Member Info for tedmak

the what?

when you strip it down, the business consisists of

Gas and electricity supply - low margin but huge scale.
LNG contract with Cheniere - export from US to ROW. Was hedged out for 2021 so no great positive impact but could make a few quid in early 2022.
Spirit Energy - O&G business up for sale. Wont be a great number of buyers but will be barrelling in cash in 2021 until the end of March 2022.

All in all - broadly positive. They will be losing money on the capped customers but that is a timing issue as those costs will be recovered from the whole GB customer basis.

The red flag I have is the nuclear business. This is run by EDF and has been performing operationally terribly this year (one of the problems the UK grid has). The volumes that Centrica will have been expecting (they get 20% of the output) will have to be bought from the market at prevailing prices. (As a separate point - EFT have a similar problem with its French reactors).

The Drax update two days ago was very interesting. They had an unplanned outage at one of their units in September. They were able to mitigate it via their pumped storage business - effectively replacing the volume in-house). Centrica has no such mitigating volume. In a lot of ways the retail business is a red herring. The nuclear business could be a bit of a surprise at the next update and not in a good way. Unless this is cleared up - a matter of weeks - can't see why we should get excited.

Nice action today. If you add back the dividend we are at YTD highs.
A share with inflation proofing in its price controls is very nice to have at this point.

I watched the strategy update.
Must say it pulled together a coherent narrative for biomass and carbon capture strategy.
Looking at the numbers for the current business, I make it that EBITDA will be £500M higher for 2022 than it is for 2021. (Using current forward curves)
I assume they are being low key about that for political reasons.

Nice bit of upside for 2022 and 2023 hedged prices.
Was expecting more of an uplift for 2021 but it seems that unplanned outages led to a hit. Good that the flex from the pumped storage (Cruachan) was able to mitigate this. Was/is still a big concern of mine but they always leave some capacity unhedged for such a scenario.
It also means that if they have good availability, which it looks like they have now, they can make hay when prices surge, which they are set to do the remainder of winter.

will await to hear more on the future carbon capture plans.

Isnt the natural buyer for this equity RDSB?
IT is going into a RDSB LNG facility and RDSB know more about it than any buyer.
I know they are trying to rationalise but there is no point throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Or is Prelude not worth doing? And if so, why bother with the FID?

A good thing is that the work on the interconnectors has finished.
Means dont have to worry about commodity price inflation.
Also, the revenues for the networks have inflation protection in them.
Is a great share to have in these times.

Catiche
have a look at this:

https://www.ssethermal.com/flexible-generation/

https://www.sserenewables.com/our-sites/

A good pointer Aro03. Can't have helped matters today by any means.

The good thing is we are replacing the institutions that don't have an interest due to ESG with parties that have a belief in coal going forward.

Would like more regular updates from investor relations but, in reality, the rail issue was updated by the company two weeks ago. Is a hairy one to hold, mind.

Well - apologies for being a pedant, but Canute put his finger in the dyke to DEMONSTRATE that he could NOT hold back the tide.

Anyway, China CAN get the price of coal down, IF it is prepared to have power cuts and factory closures and thence not take in any imports.
Something tells me that they wont, if only for the sake of social cohesion.
Can get very cold in a Chinese winter and I wouldnt want to walk up the stairs of those tower blocks when the lifts have been shut off.
The last couple of weeks have been a successful way of shaking the money from the coal price tree, but hasnt changed the underlying supply demand dynamic.
Now if they are prepared to kill loads of miners to get the output up,......

Can someone explain to me why this is bullish for ABRDN, please?

Below is the reply I got from Parkmead when I emailed asking when the results are out.
I received the reply this afternoon.

Thank you for your enquiry and for your ongoing interest in Parkmead.

Our next scheduled update will be towards the end of November, reporting the Group’s Preliminary Results for the year ending 30 June 2021.

Parkmead’s annual report will be published shortly after this preliminary results date, which will provide further detail on the Group’s progress and activities.

Kind Regards,

https://www.ft.com/content/30415edc-1643-4334-a381-96ede6d88e2c

Its free today.

Do you not feel the big picture is being missed.
Fertiliser is needed to feed a growing world population and the carbon footprint for POLY4 is significantly better than fertiliser which needs significant apounts of ammonia (and hence methane).
I think they just wanted to get hold of the asset and then develop it using their capex and project management techniques.
6/12 months delay here or there is minor, in the scheme of themes.

OR put it another way, where else could they have got that opportunity?

Wow - my blocked message percentage has gone down from 32% to 4%.
Of the two members mentioned, I block one and not the other. I can't see the unblocked one making a comment here now.
Hmmmmm

Neversellshell,
Quite simple. The people who want the push for renewables can provide the capital.
It is a strange message to push. ‘We need to run down the high ROE activity to finance the lower ROE activity’.
Is like a movie sequel with the promo ‘ you loved the first one, please put up with 90 minutes of a turgid sequel where you might like the finale’. I wouldn’t exactly rush to the Odeon on that basis.

Do they actually WANT the share price to go up?

I don't think 'delusion' is fair to most posters.
I do think that there is a lack of awareness of the situation majors are in with regard to market perception.
The CEOs of Shell and BP act ashamed of their legacy business, which is where the BIG MONEY actually is.
IF they can't bang the drum for the company - all parts of the company - why should the rest of the market buy into them?
Amazon are not ashamed of their business, but they use Shell and BP's products to deliver products to the customer SAME DAY.

OK, ESG and the like are headwinds the shares face, but until the company is proudly extolling all parts of the business, there is a problem.
Chevron are not hiding their light under a bushell. Glencore, in the mining space, the same thing.

The Loeb letter is onto something. Split the company and the CEOs of both sides of the business can sing from the rooftops.
Without that, the share price will just float about quarter to quarter.

Is there any information out there concerning what their mandate is?
The transaction activity on Thungela has no rhyme or reason.
Doesn't concern me as the fundamentals have not changed, but as soon as I saw the share price performance today, I guessed something had come out.
Also - why this stuff is released during the day instead of out of market hours.
It would be for the best if they just sold the whole holding, then we would just have the strong hands
Ah, well.

ps - As usual on a day like this, 32% (THIRTY TWO) of the comments on here are blanked out.
I only blank 4 users. That is some doing.

Hi, Gubby
If you look at the prospectus land interims, there is a provision for the green fund in the accounts but the amount in escrow was short by about 3000M.
The cash on the balance sheet was a separate item.
In effect, the provision is a note that says the money needs to be paid in the future.
Adding the amount in escrow to the cash balance matches the provision.
The company is under bo obligation to add the 3000M rand to the escrow, just to pay the 5% per year.
Like having a mortgage but with a cash balance in another account equal to that number.
It is possible the company will want to keep that cash balance their to take away the uncertainty of the provisions being funded.
Let’s face it, uncertainty on how provisions are going to be paid don’t help confidence in any company.

As an aside, the amount of money the company has made in the last few months has enabled a lot of the uncertainty on paying for cleanup AND the mine life extensions away.

A far cry from the situation when the company was demerged.

Looking at things, I don’t think the company had any choice than to issue the update when it did.
Two days later the Kumba Iron production update came out. They made a comment on Transnet and made an update on their stock position.
If they had waited until Kumba had updated, there would have been wild speculation on the read-through to Thungela (just imagine the frenzy on these pages).
In a way it is good that Kumba will be pressuring the government and Transnet as well as Thungela to get this sorted.