Member Info for SylviaBrowne

I think one way to obtain more information is to wait until the next visit of Mali Officials in the mine. If the motive was coup-related then there is bound to be another incident when the Government will interact with the mine in the future. Now off to assess whether this risk could justify, as a weight, the valuation of the share price done by Steve when he decided to offload shares at a price of 0.24 based on the RNS of few months ago.

Now that a day has passed after hearing the horrible news from the RNS yesterday relating to the attack on the mine and the unfortunate death of a security employee, can we please try to understand the motivation behind the attack? Needless to say, there is clearly a motive because the assailants would have been aware that there was security on the mine, and they wouldn't risk an attack unless they wanted something. They most likely wanted to take control of the mine, but the real question is "Why?". There are various theories, and happy to hear more, as I am not sure how the attack can be explained.

1) The assailants wanted to take control of the mine to salvage equipment/vehicles that they could later sell at a black market. This seems viable, in the sense, that there would definitely be stuff with high worth around. However, would they really want to risk their lives for this?

2) The assailants wanted to take control of the mine to damage it in order to cause financial injury to the Mali Government, given the recent attempts of a coup since last May. The mine is going to be a source of income for the Mali Government once the export permit is issued (possibly after 1st Jan 2026) so damaging it would indirectly damage the Government.

3) The assailants attacked to obtain information about the security measures in order to orchestrate another attack at a visit of Mali Officials. Given that, in their mind, they have already "succeeded" by causing a fatality, they would now have the confidence to attack again if any official would visit the mine. I am afraid that this uncertainty of security would cause further delays.

4) There were theories mentioned here yesterday that the MG or Hainan could be behind such an attack to force KOD out, but I do not believe this since both MG and Hainan can already achieve such a thing (if they ever wish to do so), so there wouldn't be any need for a direct attack. For instance, by having Hainan exercise their legal right to make Kodal liable for the US $15 Million payment.

What are your thoughts? Can you think of any other reason why this attack happened? It surely cannot be random.

I really need to reassess the risk of Mali as a weight on my estimate of a fair share price for KOD. I didn't take it into consideration so far, because I believed that it was already ingrained in the share price given that everybody is aware of the geopolitical risk of the country. However, I never expected a direct attack on the mine to be honest, even though I expected instability in the country. Could Steve have already considered the risk factor when he sold at 0.24 based on the RNS? He surely knows Mali better than us having been there, and worked there, many times.

Below is the link to the article which hasn't been pulled, so you are the one spreading false information. I, however, am not going to report you because you are not even worth that. I will not be responding again, in honour of the memory of the person lost in the security incident. Here is the link:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kodal-says-mali-lithium-exports-blocked-due-permit-delays-2025-05-15/

To add to this, as I got carri the political tensions and the coup attempt were also heightened at the month of May.

Well Chef, I guess there are also vehicles and other equipment that could be sold at a black market? Though I am completely not informed on the merit of this, not my topic at all.

Actually, on second thought there are benefits to the Mali Government from this security incident. They can use it as an excuse to delay the export permit until at least 1st Jan 2026 and further negotiate the floor price with Hainan. Though again, they already had the power to delay it anyway I believe.

Roger - Hainan can always force out Kodal by exercising their legal right to request KOD to pay for the 15 Million tax payment, an amount of money that Kodal does not possess, so I do not see any reason for them to resort to such a technique. I am unable to comment for Mali Government though.

Lelelele - Yes, until a larger group of people arrive to attack Bougouni, especially now that they have knowledge of the security measures and might have discovered potential weaknesses from their first attack.

Do you think there are attempts to take control of the mine by the people who attacked it last Friday?

Security incident and death at mine...

This is to investigate the relationship between Kodal Minerals, Hainan Mining, and the Mali government based on the RNS released in the past year and the Reuters article of May 15, 2025 titled "Kodal says Mali lithium exports blocked due to permit delays". We specifically observe the behaviour and responses of people with insider information, such as directors, or major shareholders.

Kodal and Hainan:

Based on the RNS of 5 Nov 2024, which discusses the disagreement related to who is liable for the US$15 million payment between KOD and Hainan, it is clear that the relationship between the two partners is strained. It is in fact surprising that such a disagreement was communicated publicly, rather than solved in private. This disagreement also provides insights into what a potential hostile takeover of KOD from Hainan would look like for anyone familiar with corporate raiding. For example, Hainan could exercise its legal right to request the tax payment of US$15 million payment from KOD, which KOD cannot afford, thus opening up the opportunity to do a hostile takeover of KMUK.

Hainan and the Mali Government:

I believe that intense negotiations are being conducted at the moment between Hainan and MG for a floor price. It is of benefit for the profits of the Mali Government to have issued a floor price before the export and sale of any lithium. Given the RNS of 30 June 2025, which states that a floor price will be issued after 1st Jan 2026, I do not believe we will see an export permit until then, because it is of no benefit to the MG.

Reuters article, Steve, and Suay Chin:

Reuters is a reputable news publisher so the article of May 15, 2025 which stated that the export permit is blocked was quite surprising. Initially, I did not take it seriously but I am now considering that there might be some validity based on the RNS following that date. Specifically, it is of value to observe how directors and major shareholders have behaved after 15th May. First, we observe based on the three RNS of 22nd Jan, 9th Jun, 19th Aug, that Suay Chin, a major shareholder has decided to offload shares at an increased speed of 2.5x between the period Jun-Aug. In addition, based on the RNS of 3rd Jul, we observe that Steve a director of KOD (who will soon be employed at Castle Minerals) decided to sell shares at a point in time where the share price was approximately 0.24. Both of these responses indicate a loss of confidence on the stock, or more precisely that the stock is currently overvalued and that the export permit is not going to lead to a price increase.

Given the above, the question I have is: If Steve, who has insider knowledge of the stock, decided that 0.24 is a fair value to make a profit right before the expected issue of an export permit, who are we to disagree with that assessment?

Bfd, it is sad that you are so fragile you have to resort to reporting. You could filter me out. I have substantiated all my arguments with information from RNS or links. I will not be responding to you anymore, other than stating that January, June, and August RNSs are three data points, not two as you mentioned earlier.

Hi Acores. Steve Z and Mohammed N are moving to Castle Minerals. You can google it, or see below:

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/cdt/castle-minerals/news/cote-d-ivoire-expansion-presentation-3230041.html

Grantie, I can assure you that nobody is buying. There is a bank holiday weekend ahead which means that the next trading is Tuesday. At the moment, a major shareholder is selling at an accelerated rate of 2.5x and two board members are leaving for Castle Minerals. The uncertainty is too high to consider buying.

Bfd, I apologize for finding the sentences and grammar very confusing, making it difficult for me to respond. I hope your portfolio of investments is formed on more clear arguments.

Two things can be important, but one can be more important than the other. The sales of Suay Chin are perfectly quantifiable, they sold 1% in 5 months, followed by 1% in 2 months. They want out faster.

Yes, Grantie, good job coming to advertise Castle Minerals on this forum, at a moment where the share price is crashing. A true vulture.

Bfd, the news are now all over the internet, a simple google search brings them up. However, the credit goes to GeorgeH, who found the important information first, allowing a member of this forum to make an investment decision fast, which you can guess what it is from the share price today. In any case, the situation with Steve ranks lower than having SC, a major shareholder, selling at least 2.5x faster.

Craignews - If one is guided by common sense, they can realise that if the price drop of lithium drops tomorrow to 600, then it would be much more beneficial and profitable for the Mali Government to have set a floor price of 700 for example. I cannot believe we are discussing such simple things.

Hi Grantie,

Thank you for the comments, even if they are sarcastic. Life, and finance, have the mystery and plot twists of a reality show so this should not come as a surprise to you.

I would prefer not to comment on what you ask, even though I have expressed already an opinion on the permit. Specifically, I do not believe than an export permit will be granted until 1st January 2026 since it is of no benefit for the Mali government to issue one without a floor price (see recent RNS where it is stated that a floor price will be valid from 1st Jan 2026). If the MG would issue one now without a floor price they are at a risk for loss of money, so they won't do it until January.

P.S. Thank you for the offer but I'll pass, because I doubt you could afford me. Have a nice day.