Member Info for TarryBreeks

The AGM was in London on a week day during the school holidays, not all that easy to attend for anyone with kids outside London Max. We had no idea the farm-out would be announced, as far as we were aware it was just a case of waiting to hear about the development licence and Kiliwani remediation.

I think it's unlikely to be resilience, they would be selling at a significant loss based on the strike price. However it is possible. As we're not expecting production from LCCM for ten months perhaps it's just folks making their cash work elsewhere for a while. Who knows but 1.25p seems ridiculously cheap given what we have in play.

Resilience mining? They've a fair few to offload.

As Crusty has said I think ultimately we have sacrificed much of the upside to limit the downside with this deal. So the risks are considerably lower but we are beholden to ARA and really limited in what we can do outside of perhaps some seismic at Nyuni and remedial work at Kiliwani. The deal is done albeit awaiting final approval for shareholders but I doubt many will vote this down and risk it all. The BOD have got a deal, whether it was the best possible or not is now a moot point. Personally I think the BOD should at minimum postpone their salary increases (as stated multiple times here) until we all benefit. How can they justify their self awarded pay rise when many here are now underwater. The market has not bought into the deal and the BOD are responsible for communicating the benefits. It's a hold from me until CH1 where I am hoping for a spectacular result to offset our reduced share of Ruvuma.

Correct Blackgold, however if we assume that CH1 is successful and flows at more than 40scuffs would the value of the 50% Aminex has given to ARA not change? I suspect that it would do and significantly so and our negotiating position would be significantly better. However, it was not to be. Our BOD have played their(our) cards and we'll see who wins out in the end.

Agreed dvharrison, we must be due an update on HC & Mt Weld soon after the preliminary results were released in June.

Depends on the small print but potentially they may lose some or all of their stake in Ruvuma. I don't think it would come to that but as we are no longer operator who knows.

It would be nice to have a greater sense of urgency from our BOD and TPDC at Kiliwani in that case wouldn't it? I also note from the SOLO RNS that their BOD are taking salaries in shares to protect the company cash position. Our BOD could learn a lesson or two from them.

Interesting developments over at Solo, they've done a placing for 8% and a further conditional placing for 15% and plan an open offer. Their shareprice has not taken a hammering and they intent to pay off their loan facility. However the figures raised do not come close to their share of CH1 so not sure what is going on. I suspect they are in farm-out discussions with ARA too and given the lack of income from Kiliwani and potential cash calls on the horizon for HH and H1 they are shoring up their position. I hope they announce a deal on CH1 soon which will remove another barrier to action at Ruvuma.

I'd also state that my statement on a placing was not in perpetuity, only for FFD at Ruvuma. Wonder when this write up by Malcy will appear? I also wonder when Bhattacherjee will pull out whatever is allegedly up his sleeve?

I'm ok for you to add that in Drewky but please reword a few points on your list: - Up to $140m spend and $35m carry (not free we paid 50% of Ruvuma for that) for Aminex (we don't yet know what the figures to FFD will be) - Chickumbi-1 drill planned this year - Kiliwani Remediation planned this year and income stream to resume

Not sure what the point of discussing that is Tanzania? It's extremely unlikely CH1 will be a duster and now near impossible that we will do a placing.

I certainly can't find the answer kenrun, can you please provide the excerpt that defines what would happen in the IMO very unlikely event that CH1 is a duster?

You would hope in that scenario there are clauses to protect Aminex written into the farmout agreement and the balance of the $35m is still due. However: 1. I don't think that's likely to happen we already know NT2 flows at 17scuffs with a partially collapsed well. 2. I'm not sure I trust the BOD to have included a clause to protect shareholders in that scenario.

I only used $110m in response to Drewky's post CP and I quite agree. If APT are only spending ~$15m to get to 40 scuffs we would be better having the cash. As I suggested earlier even a $20m carry and $20m carry would have given us options. However that wasn't the 'transformational' deal Bhattacherjee has negotiated/had dictated to him. I hope we find oil at CH1; although it will be bitter sweet.

If I had to guess matherdj it would be oil. I suspect we haven't been given the full story even if it's just a strong suspicion. I think there are two pipelines 8" & 12" for oil and gas. I think the costs are high because they think this will be an oil and gas play. Just a hunch and one of the main reasons I've not sold a single share. Time will tell.

I accept we are where we are, and I am by no means trying to attack you or intentionally undermine the shareprice. I struggle to believe anything posted here has a significant effect on the shareprice as anyone doing due diligence before buying would look at official news updates before buying. This forum is just a place for people to share their views. If the EGM is announced with enough notice I plan to share my views in person with the BOD on their salaries. Like everyone here I had no idea this would be announced at the AGM. I think getting in at this price or lower is a great buy, unfortunately for me, and I am sure many others here, I am now far below B/E. The BOD set the timescales of the EGM and we're now in a news vacuum the drop in so is of their making and while I am irritated at people taking advantage of it ultimately it could have been better managed. There has to be a point where it's no longer just a series of unfortunate events and/or bad luck and is actually a case of mis-management. Anyway it's the weekend. I hope something positive comes out next week even if it's just a date for the EGM.

Drewky if you are going to post the positive case for Ruvuma, which I agree is positive albeit lessened IMO due to the BODs mis-management, at least get the details right. ARA are not investing $110m they are underwriting up to $110m of spend to FFD which could very well be reached before the $110m indeed I suspect that ARA very much intend that to be the case. Depending on what the final cost is we will take a larger share of the income from Ruvuma until we have received the $35m consideration for the farm out deal: our money for selling 50% of our 1.87 TCF. Given we will receive this from ~2020 onwards and that, at the low estimate of $12m/year net to Aminex, this will take a little time. Until then we need to ensure operating costs are at an absolute minimum and that any cash we have is used to optimise independent income sources, primarily from Kiliwani. IF we can afford it after Kiliwani remediation then seismic at Nyuni should be an absolute priority. I would far rather have seen $15-20m cash from Zubair Corporation and a $20-25 carry to allow us to drill Kiliwani South. As it stands we can do little other than wait for ARA. As Crusty has pointed out we have been effectively neutered by this deal. While it may be the best hope of monetising Ruvuma, given TPDCs loss in confidence in the BODs ability to successfully complete CH1, we must now sit on our hands and wait. I hope you are right and I hope everything goes according to plan but I've seen and heard lots of Aminex plans before, as have you, and very few so far have been executed on time or in some cases at all (e.g back-to-back NT3 & self funding field development).

Jay Bhattacherjee was on £30k/ month before they increased their salaries. Given we won't be producing gas (income) from Ruvuma until 2020 thereby requiring we use precious cash reserves to pay inflated salaries which could otherwise go towards seismic at Nyuni and/or Kiliwani South it makes a big difference Fantom. Why should the BOD reward themselves for their failure to stick to their own plan of self funded field development at Ntorya, Kiliwani remediation, back-to-back drill at NT2/NT3?

You may have done Mather, I think there might be a problem with the forum because I keep seeing Drewky's post coming up too ;) Honestly I am struggling to let the salary increases go unchallenged. If we were at 5p or even 3p it would be less of an issue but 1.8p and they've massively increased salaries with no income from Ruvuma due until 2020?! That's not right at all.