Member Info for taudelta

L fer Lewis Hamilton, L fer leather ... GLA

Hi Annie, if they can't raise the finance for the smelter, think that the worst case might be a fire sale of the co ... the buyer motivated to acquire the Fe/V/Ti in the ground.. I'm not even sure that the "fire sale price" would be below the current SP ... GL

a bit now... no trades today but inside quote is 23.25-23.75 .. GLA

Total value of trades taking us down to 4 3/8 has been really tiny ... not worth worrying about ... we should see the rest of the finance in place soon ... though there is of course risk (in fact ability to finance is just about the only major risk) ... I do think though that the value of this to the local economy ought to deliver the medium term (5 year) loan finance required of approx $50 mln ... the projected cash flows mean that this is not really very high risk lending ... DYOR & GLA ...

just to reinforce my point, just two trades have taken the SP down to 10.25, namely 50k at 10.75 and 28k at 10.16 ... the total value of those two trades is about £8000 ... how ridiculous is that!

500 b/d gross is 125 b/d net to EDR, i.e. 45,625 per annum. This is a low cost field, and pretax income generated from this level of production should be circa £700,000 pa net to EDR, nearly cancelling out all their G&A expenses ... a very worthwhile development. DYOR, and follow the fundamentals, don't worry about one day's perverse SP movement... GLA ...

were buys as the true market (tested with dummy trades) started today at 11.0 bid/11.4 offered ... GLA

good quarterly FUM performance again ... GLA

crosses from one account to another (e.g. from one of their investment trusts to a pension fund), they have to do it in the market, but they can get it done at the same price for both sides. I seem to recall a few days ago two large trades consecutive at exactly the same price, so I think this happened. When this takes place, there will be no RNS, because the controlling II hasn't increased or decreased the aggregate shares under its control... GLA

have swung the price today on very little volume (fact is, it was about £20k for the whole day) ... this could be motivated by fear, but I don't think so, given that their profit or loss today must have been really tiny (I doubt it was more than £1000) ... think it's more likely they want to generate interest by manipulating the chart .. for what it's worth, IMO, EDR is priced attractively relative to a good balance of conventional and shale assets, given it has cash rather than debt (unlike IGAS which has a lot of borrowings). GLA

has been tiny today ... about £10k ... and to emphasise this, the ask has just gone up by .50 on the back of a 5000 sh trade (less than £500) .. so I don't read anything into the price movements, except perhaps that when we do get some news, there is potential for a big swing .. GLA

(Wolf Energy) the price didn't lift off until digging ore out became nearly imminent (a few months away) ... if IRON behaves the same, we shouldn't expect much till 2016 ... when there is major upside in prospect ... so it depends on your time horizon ... GLA

well GM, the government wouldn't be a bad partner ... and if the government takes the stake for peppercorn, that doesn't affect LEK, it just penalises Afren's long list of creditors ... but think it's more likely that the Administrator will offer first refusal to the existing participants, i.e. LEK and Optimum. Hopefully these two won't bid up against each other. There may be a new party interested, who knows? In any case I think the big force behind the shares over the next few months will be Otakikpo ... GL

hints they will use Otakikpo cash flow to service new debt that will be used to buy into something new. Not sure where OPL310 is going (maybe LEK not sure either?). Interested to hear all your thoughts folks....

interesting, thank you, perhaps there is a growing recognition that production should begin next year, and the price of HPI (which is very stable, unlike iron ore) suggests that the profit would generate a very low PE ratio at the current SP ... GLA ..

given the POO, that Otakikpo (very low cost onshore oil) has now really eclipsed Ogo (subsea, high cost) .. I suspect Lekan is holding out for a very low price in his negotiations with the Afren Administrator .. I wouldn't cry if LEK doesn't increase its Ogo stake, as there will be opportunities to use Otakikpo cash flow to buy more low cost onshore acreage... GLA ...

.. the interview is worth listening in to ... provides insight into timing of further assessment of the 6kb/d Otakikpo well, commencement of production from it, and spudding of "Well number 3", all 4Q events ... GLA

Not sure they would need that much for Ogo ... after all the existing stake is being valued at about half the current market cap (on the assumption that Otakikpo and Ogo are of roughly equal value ... sure Ogo has big potential but needs a highish oil price whereas Otakikpo profitable below $30 oil ... bird in the hand.) Also wonder if the third partner may also be offered the Afren stake to share with LEK? Three are some serious institutional players on board which is highly encouraging. Agree SP should have responded better to the Otakikpo news... but maybe will respond later if reserves are reappraised. GL

news today mildly positive, has attracted yawns ... GLA ...

worthwhile exercise is to look at the price of HPI, high purity iron powder, it doesn't behave anything like iron ore, it's very stable, not below but in fact a bit above the level assumed in IRON's latest presentation ... the economics remain very robust, worth some DYOR folks, GLA ...