Member Info for tedmak

I have done a few quick calculations.
Following assumptions are based upon 65USD cash cost (conservative), 15MT deliveries in 2021 and 2022, a discount to API of 20% (it was less than 20% at the interim results stage when prices were lower), and a second half 2021 API4 price of 178 USD, using price to date and the forward curve for he rest of the year. API4 for 2022 is 120USD.
I have applied 7.5MT to sales for second half of 2021.
(All we can go on is the forward curve - anything else is speculation or religion, and am not interested in that).
The end of June 2021 cash position was 3000M rand but this just covers the cleanup liability so I effectively put net cash at end June 2021 at zero.
(This is not meant as a negative because it means we can forget the cleanup issues.)

I make the H2 2021 new profit 371M USD or 197p per share.
I make the 2022 net profit 297M USD or 158p per share.

Taking that together, we get 355p per share.
So on top of that we get the future value of the business going forward, the potential liquidation of the end 2021 stock pile (13p per share using the 2022 forward price and 1.3MT).
So at current prices, we get the post 2022 business for free.

IMHO, there is at least 15 years of coal business to be done (India and China are not going anywhere, unless I am totally mistaken).
Ad this is all based on the current forward curve, which I am bullish on anyway as the northern hemisphere winter risk won’t disappear until late Jan at the earliest. The verbal intervention of China has just led to exchange spec positions being closed. It hasn’t changed the actual position on the ground. When the rolling blackouts end, then China and India (which gets forgotten) can be more relaxed.

On the rail situation, it will be resolved (no idea when) as it is in everyone’s interest to get the product sold. The government gets royalties and corporation tax and Transnet gets transit fees.

Am happy for my numbers to be interrogated/critiqued, but please, no ramblings or unsubstantiated/unsourced ‘news’.

Plainly the RNS is disappointing but not drastically so.
Just tapping away at some numbers, the 1.3MT stock level at end of year will be $200M tied up (assuming 80% discount and using the Q1 22 API4 price).
A nice cash infusion into 2022 if Transnet can get their issues sorted).

Was good that they announced this. Best to keep us in the loop and stops daft speculation.

On the final note, I only block 4 users but there are an awful lot of green lines on where where I can’t see a users ‘contribution’.
Ah well

A bounce back from the daft fall the other day.
Who cares what Blackstone do when the UK power system in on a tightrope!!!
Look at spot lower prices and the forward curve.
Anyone want to sell that? PLEASE!!!

Have a look at nordpoolgroup.com

Scroll down to ‘Price development’ and click on the button for UK Day ahead prices.
We have had belting prices this week and the price for Friday…

This is all in October before the clock change when demand ratchets up further for lighting and heating.
They will be making enough at these prices to run the ‘spare’ unit that is not CFD or ROC. (I put the biomass cost at £60/MWh).
Their only constraint is sourcing enough biomass (great for Pinnacle either way).
On top of this is they have pumped storage.

My only concern this winter is if they have outages, other than that, nothing but live for this one.

Further information. Word is that Drax and Engel have been dropped from the Blackrock iShares Clean Energy ETF.
Blackrock have declined to comment.
Ah well, the volume can be picked up by others in the market.
We aren’t going to keep the lights on this winter with good intentions alone.

That article is the only thing I can see.
I think it is daft as the CFD and ROC arrangements are set.
Would be very bad form to make such a change in policy especially as UK needs new investment in the transition.
It wouldn’t help.
I just think it is nervousness with the big moves we have had.

That is gross.
Assuming they have 15% of the dutch fields, I make it they are producing 1441MWh per day net to Parkmead.

Would already be above £5 if the economic worries were not hitting the wider market.
The market needs to get its head around the idea, the rest of the economy will lose and the energy sector IS winning. A pity for the people who have to hug an index, but we are not them.

Happy days!!!.

https://twitter.com/yanqinyq/status/1443152968187056134?s=21

Missed adding the link

‘Orderly’ INCREASE of coal imports.

Good luck with that when the power station stocks are so low’

RIF
I make you right on a lot of your points and it is quite pertinent the stagflation point.
We are heading for a recession, if not already in one.
That is a good argument to get out of discretionary consumer companies as the customer won’t have the cash to buy them or they won’t be able to produce sufficient volumes as their production in China has been curtailed.
In the meantime, the resource part of the global economy will do very well.

I reckon a lot of bank desks will be fearful of putting out research on how profictable the resource sector will be for the next few years at they will have to mark down the other sectors.

In summary, hold onto TGA for dear life.

You have missed off the royalty on the sales price and corporation tax on the profits. There are posts earlier on that.

But also note

https://twitter.com/energy_blogger/status/1441490084566421509?s=21

Good luck to any sellers

GL
Can you show your working, please?
Happy to sensecheck.
Thanks

Too high is in the eye of the beholder.
Windfall tax by who? The SA government gets a royalty on the coal price and they get corporation tax.
They are quite happy with how things are going.
If the consumers have a problem, they can always get their coal elsewhere.

I think the Barclays research price is very achievable.
This winter will prove the Drax concept. They have built a zero carbon business (Drax PS)with the added benefit of pumped storage. The system is crying out for flexibility.
So the business is bringing in cash this winter and the value going forward if demonstrated.
Pinnacle looks like a fantastic acquisition. There is self supply for all 4 units this winter and, even if the non CFD unit is less utilised next summer, the biomass can be sold onto a third party.
And that is even before Carbon Capture.
Tbh - I don’t factor that into my analysis. Is a bonus.

Maybe Drax were looking with the timing of their purchases - but who cares?!?

API4 Cal 22 traded this morning at $135.
Compare that to the price on the day of distribution to shareholders of $92.

I can see a bumber first dividend. Why keep 70% of free cash flows. The capital support agreement with Anglo American is not relevant now. The stabilisers are no longer needed on the bije.

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1711572880216755244&wfr=spider&for=pc

The idea that Chinese demand is abating anytime soon is not one I subscribe to. They have bugger all stocks at the power stations.

Click on this link then use translate but I will extract part of it:

Source: China Business News

Original title: Guangdong initiates a new round of power rationing, and high-energy-consuming enterprises in some areas rationing power for a week

"The power limit has been longer, and we don't know what to do now."

"The power rationing period has increased, and we don't know what to do now." Wu Deguang, a manufacturing owner in Dongguan, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News today.

On September 22, Wu Deguang received a text message from the Houjie Power Supply Branch of the Dongguan Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid. In principle, in accordance with the requirements of the Municipal Development and Reform Bureau's "Notice on the Implementation of Staggered Power Consumption for Enterprises with High Energy Consumption", please stop using electricity for industrial production loads at all times every day from September 22-26, 2021."

I wouldn’t use the term in your title, GL.
But I will say this, if you want to get in decent volume, it is only really on a down day.
And if you want to sell decent volume, it needs to be on an up day.
I made my last buy on Monday and some buys on Friday. The one on Friday was decent size but I had to split it into 4 lots as when I tried to buy in my preferred size, the achievable price went up.
And that was on a down day.
There are not enough market makers in the stock - YET.
Now if the market cap gets up to £1B, would think that would change. But there doesn’t HAVE to be lots of MMs in this stock as there is not the required flow each day from indices.
Ah well - am in this this for a few more pounds anyway.

The Thungela stock we demerged on 7th June. If you were a shareholder of AAL on or around 4th June, you should have been allocated shares.
If you were not - is not relevant.
There is a Thungela page on this website.
Best to keep this board discussion to AAL.

I only filter 4 posters.
I have looked at another couple of pages from different stocks and I seem to be seeing the green ‘filtered’ message all over the place.