Member Info for Takenorisk

IKO have held at least 7% for around 4 years.
They have, since Dec 31st 2019, increased that steadily to the LAST DECLARED holding on 10th March (reported 12th March) of 14.77%
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SHI/holdings-in-company-x6dyg5zb1awg315.html

Prior to November 2016
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/sig-SHI/share-news/SIG-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/72916946

In which case IKO would basically signal that after January 14th (date bought at 94p) they will possibly make a full bid which would in the meantime artificially inflate the share price (Wouldnt that be great!!).

Maybe they would/ have purchase the necessary shares to take them to around the 29.99% level and declare that they have no intention to make a bid but that would only preclude them from buying more shares for 6 months!!

I would have thought that there is a possibility that a stake is being built through II's which will be revealed via RNS in the morning that "may or may not" lead to a bid.

As previously mentioned I would not be surprised if that was the case if its Kingfisher. But thats obviously conjecture and purely my own opinion not based on fact or rumours.

This time tomorrow we will all know a little bit more and hopefully (on paper at least) be a little bit richer!!

All very exciting!!

Remember that IKO cannot put in a bid for less than 94p a share which is the highest they have paid for the shares on the lst 12 months (Rule 9).

Therefore it would be a miracle if IKO were to bid in the near future!!!

Sorry to contradict you spoon but I own a ceiling and partitioning company and my main 3 suppliers are CCF, SIG and GO Interiors.
After speaking to Managers and staff at all 3 suppliers several times over the last couple of weeks, there are still at least half the staff furloughed and they are all operating at the moment at around 40-50% of "normal" capacity which is steadily rising.
The deliveries to site are brisk but the walk up trade counter business is severely hampered by the fact that customers have to book a time spot.
This is the same with all 3 companies, and \I would imagine is representative of what is going on nationwide.
Also I can 100% categorically assure you that prices have not gone up due to demand!!! The only prices that have gone up are the ones that were notified pre covid by the manufacturers. I have got invoices in front of me now from SIG for 16 different products delivered to site on Friday which can prove that.

Fantastic input on this board (albeit over my head!!) of all the technicalities of not only Interferon and the medical side of SNG's product but the "theories" as to why the shareprice has been depressed for over 2 months now.
However there seems to be one very important topic that has not been discussed yet which is remarkably pertinent, that of the cost of Synairgens strategy to carry out and complete the tests, develop how to administer it and build up stocks in anticipation of positive results.
Will the proceeds of the placing cover these hefty costs or indeed as slightly hinted at will significant further funds be required to continue??
Could this be what is holding back the price??
Thoughts please?

#notnow20
"there is no other treatment like this at this stage currently in trials"
And there lies the enigma!!
We all know that over the past 4 months since announcement of trials the share price has risen substantially but on the possibility of success and the implications the price is not close to what it should be and I still fail to comprehend why there have been so many major holders who have "reduced" holdings with the potential SNG has.
We all know from the share placing that the Directors dont view us PI's as priority but what do those selling Institutions and individuals know that we dont??

This mornings RNS's told us nothing that wasnt factored into the current low 50's shareprice apart from once again the date of initial results has been moved back again to July.
But with the press coverage I am sure that I am not on my own in thinking that this alone should have seen the shares sustaining a reasonable gain this morning...but no??
We know that there are institutional sellers in the background and the usual market makers playing games along with low volumes etc but with the prospects and current hype in this sector over the past few months surely this share should be much much higher than it is at the moment....and be able to sustain it.
I am still holding at average of around the 52p mark so aint losing and will hold till results are revealed knowing that I will either gain or lose substantially!
Any thoughts on why price is so subdued??

Although construction as a whole MIGHT have increased by 40%, the vast majority of that would have been rail and roads which would not benefit SIG.

Simple message, behave and keep it civil please.

Think that your 50% figure is very optimistic.
From my finger in the wind poll based on being a contractor the figure at the moment is probably around 30% and rising slowly.
There are still plenty of sites that remain closed with the remainder operating at a fraction of capacity that they were pre Covid.
Also trade counters for walk up contractors are severely restricted and in general pick ups are allocated 30 minute slots.
Even with construction being the fulcrum of any economic recovery it will still be many months before the industry is running anywhere near to its former glories.
Also it has to be remembered that there is also possible significant bad debts from defaults from SHI's many account holders.
However the above will have been factored into the current share price, thats why it is languishing in the 20's!! But the potential for recovery (and possible bid) is why SIG is such an attractive proposition over the next few months!
Dont forget though, like with any other shares, there is no such thing as a certainty and on any hint of impending bad news this and any other share price could plummet!
All in my opinion of course!

Perhaps there will be a slowdown on the retail side once the lockdowns are relaxed and less DIY work is being carried out which in turn may affect Kingfishers B&Q arm (Screwfix should not be affected as it is small trade and retail!).

The main boom unquestionably will be in Commercial Building materials of which Kingfisher at the moment has no involvement. Sheffield Insulation is obviously a player in that sector (as is CCF for Travis Perkins).

With SIG's excellent cash position an initial bid valuing them at £300-£350 million (50p-ish per share) would surely make remarkable commercial sense???

Once again to repeat my caveat that the above is purely in my opinion and is not intended to ramp!!

It appears that stakebuilding is POSSIBLY taking place through third party institutions. JPM, Goldman Sachs and Aberforth hold just under 19% of SIG's shares, all of which have been acquired since 31st December 2019

Although this time last year £2 a share might have been the bid price, with the shareprice at the moment standing at 25p it is highly unlikely at the moment that anyone would bid 4 X that price unless something extraordinary occurs!!

The next bit is my gut feeling and in no way an attempt to ramp the price!!

I would be surprised if a bid didnt come in before autumn at around the 50-60p a share mark and, here is one for you, that bidder to be Kingfisher. Reason for suggesting Kingfisher is that it would give them a wholesale arm to make them all round competitors to Travis Perkins.

Just for clarity, my position with SIG is that I have got a 60% of my portfolio invested at an average of around 22p per share with the intention of holding for around 12 months to make a very substantial gain!! If a bid does not come in over the next few months (as I expect) I will be delighted as if SIG can hang out till next year £1+ a share is more than realistic!

IKO Building and declaring 29.9% would show a huge statement of intent but surely would only make ultimate purchase considerably more expensive??
Would be more credible if another predator was accumulating at the moment and within 45-50p price range (100%ish premium on current price) taking everything into account would be a rather attractive purchase!!
Thoughts??

2 reincarnated, it would be extremely unlikely that IKO would bid the 94p a share required for a full bid with the share price sub 30p at the moment. As previously stated this does not obviously rule out any other potential bidder.
I would be very surprised if JPM are not stakebuilding for another unknown predator at this price and would be bloody delighted if there is an announcement to this effect next week!

Because IKO are in the background, at the current levels this is a good solid 12 months or so investment!
Getting the bad news about the abortive sale out of the way is a big plus!
Next week IMHO price could be anything between 20p and 30p!!
Anything below 22p I will be topping up heavily!
If there are no more economic or Covid related disasters between now and spring next year I would be upset if the price is anything under the 70p mark!

Dont honestly think that the price on Thursday will make any of us rich (just yet!!)
The profits from last year which will officially be revealed, have already been stated so the main movement will be from trading update which HOPEFULLY should be encouraging albeit realistically not earth shattering.
Its very doubtful that there will be any news on the bid front from IKO as any bid would have to be at around the 94p mark to satisfy a Rule 9 offer:- "The bidder must make a mandatory offer in cash at no less than the highest price paid during the preceding 12 months". This price was paid on 9th January so dont expect a full bid from IKO for the next 7 months!!
That obviously does not preclude an alternative predator!!
Lets keep fingers crossed!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MMC/holdings-in-company-9fp9rkyll9pqj72.html

Although replies to my original post conflict as to whether or nor SNG is part of ACCORD, and I admit to not knowing enough technically about SNG001, the comments below indicate strong possibility that SYNAIRGEN are indeed part of the program.
(source https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/covid-19-uk-accord/ )

"Initially, six drugs have been chosen to be studied on the platform; these include both novel compounds and those being repurposed from other conditions. The Phase II, adaptive clinical trial platform has been provided by clinical research company IQVIA as it facilitates the conduct of multiple studies from different sponsors.

The government has only publicly declared the name of one the six therapies – BerGenBio’s investigational drug bemcentinib. However, AstraZeneca noted in a press release that two of its molecules are being explored: its Bruton’s tyrosine kinase inhibitor approved for blood cancers, Calquence, and an interleukin 33 drug candidate being studied in Phase II for another indication"

Further thoughts??

Is SYNAIRGEN one of these 6 companies mentioned by the Business Secretary during todays press briefing?
If not is there any reason why not and what does that mean for the prospects of SNG001 being successful?