Member Info for Tegop

They are literally employees of the shareholder. They are legally required to prioritize the shareholders. Except in the case of a bankruptcy.

I don't think the violinist took lifeboats.

Hop along. We've got space.

There had been 6 sealed unnamed documents since CINE asked to put binding offers under NDA.

There are still plenty of possibilities.

Every RNS is pre drafted by lawyers to prevent such eventuality. They even have paragraph upon paragraph of disclaimers on the bottom of each RNS.

Still better than a wholesale liquidation.

Debenhams liquidated in three days after negotiations failed spectacularly.

SVB got liquidated over a weekend.
Cine is following the trajectory of a slow C11 churn.

@wolf, you are assuming CINE will keep losing money even on the summer. Despite the cost cutting and lease renegotiations/closure.. Anything is possible. My pipe is all cleaned.

He already said he lost money to debenhams. He must feel the overwhelming urge to save people from themselves.

C7 liquidation did not happen and the longer it takes, the lower the chances we get zero.

Aeromexico was diluted 99.99 %. Latam was diluted 99.9%. we are looking to dilute 98% to triple the current market cap. Anything more is gift.

Short it if you think this will hit zero, hop on if you think otherwise. Spare the messiah complex.

Really depends on how strong the Bod presents the value of current equity. We have no idea what the Plan is, if this was equivalent to 100% dilution, mooky would have gone for c7 liquidation and gone fishing. He must have something else in mind.

Estimated revenue for 2023 is ~4b. And return to pre pandemic level for next year.

There are tons of possibilities and amalgamations. For example, a 363 sale of ROW or other assets then refinance the rest. Or DIP obligation refinance where every penny of profit is locked into repayment. Convertable notes where we get diluted but only if the lender converts.

Lastly, RSAs inherently will have exit clauses where the debtor can exit if the Plan no longer suits them (if there was no change of ownership)

Lmuhare is still here. Lurking. Menacingly.

So... Anyone here done a DCF model valuation for CINE yet?

Feel free to post here.

They dont. Those are the self reported values in the financial section on the january report. This even include 4B goodwill from the regal purchase. This is consistent with how cine presents itself in the earnings.

I am sure the lenders will value it lower.

I will have to correct myself as I am missing a digit.

0.1% (dilution)of 10B will be 10Million
0.01% is 1 Million.

We wil need 99% (1%) dilution to make 100M

If the adhoc lenders value the existing assets at 10B, (currently at 15B in the january financial excluding ROW)

And then diluted us at 99.9%, that would put a market cap of 100M. 3x the current price.

If they dilute 99.99%, we are 10M. 1/3rd the current price.

If you read the link i posted, latam airlines and aeromexico went through similar C11 proceedings in the US post covid. Latam was diluted 99.9% (their pre emergence shares were 0.1% of the newco.)

Aeromexico was diluted worse at 99.99%. both were diluted and then the new owners(ad hoc lenders) bought out the PIs and they both delisted.

https://globalrestructuringreview.com/review/restructuring-review-of-the-americas/2023/article/recent-developments-in-dip-financing-international-and-domestic-debtors#footnote-023

For anyone interested in recent D4E transactions on post covid bankruptcies.

That was a trick question! The scale is inverted.

I would say 7-8 out of 10. 10 being a 100% Wipeout.

I'm at 2 or 3 out of 10 but I have held so long and lost so much I have come to terms with it.

Anything more than a wipeout is a win for me. The rest of my investments are now being diversified.

January 2023 $584,765,684 +50% (89) $6,570,400

Vs

January 2019 $812,849,718 -15.2% (161) $5,048,756

The number or releases are in brackets. They are public info, same as the revenue of the movies. BO Mojo will have them.

There is 50% fewer releases last year than pre covid.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_ml_secondarytab

We are on tract for 30-40% lower release number.

I wonder why cine refused to pay them as part of ordinary course. They decided to turn their back on NCMI despite being 23% owner of the company.