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gkb47 They have CE marked the Mologic antibody test for clinical use. They still need CE approval for the Mologic Antigen LFT. News on this will follow news of the TT of the Mologic Antigen test.
Seems like no coincidence that the British Bulls latest signal is a short for ODX the same day the Grodniad has another pop. I have a feeling the Trolls will be out in force today maybe a last chance to top up. Good Luck everyone, I hope we all get the present we're expecting (possibly in the Jan sales)
No idea what that's all about but I've reported as many of the "o" posts as I can see, does it matter how many others do this? Looks like a practice for an effective way to disrupt the board. Why would anyone go to all that bother...?
IlluminatiShare, 500K/week by month end, 2m/ week by end April at latest.
Surginater, you're right, on the graph that Colin talked through on the last presentation there was a commitment to produce 200K tests per week for UK-RTC. I'm not sure that ODX are limited to producing this number for UK-RTC. If the Govt. has indicated that the total amount required under the contract, ODX could potentially be fulfilling this with full production up until mid March with no need for further orders until then. No orders currently is not necessarily the disaster that some on here would have us think.
Please correct me where I am wrong
The initial order is for the UK-RTC test was £75m which at £1.50 /test is 50m tests of which ODX will manufacture no less than 25% or 12.5m. Profit will be "a bit more than " 75p per test.(at least £9.1m)
Capacity is ramping up to 500k/wk by end December and assume it's been an average of 200k tests/week since mid October; 11 weeks at average 200k tests/week or 2.2m tests produced by year end.
Assuming a generous average of 1m tests per week for the first 3 months (13 weeks)of 2021 there are only 3 weeks production to sell before we hit 2m tests per week in April. We have already sold all we can make until the second or third week in March, how many RNSs for orders can there be if we have no spare production to sell til March 2021?
I understand that the order is a "call off" order and that this means that the Govt does not necessarily require the full amount but there are no more accurate or cheaper tests available and therefore I guess that they will take them.
Thanks all, Good Luck!
Yes Lovejoy22, and we can all come dressed as Trolls in shorts and talk about the time we laughed and said the share price was going back to 6 pence or how surprised we were that people would still need tests the day after a vaccine had been produced. Sound like a plan!
# Bigjock36 (sorry!)
That's a great find BIigock36
"The test would be used in peoples homes"
(It would if MHRA get round to approving it)
Doesn't look too far away now!
It could be. £30 m pays for 20m antibody tests. There's something else that's just arrived in a denomination of 20m recently too...
Thanks Twatcher, I was guilty of why use 1 word when 500 will do. New at this.
Paulbristol, skip to the end if you're easily bored, all, please feel free to correct me.
I think any order for UK-RTC tests will positively effect share price.
By month end our capacity will be 500k tests per week with a commitment to supply UK-RTC with at least 25% of any order and a commitment to be able to supply 200K tests per week.
The finncap research accounts for an expected £2m revenue from covid tests to April 21 with £0 .4m already having been received, so if Government orders exceed this amount, that may improve share price.
From the most recent finncap company note:
"Third-party customers have already expressed an interest in the AbC-19 test, which
have the potential to sell at a higher commercial price. We estimate that Omega is
receiving c.£1.60 per test from the UK-RTC for the supply of a foil-wrapped lateral flow
device."
"Omega confirmed that it has commenced sales of Mologic’s lateral flow antibody test
(VISITECT COVID-19), which Omega CE-marked in September. The test is differentiated
from other lateral flow antibody tests in that it is able to detect IgM, IgA and IgG
antibodies and therefor potentially identify positive patients at an earlier stage than most
other antibody tests. As a professional-use rapid test, this produce is primarily destined
for export market which will sold through Omega’s international distributor network. We
expect revenues to be modest in the current financial year"
Note: "...has commenced sales..."
Our forecasts assume c.0.7m LFDs produced in H2, which includes c.250k tests from the
1m test order placed by the UK Government on the UK-RTC.
Omega indicated that it is progressing options to increase production levels to c.2m tests
per week by the end of April 2021– i.e. 100m tests per annum, which – if fully utilised –
would generate revenues in excess of c.£200m..."
I think any order from China for the Food Detective self test over the expected ramp up to £12m revenue (65-70% margin) will also be positive.
So modest revenue through international distribution (yet to be disclosed) and there is an expectation of a further 500k LFD to be ordered on top of the existing order.
Apologies for being long winded.
We're quietly confidently waiting for news of orders.
Looks like they could have benefitted from under promising and over delivering....
That's my view too prionace. I emailed Paul McManus some time ago and part of the reply to some questions I had asked reads:
"I can confirm that the LFT and ELISA production lines can be deployed for other applicable LFT / ELISA tests other than COVID such as Food Intolerance, CD$ or any other news tests Omega might develop."
My personal view is that although Food Detective has great potential and can currently earn c.£8 profit per test, Antigen and Antibody LFTs will be used in huge numbers for years to come. Omegas biggest markets for these could well be outside the UK in time.
gkb47, having served in the military for over 20 yrs I concur, if Jack thinks he's going to get in the chit for letting the vaccine thaw out or he can keep quiet about it, there's a good chance he's not going to get in the chit, it'll be the vaccines fault.
Nskno1 I agree, but I'm beginning to think the time MHRA approval for the UK-RTC antibody test is taking is linked to the approval of the AZ vaccine. I'm glad they've rolled out a vaccine and I'm glad they're being demonstrably thorough with the UK-RTC test.
What could possibly go wrong with a vaccine that comes in packs of 997 which have to all be used at the same time before they "thaw out" and consequently the vulnerable people i.e. in care homes have to be taken to the point of delivery. There's going to be more than 2 tests per person, there's going to be at least 2 antibody tests per vaccine given, and who knows how many will go wrong? Wrong temperature? Sorry, didn't work, try again. I really feel for those who are getting their hopes up and I hope I'm being overly cynical.
Looks like Trevors pullback was as magical as him.
Bomber, how's it going?
Why might we soon be "...facing a new low"? Is that what you're asking?
If so, it's because since about the 7th of October we've had a seemingly steady stream of one lot of posters appearing while the price falls, followed by a new set arriving, the previous lot falling silent and the price improving to lesser levels. Each time and in both directions, there has been incorrect information shared as fact whilst board members who have been informative and obviously well researched have been pilloried. It concerns me because it always seems to correspond with a share price move. It is possibly due to there being fewer large shareholders, the share price is more at the mercy of PIs and shorter term holders. I'm content with my investment and expect it to grow steadily over the coming years, but currently the price is seemingly easy to manipulate on false claims or misinformation by people who seem more intent on furthering their own ends than on supporting the successful development of a safe cheap reliable and accurate testing regime in support of a global vaccine. Is that what you were asking?
Twatcher, I share your concern in the nuanced language. A ramp up in production capacity does not necessitate a ramp up in orders, although, I believe that the increase to 500k capacity will eventually be required to be used by the company for one or other of their tests Covid or otherwise. I'm also concerned by the ebb and flow of this boards nature, we're currently standing in the path of a stampede, and if history is anything to go by, may well consequently shortly be facing a new low in recent sp level whilst the dementors circle again. I have seen several board stalwarts recently stop posting, I for one hope that you don't feel compelled to join them by the noise.