The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Asked if he was aware that the Scottish Govt. were issuing Innova tests when they are being made in his colleague John Nicholson's constituency. Why are we spending vast amounts of money importing inferior tests from a country with a questionable human rights record etc. etc. Might have some sort of reaction.
AB10, thanks, but it says this programme is not available in your region but you may be able to find it on STV. Which I can't. I'm guessing since the boards gone (pleasantly) quiet, I'll find out about it in about 20 mins, Good Luck!
Not available in Scotland! Does anyone know how to watch tonight if you're in the STV region and too tight to pay for satellite?
Chuggley, has anyone e-mailed or hash tagged Rt Hon. John Nicholson do you know? I'm not on twitter but I'm sure he will be and I'm sure he should be interested about how the press are treating Scottish employers in his constituency. Just a thought...
upomega, that's a beaut. I feel for the team on the receiving end of all that regulation. Puts posters whinges on here about why it's not been achieved yet into perspective. If it's delayed by a few weeks it's entirely understandable. Much better to get it right to start with than find out halfway through your second large order that there's a discrepancy in quality. Take the time to get it right first time!
Unconfirmed reports of a Photo Exclusive Splash all across the front page of tomorrows Alloa Advertiser of Bojo and Colin hot air balooning over an Alva jam factory.
djm1 I'm sure that there have been many deadlines within the company for TT that have not been met for technical reasons i.e. bits not working, breakage, inaccuracies etc. If TT was supposed to be by Christmas (optimistic) or "early in the new year," (expected) they're probably slightly delayed by unforeseen technical difficulties. From experience, there's nothing more wasteful of your time as a technician than constantly having to down tools to report to management why there are further delays. Sometimes it just takes as long as it takes, and always tell them it'll take twice to three times as long as you expect it to (it always does). Can you imagine the pressure on the TT team right now? I'm sure no-one wants it over with more than them just now.
MB, please correct me if I'm wrong:
"If I make tests weekly as follows: Sep 200k Oct 200k Nov 200k Dec 500k Jan-Mar 2m April 2m"
FinnCap note 30/11/20:
If the FinnCap note is to be believed, and there has been so far no RNS to update on any of the contents of it, than there's a capacity (in 000's) by :
end of Oct 200/wk,
end Nov 300k/wk,
end Dec 500/wk,
end Jan 600/wk,
end Feb 800/wk,
end Mar 1.7m/ wk (projected and expected)
end Apr 2m/wk (projected and expected)
"Our forecasts assume c.0.7m LFDs produced in H2, which includes c.250k tests from the
1m test order placed by the UK Government on the UK-RTC"
They got the 250k bit right. Of the estimated 450k balance they say "The balance will be used to produce VISITECT CD4, VISITECT COVID-19 and other antibody and antigen tests"
Say best case Antigen test @ £2.50 profit per test (CD4 @ £2.20 profit per test/ Mologic Antibody test @ £1.60 profit per test)
(250k x 80p) plus (450k x £2.50) is £1,325000 profit on tests expected by April 2021.
At the moment we've only made £1.5m profit at best, whenever we sell them. This makes Pi's unhappy.
By April, currently, revenue from tests will be c.£2m. Your numbers appear to be over egged by about £42 million if we only consider currently available for production Covid Tests.
However, we expect TT and CE mark very soon, so at best we'll have Feb and March production maxed out. By the time we're producing 2m tests per week (or the expected £20m profit per month in April) we'll have produced (4x800k + 4x1.7m) or 10m tests at £25m profit. Add £1.5m and Aprils £20m profit gives £46.5m
(OK £44m profit).
But wait, there's more....
What about all the other weekly capacity? 500k by December, 600k by January, 800k by February, projected 1.7m by March and the magical 2m by April? We've no reason to expect that this expansion won't happen. The FinnCap note also says...
"Omega confirmed that it has received a number of purchase orders from some of the six countries with whom the CHAI programme is currently working, with further countries expected to participate in the coming months. Omega has indicated that these orders will be supplied in H2 FY 2021. Coupled with WHO Prequalification, which was received in August, Omega remains confident that the CHAI initiative will seed the future demand that will be supported by longer-term donor programmes such as MSF and UN agencies (eg. UNDP, UNFPA, UNICEF)"
These orders will be supplied in H2, but maybe produced in H1?
Or something like 16mil. tests able to be made by end March regardless of TT and CE mark for the Mologic Antigen test.
Try his link:
https://www.clintonhealthaccess.org/closing-the-gap-a-year-of-progress-amidst-the-global-pandemic/
for the Clinton Health Access initiative and click on the "same day CD4 testing" link if you want to be cheered up even more.
GLA and DYOR
Profit-eer, I was just thinking the same thing. I can't find an itinery and the press is only interested in pushing NS's reaction to the visit. He's visiting some military who have been tasked with assisting the vaccination effort to "wave the flag" but apart from this he's got a lot of time to fill. Maybe....
Nextyearrodders, 20+ or 2+ per week? :-)
SkyMonkey, a quarter of NCYTs share price for Omegas issued shares would be a very similar Mcap to NCYT, so it's not really a ramp at all is it?
megatro, good list, can I add:
CE Mark of COVID-19 IgG ELISA Lab test to allow on site testing
Confirmation that 2m/week capability is available (expected end March)
VISITECT® CD4 Advanced Disease test review by the UNITAID-funded Expert Review Panel for Diagnostics (“ERPD”) findings (have I missed these?)
Update on Food Detective progress in PRC following 2m investment by distributers in advance of expected orders.
Non consortium sales of VISITECT® COVID-19 IgM/IgA/IgG antibody test (not expected until April unless "significant" )
So, yes, what Chuggley said but in more words.
Wagon. One G.
MIKODX "you're". Carry on.
MriGoat, hello, from the FinnCap note of 30th Nov 2020:
Profit for UK RTC test 75p per test or possibly "slightly more",
Profit for CD4 test £2.20 per test
Profit for Mologic Antigen (the Christmas present, the one we're waiting for CE mark) £2.50 per test
Profit for Mologic Antibody test £1.60 per test
Profit for Food Detective (the ones you refer to as Chinese food intolerance pills) £8 profit per test, currently expected 1m production and sales by 2023
Still waiting for the details of the "imminent" ELISA test CE marking.
Production currently 500k/wk, 600k/wk by month end, 2m/wk projected by April.
Bam pot
I find Dr JC balanced and really well researched.
From minute 4 onwards:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMSeiNqOfjg
Could this make the FDA think again about their decision on LFDs?
Bushmaster, thanks for the reply, I'm still new at this (as you can probably tell) so I try to stick to repeating the facts as they are reported from source and leave the opinions to others. It's a bit daunting to research as there's always something else you can learn or another angle you hadn't thought of that causes doubt and might affect price but it's great to know that there are real LTHs about who are confident enough to share info. Thanks again and Good Luck (I know you're sure you wont need it!)
1965Kevin, I'll have a go...
"Does anyone actually know the reason for the price ? Facts not rumours !"
I think basically the market realised that it was potentially undervalued due partly to an article in the FT which debunked the main critics and detractors of LFTs. The Facts are all in the various FinnCap notes and presentations which are freely available online. Whether some other news has been unofficially released which has caused this rise is a matter for speculation (and the regulating authorities).
I think the fact that ODX are currently providing LFTs for a government contract whilst the bidding for other similar tenders has recently closed suggests that there is a not unfounded expectation that ODX will be subject to further orders from UK Govt. which would (potentially) provide sufficient turnover to warrant a significant re-rate to the upside.
" Yes I want it to rise and hope it does but that doesn't mean it will ,I have want to win lottery and play same numbers for last 25 years and haven't won yet !"
I'm glad you realise that investing is a risk and are helping to manage other's expectations of that risk.
Samuel Johnson is credited with the quote "Gambling is a tax on the stupid" and whilst you are to be commended for your generosity in providing tax income and donations to deserving causes for the last 25 years, you are sadly trapped in a cycle of relying on your ability to place the same bet on the same numbers every week for the rest of your life or risk missing out before you win big (do you see where I'm going with this?).
FOMO is another reason this rose on a Friday.
"while we wait for this price to makes us lottery winners..."
This price will not make us lottery winners. Those who were in when it was in the teens or single digits of pence before April can only have had 10x their money back at best if they sold at the recent highs of over £1. Those who received shares at 4p from the company may have cashed in for significant sums but not compared to a lottery win.
I think that the wait for several items of significant sp changing news will soon (mid Feb latest) be over.
"...don't forget to stay safe so we are there to spend our riches as we emerge from this pandemic"
Thanks, you too, stay safe and Good Luck!
KahunaJim, nicely put, I think everyone on here who is not involved in these games knows exactly what you mean and is equally fed up with it. I agree, they should be ashamed of themselves, good luck and thanks.