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Computer909, apologies, yes 5% of 66m =3.3m x 4 tests/yr = 13.2m tests so yes, say 275k per week. Colin did say that it would be at least 25% of any UK RTC order so at least 68k tests per week. It's frustrating (along with many other things) that we don't know which if any contract is for this.
TonyRowe, you're right, it doesn't include any overseas demand which I think it is reasonable to expect there to be, otherwise Mr Grewal will have a very dull existence.
Computer909, I wouldn't be so quick to criticise the Christmas close down.
The critical path at this point was obviously Technical Transfer.
To work through this continuously there would have needed to have been coverage from Omega tech transfer team, Mologic Tech transfer team and probably manufacturer support.
If either of the latter were unavailable then the first thing that required their assistance would have halted progress until after they were both back after the holidays, however, if the time had been promised them then their wages would have been paid regardless at presumably higher than normal rates.
Rather than having little drive, I think CK is being tighter than a drum with our placing cash, a quality which although inconvenient, is hardly a terrible thing.
silles, yes, many people know. The info is in the finnCap note of 30th Nov 2020. To summarise :
Profit per UK RTC antibody : 75p
Profit per Mologic Antigen :£2.50
Profit per Mologic Antibody (branded under our visitec label, same test as UK RTC) : £1.60
Profit per Visitec CD 4 advanced disease : £2.20
I'm sure I read that the govt intention was to test 5-10% of the population every 3 months to monitor long term antibody response. A quick rough estimate of numbers of tests required for this is 200k per week (familiar number?). I don't know if these tests will be required to be quantitative rather than qualitative like the UK RTC antibody LFT .
Does this answer your question?
Nobbyboy1, link doesn't work, it says the page does not exist. Some would say that is in keeping with our PR :-)
DOOM2,
I've had a sift through, it's on his vlog of 1st Jan "Vaccines, one shot or two?" from minute 12.30 onwards.
Doom2,
I think there's a clinical trial report that outlined testing of vaccinated people who went on to contract Covid 19 (submitted as part of the MHRA approval process) and covered by DR David Campbell on YT. The jist of it is that of the something like 1,000 people who became infected after vaccination, none needed hospitalisation, so they reckoned that even though the vaccines don't give 100% protection, they do provide 100% protection against serious illness. I don't know how many of the sample were elderly and/or had existing underlying health conditions/complications. I think the intention is to test something like 5-10% of the vaccinated population periodically for antibodies over an extended period, but I'm no expert (some on this board actually are )
Apologies in advance to anyone if I've got this wrong, happy to be corrected,
GLA!
(opinion should have read "hold")
Nextyearrodders, I thought we'd get confirmation of Tech Transfer first and possibly confirmation of the increase in capacity to 500k/week before news about the CE mark. I expect that if we are the subject of a government tender it will be shrouded in mystery in the same way that other orders for our products appear to be. Monday represents 1 working week since Omegas return from the Christmas break so I expect any orders which have been placed since Dec 24th to be RNS'd by then, as well as any other price sensitive developments which may have happened during this period.
Spacetec, it's a really odd situation isn't it? My mum, also over 80 got a survey through the door(no vaccine yet) from the ONS asking if she'd take a an initial interview (done in her house with her, in tier 4!) then take one test every week for the next month, £50 to start then £25 for each of the 5 following visits. They were going to be lateral flow nasal/throat swabs (possibly Mologics?) I know of about ten others that have had the same letter. It looks like they're just going to test at random rather than roll out post vaccine testing. Which will be fine until people who have had the vaccine start contracting Covid. They are using early vaccine rollout as a data gathering exercise but probably don't have the resources to provide full post vaccine antibody testing. Also, they'll be vaccinating people who've already got antibodies if they don't test first. Presumably (!) they have tested to check this is safe. Hope your dad is safe, have a good new year when it comes!
johnboi1968 , I wont be a millionaire if it reaches 16p either.(Wrong board mate) Have a good one when it comes!
Bullseyeaim, maybe to you silles does sound like a mug, but, his post at 12:17 on Christmas Eve is legendary and for that silles I salute you! All the best for 2021 everyone!
Ekxoc, yes, I think Dr John Campbell mentioned a few days ago on his YT update that the Pfizer vaccine runs out soon and there won't be more until March . He also reckons 1m/week rollout of AZ vaccine. I'm afraid he's my only source on this so far.
EkXoc , from FT online :
Donato Paolo Mancini in Rome and Sarah Neville and Sebastian Payne in London 8 HOURS AGO
"The UK has placed forward orders for a total of 357m doses of coronavirus vaccine from a variety of companies. Several have yet to complete late-stage trials."
Health secretary Matt Han**** said the vaccine roll out would begin on January 4, with preparations made for its delivery in the coming days.
“We’ve got enough of this vaccine (AZ) on order to vaccinate the whole population,” he told the BBC, adding the 100m doses the UK has purchased would cover the entire adult population.
Second last para : "The company will provide manufacturing capacity for up to 25% of the consortium’s needs."
Sure it's AT LEAST 25% now, I think this was either in an RNS or a presentation, happy to be corrected.
Starbright, hello! How would you value ODX? Do you think the current price under or over values or is accurate? What do you see as the most significant realistic risks to the share price and in your opinion are they already factored in? I've got 25 years less experience in this than you.
Mars1, yes, possibly the market is expecting testing to end with the end of UK vaccine rollout, like you say, short sighted. Considering the international links ODX have I think there will be a demand for these tests for a long while yet, and certainly beyond the point that the UK has been vaccinated, sadly.
I have tried to calculate Mcap this way too (I think I first saw MB's calculations a while back) but again, only using annualised numbers can't really give an accurate value and perhaps the market is wary of what will happen once Covid testing is in decline and the company is left with unused lateral flow machines and an increased workforce? That's a while off too and only if the Food detective doesn't take off (I think it will and a lot more than finnCap would like to admit). I'm also made confident about the longer term by the financial position. Historically they've shown that they're quite capable of ramping to improve share price for a placing/cash raise (am I being cynical?) At current cash levels I don't think they need to do this and if they do, for after April, it will surely be only if orders which necessitate increased capacity have been made (or are expected), the company being highly cash generative by that point from CE marked antigen test production, all going to plan.
Mars1, thanks for sharing your figures. I see you're using 80p as being "a bit more than..." 75p for the antibody test to quote Colin and using £2 profit for the antigen, however, I thought it was £2.50 profit per unit for the antigen (finnCap note of 30th Nov). I agree that it's prudent to use P/e of 3 for a microcap company rather than the 9 or upwards that have been mentioned on here (admittedly by more learned members than me.)
From the latest FinnCap note:
Capacity is flexible between tests.
Expected production capacity end December : 500k /week
Commitment to UK RTC test :200k/week
Profit per UK RTC Test (at least) : 75p/test
Profit per Mologic Antibody test :£1.60/test
Profit per Mologic Antigen test : £2.50/test
Increase in Capacity is fully funded to achieve 2m/week expected by end April 2021.
As well as Covid tests, Omega produce Visitec CD4 tests (£2.20 profit per test) and Food Detective tests (£8 profit per test, estimated Chinese market demand increasing to 1.5m tests in 2023)
Apologies if I've got any of this wrong, hope you all had a peaceful time over Christmas, I hope this helps.
I just wanted to say a massive thanks to all the informative posters on here - there really are too many to mention. I have learned about this stock by following your examples and I've learned more about shorts and runs and when to spot them and how to ignore the noise and hold tight. You may not realise the impact you have had on new pi's like me but it has been humbling the time and effort that many of you have taken this year to help others less well informed or experienced than yourselves. I salute you all! Merry Christmas ODX and a Happy and prosperous New Year! Slainte!
https://www.britishbulls.com/m/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=ODX.L
:'(