We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Have a look at nordpoolgroup.com
Scroll down to ‘Price development’ and click on the button for UK Day ahead prices.
We have had belting prices this week and the price for Friday…
This is all in October before the clock change when demand ratchets up further for lighting and heating.
They will be making enough at these prices to run the ‘spare’ unit that is not CFD or ROC. (I put the biomass cost at £60/MWh).
Their only constraint is sourcing enough biomass (great for Pinnacle either way).
On top of this is they have pumped storage.
My only concern this winter is if they have outages, other than that, nothing but live for this one.
Further information. Word is that Drax and Engel have been dropped from the Blackrock iShares Clean Energy ETF.
Blackrock have declined to comment.
Ah well, the volume can be picked up by others in the market.
We aren’t going to keep the lights on this winter with good intentions alone.
That article is the only thing I can see.
I think it is daft as the CFD and ROC arrangements are set.
Would be very bad form to make such a change in policy especially as UK needs new investment in the transition.
It wouldn’t help.
I just think it is nervousness with the big moves we have had.
Would already be above £5 if the economic worries were not hitting the wider market.
The market needs to get its head around the idea, the rest of the economy will lose and the energy sector IS winning. A pity for the people who have to hug an index, but we are not them.
Happy days!!!.
https://twitter.com/yanqinyq/status/1443152968187056134?s=21
Missed adding the link
RIF
I make you right on a lot of your points and it is quite pertinent the stagflation point.
We are heading for a recession, if not already in one.
That is a good argument to get out of discretionary consumer companies as the customer won’t have the cash to buy them or they won’t be able to produce sufficient volumes as their production in China has been curtailed.
In the meantime, the resource part of the global economy will do very well.
I reckon a lot of bank desks will be fearful of putting out research on how profictable the resource sector will be for the next few years at they will have to mark down the other sectors.
In summary, hold onto TGA for dear life.
You have missed off the royalty on the sales price and corporation tax on the profits. There are posts earlier on that.
But also note
https://twitter.com/energy_blogger/status/1441490084566421509?s=21
Good luck to any sellers
Too high is in the eye of the beholder.
Windfall tax by who? The SA government gets a royalty on the coal price and they get corporation tax.
They are quite happy with how things are going.
If the consumers have a problem, they can always get their coal elsewhere.
I think the Barclays research price is very achievable.
This winter will prove the Drax concept. They have built a zero carbon business (Drax PS)with the added benefit of pumped storage. The system is crying out for flexibility.
So the business is bringing in cash this winter and the value going forward if demonstrated.
Pinnacle looks like a fantastic acquisition. There is self supply for all 4 units this winter and, even if the non CFD unit is less utilised next summer, the biomass can be sold onto a third party.
And that is even before Carbon Capture.
Tbh - I don’t factor that into my analysis. Is a bonus.
Maybe Drax were looking with the timing of their purchases - but who cares?!?
API4 Cal 22 traded this morning at $135.
Compare that to the price on the day of distribution to shareholders of $92.
I can see a bumber first dividend. Why keep 70% of free cash flows. The capital support agreement with Anglo American is not relevant now. The stabilisers are no longer needed on the bije.
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1711572880216755244&wfr=spider&for=pc
The idea that Chinese demand is abating anytime soon is not one I subscribe to. They have bugger all stocks at the power stations.
Click on this link then use translate but I will extract part of it:
Source: China Business News
Original title: Guangdong initiates a new round of power rationing, and high-energy-consuming enterprises in some areas rationing power for a week
"The power limit has been longer, and we don't know what to do now."
"The power rationing period has increased, and we don't know what to do now." Wu Deguang, a manufacturing owner in Dongguan, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News today.
On September 22, Wu Deguang received a text message from the Houjie Power Supply Branch of the Dongguan Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid. In principle, in accordance with the requirements of the Municipal Development and Reform Bureau's "Notice on the Implementation of Staggered Power Consumption for Enterprises with High Energy Consumption", please stop using electricity for industrial production loads at all times every day from September 22-26, 2021."
I wouldn’t use the term in your title, GL.
But I will say this, if you want to get in decent volume, it is only really on a down day.
And if you want to sell decent volume, it needs to be on an up day.
I made my last buy on Monday and some buys on Friday. The one on Friday was decent size but I had to split it into 4 lots as when I tried to buy in my preferred size, the achievable price went up.
And that was on a down day.
There are not enough market makers in the stock - YET.
Now if the market cap gets up to £1B, would think that would change. But there doesn’t HAVE to be lots of MMs in this stock as there is not the required flow each day from indices.
Ah well - am in this this for a few more pounds anyway.
The Thungela stock we demerged on 7th June. If you were a shareholder of AAL on or around 4th June, you should have been allocated shares.
If you were not - is not relevant.
There is a Thungela page on this website.
Best to keep this board discussion to AAL.
Not happening - can see why the mention of it has spooked
He has to say it hasn’t been ruled out as he can’t be seen to be on the side of the winner when so many are losing.
But who would it be on? The supplier? The generator? The government will be making more out of corporation tax anyway.
I would be very surprised to see a market update before the close period on this company.
With the current storm, noone will want to be seen to be making money.
All you have to do is look at the published price data and the nominations to the balancing market to see how the company is effectively doing.