RE: Risk15 Aug 2018 13:29
Hello hardnose, I would suggest that a lot of the risk is mitigated by this deal. AST will take over relations with TPDC and we are not required to find funding to cover the costs. There are, of course, always risks. If CH1 is a duster (extremely unlikely) that would be a huge issue and if a development license is not granted again this would be a huge issue - however I would suggest that it's unlikely that either of those will happen. The Zubair Corporation would not be spending even the $5m cash payment to Aminex if they didn't think a development license would be forthcoming.
The farm-out deal is binding subject to ratification by shareholders and I would very much doubt this will be voted down.
So I would suggest that most of the downside/risk is mitigated. It's possible that ARA/AST could take Aminex private but I think that's also unlikely as they can use shareholders funds to pay for drills and then come in and scoop up the prize (as they have with Ruvuma) with little risk to them and no back-costs to us and leave us a few crumbs.
So as I see it the risks are now quite low in comparison to 12 months ago, however the upside is now limited.
5.2p would value Aminex at £187m and we know that we're likely to be looking at $12m income per year from CH1, that is anticipated to rise towards FFD however you can see yourself that the annual income versus valuation even at 5.2p is high so you could either hold and hope we hit oil or that flow rates far exceed the minimum 40 scuffs, average down or cut your losses.