Member Info for TakingMyTime

@Nige_W & RtdBanker, in addition to the cash and earnings you mentioned, there's also a huge land bank. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/19/housebuilders-sitting-800000-home-land-bank-property-crisis/. If a government really gets serious about more homes and starts pushing for planning approvals to be expedited, they've got the land already.

Whatever one may think about Fairburn, he had the sense to know that acquiring land and building cash would position them well.

I'm targeting at least 2700 before I get out. If they'd been reactive rather than proactive with the bad press, I'd have bailed by now. The retention plan figures high in my thinking. It will cost some money but that, more than anything, is likely to change the narrative, especially if others don't follow suit for a while.

It's one thing to say, 'We're trying to do better.' The press can ignore that or find a story somewhere that isn't better. But when you say, 'We're doing something no one else is doing to make sure we do better than we were,' that's hard for them to ignore.

@eviking. Correct. It's just supply and demand.

US fracking has produced over 7 billion barrels of oil. In August US production passed 11 million bpd for the first time ever: https://www.energyindepth.org/monthly-u-s-crude-oil-production-tops-11-million-barrels-per-day-for-first-time-ever/.

And OPEC wants the price to be generally stable, so they'll pump enough to keep it that way. They could reduce production to push the price higher but they want the money coming in and there are political risks for them in it going too high.

They aren't going to throw Fairburn under the bus. But I expect in 6-12 months the puff pieces start to come out with Jenkinson saying things like, 'We knew we needed to change the culture of the company.'

There's been a lot of bad press, but what's happened? The exec remuneration package changed. They've made changes on leasehold BEFORE the housing minister started running his mouth. This fire safety thing just blew up in the press but they actually were aggressively pursuing it and rectifying things before the bad press hit. But the big thing is the 1.5% homebuyer's retention plan. They will always be able to say we were the first to do it, and others are following our lead.

And if you are looking to buy a new home and choosing between two, wouldn't the one that lets your solicitor hold 1.5% until snagging is done look appealing?

The retention plan costs money and so does fixing the fire safety, but the company is sitting on loads of cash. And Jenkinson seems to get it that they have to change some things, and seems also to recognise that you have to get out in front of things rather than wait until the wolves in the press are baying for blood. By the time this latest one blew they can say that they've already fixed hundreds of homes and are inspecting a lot of others. It's hard for the press to demonise you when you say that.

The company may not be quite as profitable if they are spending money on the retention plan and fixing fire safety issues, but at the current share price, they don't have to keep the same profit level, or pay quite as high dividends as they have, to be a good investment.

The share price may stagnate and even drop a little further for a while, but by the end of the year the weight of the dividends Persimmon is paying will begin to have its effect, and the share price will start to climb. That will be true even if money spent on some of these issues causes a small cut in the dividend. Persimmon is still going to show up in the lists of shares paying high dividends, and that's going to attract buyers.

80% of the Obama rules are still in effect, but some of the expensive stuff that gained little in safety is going. I don't think it's a 'major victory' but it is a plus, one more reason to hold onto BP, IMO. At this price I'm tempted to add to my holdings as well.

A big factor in the price is the expansion of Primark to America. There's a premium on the price because of the expectation that is going to be profitable. If it works, this one will take off. If it doesn't, the price is likely to drop even if the results are pretty good. I'm in because I think they'll make it work pretty well.