Member Info for Teddy100

Hi Portland, I think you a bit underweight with your costings, I have shopped around and my average is 200 pound a person, not a lot of pain for me, but for a family of 4, it is prohibitive. Also I booked my business class flights two week ago, with BA of course and if I booked them this morning I would have saved over 200quid. I am not deramping, 40% of my portfolio is with IAG but as things stand 80% of the UK population will not be holidaying abroad.

@Adobe. The next trading statement will be out on the 10th June.

Back in at 4:28pm, over sold and over-hyped, today is going to be a good day.

Unfortunately for UK aviation the taste did not live up to the sizzle, I will be very surprised if this opens blue. BJ was vague and all the other ducks will need to be lined up before aviation gets the nod. The vaccine debacle in the EU has changed the landscape and even considering what the USA has achieved with their vaccine roll out they are still having their issues. Even for USA citizens as things stand, they are being discouraged from International travel and need to test and quarantine. I am still an investor here and not deramping but the SP is in the upper range. It is a 10 Billion pound company, over twice what it was last October and they are still not flying anywhere. I know better than anyone that long term this is a no-brainer investment but they need to get planes in the sky PDQ, if we are still in this mess in July/August things will be tricky. The first quarters are out on the 7th of May so the good news can’t come soon enough.

@BB: If you take the three year from 2017-2019 the average death rate in the UK was 1692 people a day, the majority by heart attack and stroke. If you look at the COVID numbers now and in the coming weeks, (I expect it to drop below 50 a day) it will be apparent to all that the medicine is worse than the disease. The only issue with this share at the moment is the opportunity cost of your cash. Travel will happen in August/September but my personal belief is that we will miss the May slot. BJ wants complete assurance that COVID is defeated before he opens international travel, the political risk is too great.

I have been invested here since last summer and I have to say the SP is odd. The daily volumes are very low to the issue which could be an anomaly and I have topped up to take advantage of the appealing SP, especially if you consider the trend in the last 6 weeks. There is a lot of selling going on, but like others, I don’t know why, the accounts to me should have warranted a rapid increase. The share has dropped 20% in 8 days, odd, I am hoping for a dramatic uptick in the coming days.

I stated last month that this share is not for the nervous, forget your TA and fundamentals this SP revolves around COVID and unfortunately it gave us a kicking in the last few days. I was betting on full steam ahead by Mid May but if IAG don’t have a licence to operate they are in difficulty, the only reason why the SP is still at this level is the positivity of the USA, if big Joe starts looking inwards and if Europe is off limits this summer, it will be trading 150 -170p, the 1st quarter results are out on the 7th of May which won’t be great, this share was always a COVID gamble. It will come good but this is a stumble.

Next trading update is the 26th March.

Group operating profit of 186m (EBITDA) and:
"Due to the roll out of vaccines and the lifting of restrictions, allowing a steady recovery in revenue in the second-half such that by December 2021 group revenue recovers to levels similar to December 2019. Under this scenario we anticipate robust positive cash flow in 2021 as EBITDA improves through out the year". This is what the City and II's want to hear, a rapid return to where we were. GLA.

I cant see this dropping tomorrow, the Fed have just announced no interest rate hikes with a nice bounce over the water. The IAG SP performed well today offering good support from Mid-afternoon through-out. Then factor in a Red low volume day and it was a decent show. I topped up today as I believe this is ready to move, I am not too concerned about the Vaccine news, we have enough to do the over 50's and it seems remote that the EU will block Vaccine Exports. GLA.

Not unusual for investors and swing traders to avoid results day, a good opportunity to top up. Both the USA and UK charging ahead with vaccine rollout where we make 90% of our profits (Potential). If it dips another % I will add even more. The order book is seeing plenty of support, I cant see this fading.

It does not state a date: "Board continues to work towards paying a dividend at an appropriate level in the 2021 calendar year".
Share being held back today looking at the buying pressure, I can see a new price level in the coming weeks.

Good finish today, 3.16% following auction. Aercap CEO expecting London to New York to be the first long haul route to recover. Nice warm glow all around today.

I too was amazed at the figures, I was a bit disappointed I did not sell at 11% to buy back in but it was looking likely at one point they were going to press on. The Stock will definitely be regraded, if you look at all the transport stocks GOG has a lot of catching up to do where it was pre-Covid.

@Secretly: Nothing ever moves in a straight line. GOG released their trading update this morning which were positive, they were up 12% at one point, we should get a steady lift today.

@Livestock: In the bounce back, IAG are targeting the FF segment (Friends and Family) they are less reliant on Business class than Lufthansa and AF. Further to that from my experience and that of associates, you cannot replicate face to face meetings for getting a deal done. Business travel will come back, granted it will be down on preCovid levels but if you want a competitive advantage you will turn up. The challenge for IAG is to get its customers to trade up without necessarily relying on the business community.

@Canary: Firstly, this share is not for the nervous, if certain Covid strains cannot be overcome Global travel will be severely restricted and result in the IAG SP bombing and possible Gov’t interventions which will result in further share dilution.

I don’t think that will happen but it is the reason why the SP is still 50% of where it was was. Where is was? Top heavy, Legacy contracts, Inefficient planes, intense competition. When things get back to normal, IAG will be leaner and meaner. BA alone has seen a reduction of 10,000 employees, Aer Lingus 500 and Iberia with pay-cuts of up to 45%. The removal of the Gas-Guzzlers, more efficient planes. When running an airline the two most expensive operating costs are Labour and fuel. The operating cost structure of IAG pre Covid now and then is night and day. The competition is less, you mention Lufthansa, AF receiving subsidies, that is what makes them weak, look at Alitalia. IAG is the best run airline in the world, factor in two hubs with 360 global reach, we will be untouchable. Look ahead like the II’s do, this share could be easily 500-600p in 3 years and it will certainly be 300p before the end of the year.

I am Optimistic in this share because I believe in it.

@Tone: it will be fairly priced when it hits 400p.

Well the rotation from Tech to Cyclicals and Value stocks did not last very long, as I write Tesla up 20%. The Nasdaq is completely bonkers.

We got a kicking last Friday when the Nasdaq dropped, interesting to see if we will get a lift when it opens. It is looking positive and I heard this morning that the OECD have increased the Global GDP forecast to 6.25% nearly double on previous estimate.