Member Info for taudelta

enjoyed that thanks! Merry Xmas ...

no financing yet, but more apparently within reach soon, good progress! GLA ..

is where they picked up two hot blocks today, in the Gainsboro Trough, a 15% interest in each of SE31c and SK59b .. Total Pete are partners in these blocks .. allez les bleus!

.. take a look at the IGAS SP this morning and draw your own conclusions, GLA ...

agree placing is very poss, but not sure SP action shows anything as the volume in £ is so tiny. 100,000 = £5k. Agree IRON looking really fine at this level... GLA ..

EDR's costs at its major conventional fields are sub $40. Wressle (in development) is less than $25. Key exploration areas incl Holmwood, Biscathorpe, Laughton, Louth and North Kelsey are between $25 and $39. An exception is the A Prospect which is under water literally (although next to shoreline) and under water cost-wise at $55/boe (it's a gas field). It's too early to give costs for the unconventional, all we can say is that globally dry land is the place to be.. GLA

up on website today ... several prospects seem to have been upgraded in terms of prospective mmboe ..

to celebrate with a pint of Abbot! GLA..

slow pick-up in the share price today .. this is bigger news than the forthcoming upward revision of Otakikpo quantities, but I think a lot of folk are focusing more on the latter as it's near-term, cheap production .. while 310 is more expensive and therefore more distant ...we all seem to be in a permanently low POO type mentality .. but in time the Saudi balance of payments will become more critical and new people will be running their oil ministry! GLA

on website gives very detailed projections, re amounts of Fe,V,TiO2, assumed prices, non-financial costs and consequent pre-interest cash flow.. in fact the greatest numerical unknown at present, IMO, is the interest rate that will be paid on the debt, and that's what's being negotiated. All the above is based on the single small smelter... people with long memories will recall earlier presentations incorporating much greater smelting capacity ... these plans will surely be revived once the initial smelter gets under way, because limiting the smelting capacity to the first smelter gives a reserve life measurable in centuries! GLA

like the extra divvy announced today ... GLA ..

if half the market cap is ascribed to unconventional, that works out at just £62/acre, or $93/acre .. ridiculous considering top quality acreage in the Widmerpool and Gainsborough .. one to own in 2016 as central government now holds the key, IMO, DYOR, GLA ...

.. all positive, I think the fundamentals add to the positive saucer pattern in the chart, IMO, DYOR and GLA ..

Maybe, just maybe, he can't buy because he holds material non-public information (concerning debt funding).. GL ..

"Of course we can’t be complacent. We currently import around half of our gas needs, but by 2030 that could be as high as 75%. That’s why we’re encouraging investment in our shale gas exploration so we can add new sources of home-grown supply to our real diversity of imports. There are also economic benefits in building a new industry for the country and for communities. Our North Sea history means the UK is a home to world class oil and gas expertise, in Aberdeen and around the UK – we should build on that base so that our shale potential can be exploited safely."

Co has given data for Otakikpo from which a $23 breakeven can be inferred. Initial revenues imminent, around turn of year. There isn't really yet such a thing as "full production" as the more wells are established, the greater will be the output, but the faster will the field be depleted. One can focus instead on the value of the 2P/2C which is about $114 mln at $48 POO. Although the 2P/2C will very probably be upped (IMO), Otakikpo does not alone justify the SP, which depends on progress offshore (OPL310 & OPL325). The offshore hydrocarbons are high cost, so despite Otakikpo being low cost, LEK is in fact quite highly leveraged to the POO. GL ...

but seriously, by my calculation (but DYOR!), EPS from a full year's production from the first smelter is 2p per share, this obviously is dependant on the HPI price but this has been very steady (totally unlike iron ore that's reliant on Chinese buying). And there is long term EPS potential from further smelting facilities. Substantially the only major risk IMO is securing the finance.. the question then for each of us to address is whether the share price exaggerates the financing risk... GLA

IGAS has announced on one of its websites (but not as an RNS) that the proposed unconventional drill into Gainsboro Trough PEDL 139/140 at Springs Road N Notts has passed preliminary planning procedures and will now go to public consultation. EDR has 14.5% of PEDL 139/140. It is possible that EDR will comment on this in the full year RNS due tomorrow.

Enhances net asset value but increases POO risk. Instead of buying into something intermediate between Otakikpo and OPL310, they have bought into something more expensive than OPL310 to develop and produce (it is in deeper water than Ogo) .. guess they couldn't resist a knock-down price for net 1240 mln bbl potential. They have incidentally said they are negotiating to buy all Afren's stake in OPL310 (see my post yesterday). GLA

Been looking at history of OPL310. Optimum Petroleum was the first on the scene and is licensee. It then farmed out to Afren Oil & Gas (a non-bankrupt subsidiary of bankrupt Afren plc). Subsequently, LEK farmed in to Afren's stake. Optimum is a private co, little info is available, but seems to me like a small entity. When agreement is reached on OPL310 being repackaged, doubtless AOG will quit and be paid something by Optimum/LEK (to be passed back to the administrator of Afren plc), and its stake will be transferred. Given Optimum's likely lack of finance, IMO, Optimum will be happy for substantially all of the Afren stake to go to LEK. LEK will ultimately be well placed to finance a larger share in the development of OPL310, using substantial cash flow from Otakikpo ... however it may not be in a hurry to do so at low POO, because OPL310 is sub-sea and higher cost than Otakikpo. It is very possible that as an intermediate term strategy, LEK will acquire an interest in an onshore "Otakikpo look alike" that is economic at low POO. All IMO, DYOR ...