Member Info for taylot

Hahaha, surprised it took you this long to bring that up!!!!! What can I say, called it wrong - massively misled by BoD - as per the fact Hoskins are raising legal issues. Only a small loss tho, which will be recouped and much more besides shortly ;-)

Based on what? As based on the SFR offer for MOD - which was dismissed out of hand - quite clear IMO MTR are significantly undervalued.

Yes they have. IF it is right for the company. Depends on the eventual sale price of MOD. If my memory serves me correctly, as this research was a few years back - zzzzzz. The discovery metals offer included the Boseto mine which cupric now own, and paid not very much for. The exploration licences were then picked up by MOD/MTR (who paid a pittance) to ensure competion and proper exploration.

Haroo - I think that’s a valid opinion. I just think the mid/majors want something definitively tangible and that is the T3 pit. Hence why I think they will be the first target. It’s only January and I’ve already been spectacularly wrong on one stock already so let’s see what develops... ATB.

Yup, on completion of a scoping study if I recall correctly - more royalties. The same terms in the deal will pass over on a complete buyout of MOD. There is also a proviso that upon buyout of MOD the purchaser will also have the option to aquire MTRs stake of the JV - should they do wish.

No it doesn’t - IMO. Not much benefit to a mod/major holding the minority stake in the exploration area. And only the equity in MOD as exposure to the T3 pit. It is also not (as I understand it) the BoDs plan to sell the company - short of an insane offer - but rather to continue to build and develop MTR. What makes sense (and what I fully expect to happen and have for some time) is that MOD will be bought out at some point this year - ideally well north of A$1. The purchaser will then own T3 outright and the controlling stake in the exploration licences. What this will mean for MTR will be a substantial cash windfall (25%ish of purchase price) AND a resulting 30/70 JV with the mid/major for the exploration areas. The capital can then be used to advance KML AND the 30% JV costs. The deal that was struck by MM with MOD for T3 pit will come into its own, with royalties only capped at T3 pit and the ability to sell each satellite deposit as they are priced up. Patience will be rewarded for the long termers. And an unbelievable entry for newbies. ATB.

Good luck ExtC. Good to share research and I maintain what I, you and a few others posted was factual and accurate. Shame we were misled in various guises. For those looking for the video it was on CNN. Personally my feelings are the deal is done. They will have already contacted K.Everitt and the other large holders and Tinklers buy was just to push it through. Good luck to all those holding and any that are looking to take this further, alas these are pros and I’ll bet they are just on the right side of the law. Morals and money rarely mix. ATB.

BUT Flybe do not own them. And clearly they're attributed little to no value in this transaction - rightly or WRONGLY.

Things will be much clearer tomorrow I think. Good luck to all those playing the high stakes.

Personally I think this deal has been in motion for some time and will go through.

Lessons - 1. Take profit. 2. De-risk. 3. Don't go all in. 4. Don't "invest" what you cant afford. And importantly 5. Expect to be screwed over as money and morals do not go hand in hand.

POST ONE:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10075367/Flybe-sells-Gatwick-slots-to-easyJet-for-20m.html

25 slots were sold for £20m. So pro rata 6 slots is £4.8m. BUT that was Gatwick and that was 2013.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2017/03/30/sas-sells-heathrow-slots-75-million/

2 slots at $75m (£58m) also sold a single slot for $60m in 2015!!!!

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/270502/flybe-gains-access-to-heathrow-with-scotland-remedy-slots/

Flybe will have 45 flights a week (25 EDI and 20 ABZ) The SAS article "states SAS has the sixth largest number of Heathrow slots. Its current tally of 19 slots will, after this particular pair of slots are transferred, therefore be reduced to 17 (slot) pairs." So my assumption is that the slots are daily slots? Flybe have 45 flights, so 6/7 a day?

Lets say each slot is worth £30m (they are daytime slots) 7 slots are therefore worth circa £180m???

Looks like i was totally wrong!!!!

Thoughts??

POST TWO:
So. Different times different days but overall 0845, 0945,1120, 1450, 1805, 1820, 2020, 2045.

However from the SAS article "Last year Kenya Airways sold its one and only Heathrow slot to Oman Air for no less than US$75 million. Oman Air now uses the slot for its overnight Muscat-London service which arrives early the following morning – a peak time for long-haul arrivals at Heathrow which explains the hefty fee Oman Air was prepared to pay.
NOTE: "overnight Muscat-London service which arrives early the following morning" which would mean according to Oman website is the 0555 ARR and then the 0825 DEP.

The flights at the top are DEP. The arrival times of the Flybe slots include 0620, 0705 and 0855.

Average value is still going to be good if the 0555 is worth $75m / £58m.

For balance the turnaround times for long haul stuff is obvious going to be a lot different so not sure how that would work.

It does show however the LHR slots are worth more than what some (myself included) have attributed.

This was discussed to death last year, sadly -in hindsight- I and others attributed far too much value to them. Bit late to be researching that now though to be honest..

Yes they are worth millions, probably over £100m. They are not on the balance sheet because Flybe do not own them, (not yet anyway) they are remedy slots from the BMI/BA deal. It is the reason Virgin et al do not want Flybe to go to the wall because those slots will lapse back to BA.

How much is the court battle for? 10% is a big chunk and could be decisive.. Cost him £750k but hell get £250k back...

"quit the court case and i will vote your way ;-)"

cough cough.

Good evening ExtC. Great research as ever and for sure this is a complete stitch up, I recall you alluding to something similar in regards to MAEL and low and behold here it is again. No matter what COW has behaved unlawfully. Either this is a complete con and she is complicit. Or the company really is desperate and there is no other choice, in which case she has completely misled the market, lied, and put on a superb acting performance in the CNN video. My main concern now is how this unfolds as my employment is much more important than the amount I had invested.

I don’t think that is correct. The new entity will be owned by Stobart/virgin/Cyrus - no mention of shareholders. Stand to be proven wrong tho.. For sure tinkled going 10% raises big questions.. counter bid perhaps??

What the **** is going on?!?!? What a SCAM!!!!!

Sadly this is the point. The BoD and in particular COW have completely mugged the market and PIs. Look at that interview she did - absolute total *******s. They have mislead massively IMO, clearly the cash position is much much worse than led to believe as why else would they and more importantly the advisors recommend this tragic offer unless there really was no other choice. Massive volume today so Monday will be much clearer - have a feeling they’ll be some more surprises - but I think the bigger holders will be more inclined to take the offer - they will see it as better than nothing and letting the company fold will not look good PR wise. Shit start to the year.

What a complete farce this is. Looks like the BoD have well and truly ****ed PI’s over - and feathered there own nest while they were at it!!!! Accounts must be much worse than predicted. Is this the only way to save Flybe? Surely not!!!!! ****s sake!!!!!!

Seriously £20m is laughable. I can’t believe the BoD will recommend such a low figure. If so their careers at this level are effectively over. I would expect (hope) to see something along the lines of “this off significantly undervalues Flybe and we invite further offer - hint BA. 9p will leave me a bit better then B/E - certainly not what I had envisaged... won’t be selling either way.

Why set a stop loss for 8p??? IF the offer is £20million it won’t be accepted by shareholders. That’s a joke. And if that is the case I fully expect BA / IAG to just swoop in and steal it from under bransons nose - again. But more crap from COW by the looks of things.

One of the reason for the lack of action in MOD on LSE is the fact there are little to no LSE shares because MOD didn’t issue any. Cock up corporately IMO.

You probably know plenty that I don’t ;-)