Member Info for Teddy100

Strange trading day today, inflation worries, negative sentiment but that said it is always some narrative to create volatility. Took a big punt at 176p, hoping for a 3% uptick tomorrow morning. Considering how the market has opened up and Uncle Joe giving us the nod, this share is still at the lower end of its trading channel.

I am thinking we have seen the worst today.

The SP stalled due to the spiralling costs of oil. Jet fuel is a major cost for airlines and it is a very complex exercise of cross edging with WTI, Brent etc. If Brent punches 100 dollars PPB, this will have a very negative effect on profitability. Factor in inflation and possible interest rate hikes, the environment looks a bit more challenging. This will punch 250p in the next 6 months but there will be days of significant retraces, a traders dream.

@Benji: You are on the right track. The data showing completed buys and sells on this platform and others is worthless with a FTSE 100 share, especially IAG which is highly traded. The software calculates the spread and if it is above the midpoint it is shown as a buy and below a sell. Never base investment decisions on this data. Also, the after close sells and buys shown in the ticker are never after hours, they are only posted after hours but are traded during the day and already calculated in the closing price. There is very little liquidity in the post market.

Sorry, that should be 10 tankers, never go near a calculator when you have had a bottle of red!

That seem a crazy figure, 300 tankers, but having just worked it out, it would take 15 fuel tankers to top up one A380. Much better to talk about supply pipe lines then we don’t have to focus on the numbers! BB is correct, there is only one threat facing aviation and that is the Green Brigade. Govt’s can’t stop people moving but they can make it more complex and expensive, which they will do in the coming years.

@Uptheladder: Heathrow airport will not be affected by the tanker crisis. Firstly most of the fuel is piped in from more than one refinery and there are multiple pipes. When the fuel arrives at Heathrow it is stored in one of two facilities where it is allowed to settle and then pumped under the airfield in a maze of pipes to allow filling. The tanker drivers moving around the airfield I believe are employed by AFS and Swissport. That said a few tankers are still used but the majority is piped. I remember Manchester airport running out of fuel a few years ago as they only deal with one refinery and one pipe, I believe it is Essar who are on the brink of bankruptcy, so they will be twitching up there I am sure. I recall someone saying to me some years ago that if all fuel was tanked that Heathrow would require over 300 tankers a day, this is not practical, hence the supply pipes.

The cash is coming from the up front bookings, one of the benefits of running an airline. The USA searches for BA have increased by 700% in the last 24 hours. The big rise is when the II’s jump back in.

I am back breathing again, now the road to 400psville. Poor BB has turned from a passive deramper to a blatant one. No skin no win my friend.

Just did a quick flick through for start of December, BA are sending 8 flights a day (Their own Metal) at average 4K a pop for Business, this is what makes BA a differentiator. Don’t be tempted to sell, Paddyboy is right it will be 200p plus by the end of the week.

Someone get down to Waterside (BA Head Office) and plug them machines in.

The money printing machines.

@Lloyd: I should better go to Gamblers Anonymous as all my dough is in IAG as I believe this share will be 400p in 2 or 3 years time. Investing is a risk and currently I am about 15% under water on a significant investment. I invest in IAG as I know this airline. It does not keep me awake at night and I have no serious leverage on it apart from about 20% which is manageable. That said a RI would not be good for shareholders at this stage, the SP is not robust enough and there will be too much dilution for long term holders like me.. The aviation industry has been given a life line and if you look at the European market for BA it is looking very healthy, BA are sending 5-7 daily flights a day out to Barcelona in November alone, normally considered the second worst month after February, do some research on other European destinations you will be surprised. BA have the envious advantage of being based at Heathrow where the UK wealth is who want to fly business or with more comfort in Economy and reliability from a convenient location. The majority of their customer don’t care a ****e- about the price difference between a Lateral flow or a PCR. test. The test to get back to blighty killed the weekend break market, it is back on, affluent, time poor people love weekend breaks. Don’t underestimate the potential market for BA, as I have stated many times on this BB when things get back to normal, as they slowly are, BA is a licence to print money. The RI ain’t happening, BA is a great brand and a great product, the Phoenix is rising my friend and as I have been informed them coffers are sucking that cash up with them Autumn/Winter bookings.

Good point Benji, If we can’t change their world, we can change the World around them. I don’t know of one adult who hasn’t been double jabbed, I would imagine those vaccine abstainers are probably the camper types anyway, who like to go for long walks and eat Tomato sandwiches.

It doesn’t get dumped, it will move from a PCR to a lateral flow, probably at the end of October. Even those (PCR) can be bought for 40 quid. As it stands you can travel anywhere (Not Red) for the price of 4 G&T’s and not have the risk of being stranded for 10 days. I can see the headlines now, IAG website crashes due to booking overload, chaps, give them A380’s a quick lube we are gonna need em.

Of course there will be a lot of profit taking and generally Friday is a down day, but for me there is too much positive news coming down the line. I will only start trading this when America opens, can you imagine holding dry powder when America opens?

In fact- We might get one today looking at the order book.

The day 2 is not an issue, at the most it will put a 40 quid on the cost of a holiday. The travel history want the return to Blighty one removed. The risk is taken away of being stuck in a foreign country.

@BB- Cognisance of the accounts of IAG deems to me that a RI will not be necessary in the immediate future-6 months. The ending of Furlough was always going to focus the mind, BJ would have been getting it from all directions of the consequences of continued close skies after September, redundancies and lots of them. I am
Looking forward to them 10% plus days, they are a coming. .

Now, hopefully all this s-hite about a RI will go away! The big one is eradicating the Covid test to get back in to Blighty, too much risk for your average family. I took mine in Malta yesterday and if I or the Mrs was positive the authorities would have to be informed and be instructed to go into immediate quarantine, factor in a few kids and it looks a big risk. Watch the bookings fly for autumn and winter all that lovely dosh upfront. The icing is the U.S.A. I have no doubts this will be 400p in 2-3 years. Well done to those who held and topped up.

@BB: You can be annoying but I would not describe you as malevolent.

I have never edited one person on a BB and I am happy to consider both sides of an argument. What I don’t like is malevolence and spite from a bear poster. An individual who takes glee and pleasure from a distressed investor who is just trying to earn a few quid need a punch on the fecking nose and we know who those tools are.