Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
upomega, I agree, finnCap reckon without Covid the company are worth £75m-£125m. Even 10p a test is nearly another £1m profit a month, probably until the food detective takes off (1m units p.a.) in China, by their reckoning 2023.
TWatcher, thanks for letting me know what you think I need to do. If the device has been CE marked, Omega can produce it. TT describes the process up to and including commercialisation, so, you're right, they haven't launched it yet and they haven't confirmed what numbers that they can produce it in yet, and most importantly they haven't announced any orders yet.
So, and I think I've mentioned this before, TT happened when CE mark was RNS'd and if the statement "...we will be producing 2m tests per week in April.." was correct we could have several million Antigen and Antibody tests produced and waiting to be rolled out. Makes more sense that 140 staff have been doing this than that they've been doing whatever else staff would be doing while there was nothing to be getting on with whilst keeping deathly silent about everything, no? GLA
KahunaJim, in the land of Omega Diagnostics, home of the Greater Crested King and Bigus Jockus informus. Over a bit to the West. The pubs haven't thawed out here yet.
KahunaJim, well Jell (!) , 26th April is day zero here, I expect there will be something else substantial to celebrate by the end of that week if not before!
KahunaJim, it's always good to see your contributions, I agree about it being fascinating and the beer tokens! GLA
Three Craws are for FannyBaws
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ckhyx9QCMpo
gkb47, yes, I agree £25m to £187m profit on that contract, going by the figures Colin mentioned previously for the Mologic Antigen test.
gkb47, thanks, I got the two contracts confused. So if the Antigen order is for £50m of Mologic antigen tests for example, that's 10m tests for ODX to manufacture and £25m profit.
Porky9, I'll try but my understanding might be incorrect and I'm happy to be corrected.
The value of the contract was £50m - £374m for a non specified number of tests.
I understand those to be Antibody tests.
The Antibody tests are allocated 25% to each RTC partner, ODX producing a minimum of 25% of the order, profits are taken per test by the manufacturer (ODX minimum of 75p per test)
If this is the case then the number of tests will be split between the UK-RTC with Omega providing not less than 25% of the total number. Worst case scenario is that each test is retailed at £1.50, margin of 75p to the manufacturer. (figures from finnCap note of Nov30 2020, Colin has since mentioned the margin is slightly higher)
The minimum number of tests ordered is £50m divided by £1.50 per test gives 33.334m tests divided equally by 4 RTC members (pessimistic for Omega but a possible minimum) or 8.333m tests at 75p profit per test (again pessimistic but the only precise value ever given) or £6.25m profit (absolute minimum). I don't know if the govt. can switch out of this contract, I don't think they can, hence the minimum value.
For SP valuation, finnCap value the company at between 75p and £1.25 per share without the Covid part of the business.
On the Covid part : "Omega indicated that it is progressing options to increase production levels to c.2m tests per week by the end of April 2021–ie. 100m tests per annum, which–if fully utilised –would generate revenues in excess of c.£200m."
I don't think any numbers have been mentioned about the Mologic antigen test since the October statement in which Colin mentions £2.50 profit per test to ODX.(presumably regardless of royalties.)
We're waiting for an order for Mologic Antigen tests, we have a CE mark for their production which, by definition I think means we have completed Tech Transfer (not SP sensitive until there are orders)
Apologies if I've got this wrong, happy to be corrected by all,
Good Luck!
You tried Trickmatters, you tried...
Think Mr Tan might be off with him.
I'll definitely be having one as soon as I can. I'm in a clinically vulnerable category but wont be getting the vaccine for a while yet, I'd like to know if I've had it or not. As I'm also a key worker I've been at work as normal for the past year and have at times been terrified by the prospect of catching it from co-workers in our workplace. Knowing if I've got antibodies or not will allow me to continue to be terrified until vaccination or allow me to stop worrying about ending up on a ventilator. This is great news I think for a great number of people, Well done ODX!
mrbrown, "Not one sale yet". Was that comment meant for ODXs board? Maybe "not one sale of an Antigen test announced yet" would be more accurate, and congruent with TT and CE/UKCA mark having not been announced yet, or promised by the CEO by a specific date. Or don't you think that this is going to happen between now and the end of Covid?
Many thanks BigJock
Khizar, the finnCap note of feb 11th refers to "Covid related" revenues of £1.5m for end March 2021 (estimated) down from £1.7m (previous estimate).
megatro, £2.50 is the profit for a Mologic antigen test which sold for £5.00 (50% margin)
WelshBermuda,
Found this too, I don't know how relevant it is
"Potential pitfalls
EMI provides generous tax and NIC reliefs for qualifying options. However, there are a number of disqualifying events which will limit these reliefs. Disqualifying events include:
The company coming under the control of another company
The company ceasing to meet the trading activities test
The employee ceasing to be an eligible employee
A significant variation in the terms of the option
A non-commercial alteration to the share capital of the company that increases the value of shares under option."
If the 4 board members are no longer committing 75% of their working time to the company, they have to sell.
Is the loan agreement a non-commercial alteration to the share capital of the company which increases the value of the shares?
We'll probably never know.
I think the argument that they're selling because they know the share price is doomed is countered if they have had to sell for any of the above reasons, what's to say they won't buy back in lower quite soon anyway?
"If the option is exercised within 90 days of a disqualifying event, full income tax and NIC benefits are maintained. If the option is exercised more than 90 days after a disqualifying event then relief is only given up to the date of the disqualifying event"
So possibly, the machinery was loaned 90 days ago? Like just before the end of November presentation when TT team was mentioned and some other funding from somewhere?
Or, and again I'm no expert, is the company "coming under the control of another company"? Might explain the late trades.
Regardless, none of this is worth falling out about. Good luck!
WB, found this about EMI options on an accountants website.
"When the option is exercised, the employing company is entitled to claim a corporation tax deduction, as a trading expense, for the difference between the market value of the shares at the date of exercise less the exercise price paid. If exercise takes place at a time when the company is about to be sold to a third party purchaser, the corporation tax deduction and hence saving may be significant. In some cases the vendor shareholders will seek to retain the benefit of the corporation tax saving by negotiation with the purchaser;"
Not sure if it's relevant but on Friday between Bill Rhodes, Jag Grewal, Kieron Harbison and Jeremy Millard over 1.5m options were exercised and the subsequent shares were sold. They now hold less than this number between them.
Good that Colin didn't sell, surprised that the rest all did at the same time. Glad that Jeremy, Jag and Kieron all still hold significant positions.
As I posted on 5th Feb, I e-mailed my (SNP) MP and have now been replied to....
I hope you are well.
I notice today that the Scottish government is issuing testing kits
over the next few weeks to all staff currently in a patient-facing role
within NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde hospitals and in COVID-19
Assessment Centres as per current Scottish Government criteria.
Are you aware that these are the largely discredited tests produced by
U.S. company Innova imported at great cost from of all places China?
They were the focus of a TV programme on ITV last night "tonight" shown
on STV at 10:45
Are you also aware that currently in Scotland Lateral Flow Covid Tests
are being produced in commercial quantities to test for Covid
Antibodies ? The company in question is Omega Diagnostics, operating
from your colleague John Nicholson's constituency of Ochil and
Perthshire.
Currently they are in the final stages of achieving CE mark for their
rapid antigen test (which does the same as the Innova test mentioned
above but to a MHRA assessed much higher accuracy)
They have yet to receive a significant order from government, Scottish
or otherwise.
Can you explain the procurement decision to import inferior tests from
a regime with an at best questionable human rights record, when the
tests are being made domestically, more cheaply and by a company which
appears to have been overlooked entirely by the Scottish government?
REPLY:
.... has asked me to thank you for your email and for awaiting a response at this exceptionally busy time. He has raised this with the Scottish Government and will get back to you as soon as he’s had a response.
If he can be of any further assistance in the meantime please don’t hesitate to get in touch.
Might come to nothing