Member Info for taudelta

.. it was just incremental ... let's see what they come up with at their presentation in London tomorrow, presume it will go up on the web site ... superb value down below 20p ... GL

aired in NYC yesterday, now up on website ... GLA

Continued strong FUM growth, very nice divvy increase ... GLA

Hi Bilbo ... late reply, just called in today! ... spread reflects very limited trading ... the shares are very tightly held. The SP has broken out on the upside today ... final result due Wed 11 March ... should make good reading ... GL

Co said will soon bring at least 50% of Mnazi contingent resources into reserves ... i.e. 50% of 667 Bcf... or 333.5 Bcf ... but about 220 Bcf is "spoken for" (to be consumed in next 5 years and already estimated by WRL to generate $140 mln cash flow net to WRL). So the "excess" or "new" reserves should be at least 114 Bcf gross or 36.4 Bcf net.. At $2/mcf (after costs) this equates to $73 mln extra assets to WRL or 28p/share. Using a crude guideline of SP= 0.2*RENAV, this would seem to be worth very roughly an extra 0.2*28 = 5 to 6 p per share. IMO, DYOR, GLA.

Think WRL is now effectively 100% in TANZ following the duster in the MOZA sector of Rivuma onshore. The Rivuma asset was only about 10% of my valuation model as the Ccos seemed to be vulnerable to Anadarko having much bigger fish to fry in MOZA, namely their major offshore asset and the plan for a big LNG plant to monetise it. It seems fairly certain there won't be any more drilling on Rivuma. The exploration prospects are much more solid in TANZ, where they have decent gcos across a number of areas, and are in partnership only with Maurel et Prom (+ the local participation), no Anadarko involvement up north ... all in all the 10% drop in SP today seems a fair reaction to MOZA moving out of the picture ... hope for decent 4Q report on Thurs ... GLA

agreed. Think very soon it may edge up slightly as 3.37 in Oslo and NOK has firmed a bit.. GL

.. cash at 30 June 14 was $61.7 and no debt, estimated admin burn since then $5 mln, so I estimate $57 mln now ... less any Otakikpo expenses made so far ..... When they farmed in to 40% of Otakikpo, the agreement with Green Energy (see 20 May 2014 RNS) was to find bank finance for about 80% of the estimated $67mln for first phase, leaving say $14mln equity finance ... they also agreed for LEK to provide all of this equity initially, and then LEK will recover Green's 60% of it from initial oil revs. Since then LEK has said (see 16 Dec 14 RNS) the project is likely to come well under budget and is "fully funded with cash on hand'... they haven't said so, but I think it's possible they will inject more equity and use the banks less. All in all I think they are comfortable to bridge the time to cash flow from production without equity fundraising. I even think they are financially capable of buying out AFR's stake in Ogo should AFR default, although I think it more likely that AFR's stake in Ogo will soon belong to SEPLAT. GL....

board ... I don't like to give an investment opinion, but willing to share thoughts about particular aspects ... (incidentally rise in oil price from $48 to $54 adds about 5p per share to the value of Otakikpo compared to my post of 27 Jan)... a source of uncertainty is Afren, a partner in the Ogo (OPL310) exploration asset.. a SEPLAT takeover of Afren would be good news... GL...

looks as though could go either way... SEPLAT or equity from new major investor(s), prefer SEPLAT as they will bring expertise and emphasise developing AFR's Nigerian assets, likely best option for LEK i.e. for Ogo to proceed quickly.... watch that space ....

like for likes (rns today) very promising for continued strong growth at Youngs .... the FST LFLs were up 6.8% at 43 weeks, up from 6.5% at 26 weeks, implies roughly 7.3% for last 17 weeks... London pubs booming!

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not a major hazard IMO... the LEK admission doc specifies that the farm-in to OPL310 (containing the major Ogo discovery) has a joint operating agreement (JOA) per the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators (AIPN) model agreement (2002 version). This provides remedies to LEK in the event of an AFR default, including AFR forfeiture and enforced buyout of AFR's stake by LEK. DYOR but in view of this I am happy to put a knock-down risked value of $1 per boe on LEK's net 232 mmboe (P50) in Ogo, i.e. $232mln or 42.6p/share. At $48 oil, Otakikpo is worth 21p/share and there is cash of 11p/share. Total 75p/share. Clearly a SEPLAT takeover of AFR (or SEPLAT purchase of Nigerian assets from bankruptcy administrators) or a convincing AFR equity financing would be better that AFR limping badly... but I don't think limping will be an option for very long.. in any event, the OPL310 licence doesn't expire until 2019. DYOR and GLA.

shows still further steady growth in FUM ... GLA

LEK would be small beer to SEPLAT... but think that all will be good for LEK in the end... AFR is rather rudderless at present, but think in the absence of a full takeover, the Nigerian government will want some stability by means of SEPLAT cherry picking AFRs assets potentially including OPL310 ... one way or another OPL310 will eventually get a credible operator... LEK is very attractive long term but patience will be required ... meanwhile there is some downside protection from the cash balance and the cash flow from Otkikpo starting this year ... note that the value of Otakikpo to which I referred is calculated with $40 oil (see today's RNS).

is covered by reserves in Otakikpo plus cash. AFR not involved in Otakikpo. comeonvog ... AFR is the operator of LEK's exploration asset known as OPL310... you can find out about OPL310 on both the LEK and AFR websites. If not taken over by SEPLAT, AFR will need to cut back exploration spending, and OPL310 will likely go dormant pending a rise in the oil price... if SEPLAT takes over AFR, I believe the outlook for OPL310 will be enhanced.

trading statement today, hinting at div increase when full results published, GLA

yep! Sounds like you are a CAMRA member... if not, you will have a lot of fun with people at your local branch if you join... GL

nicely ... mebbe IIs & analysts waking up to lower Cu prices which are highly beneficial for SPX's eps.

before we buy, then we pay more. Maybe DO(ur)OR a better idea!