjusted return on cash right now is zero at best,so not really an option unless you think the stock markets are well overvalued.Housing shares are at least a third underpriced compared with the average overall market P/Es,but that is a massive bonus for those having investment funds available.You can go back about 100 years and see that whatever life throws at home builders,they come out the other side fitter and stronger.It is simple really,demand is and will continue to exceed supply,but the investment community does not like simple.They seem to prefer to be guided by attention seeking media reports,graphs,charts the tabloid press and ersatz gurus.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/826534/Barratt-Developments-profits-demand-trading-update

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=GFRD&ArticleCode=txibl1s8&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Statement

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/10/london-climbs-two-places-become-worlds-third-best-city-conduct/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bymH69o1PME

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/06/one-three-homes-planning-permission-arent-built/

Price is what you pay,value is what you get.Price ( the SP ) is just the aggregate at the time,of market participants opinion of what the business is worth.Value is what the business is worth as a commercial entity based on earniings (amongst other things)now and projected in the future and at the moment there is a gap of about a pound between price and value.Earnings are guided to grow substantially in the next few years as you know,so it will be increasingly difficult for the market to continue with its low opinion of the company.If TEF was an unquoted business and you did not have to suffer the pessimistic view of other participants,you would be congratulating yourself on your involvement here.Judge the wisdom of your holding on the basis of results rather than the short term opinion of others,because eventually the market will value the business appropriately.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MCS&ArticleCode=wceujbvh&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Update

http://news.sky.com/story/bovis-to-spend-35m-more-on-home-improvements-after-build-quality-row-10938607

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BVS&ArticleCode=axbdqsk2&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Update

PB are now offering home owners in three continents the opportunity to list their properties for sale and IF a sale results,the fees savings over using a conventional agent are substantial and that has to be a good thing.The SP however is about 15 times book value which is absolutely nuts,a very great deal is now factored into the share price and achieving that is no done deal.

sorry,profits after tax of £75m,not £15m.