Member Info for sworaf

@Nappers. If you read my post, the precise number of shares was to round up my holdings. Let’s see what tomorrow morning brings.

If you're wondering about that 1.33 UT print, blame me! I could buy at 1.20 but I tried to get slightly better. I threw in a large limit order for 2,144,118 shares at 1.18 right before the close to round up my holdings.Since it was over double the normal market size, it most likely broke the auction book mechanics and artificially spiked the closing price. My order didn't execute, so it was a phantom spike. Things should return to normal at 1.15–1.20 at tomorrow's open.

If you’re looking at Level 2, you've probably noticed market makers doubled their quote size from 500,000 to 1,000,000 shares.

This happened following the MoD transparency notice, trading volume exploded to an unprecedented 117.5M+ shares. Market makers forced deeper order book sizes to absorb this massive influx of volume without letting the price gap uncontrollably.

The so what: This 1,000,000 block is serving dual purposes right now. First, a specific market maker is likely working a massive institutional order behind the scenes. Second, because it's sitting firmly on the bid, an institutional player could actively absorb incoming sell orders to build a net long position.

In my view, this is an institutional player because the 1M size constantly refreshes even when millions of retail shares are aggressively dumped into it, establishing a definitive and highly structured price floor. The next few days and weeks could be very interesting indeed.

Defence Holdings stands to benefit materially from the anticipated £18 billion increase in UK defence spending expected to be announced this week. The reason is that the company is structurally positioned to capture part of this investment. Namely, its operating model is aligned with government procurement priorities, and its technological focus places it in a strong competitive position for upcoming capability programmes.

I also believe, as others here have suggested, that the recent silence from the company is linked to the Labour government’s delay in formally announcing the spending uplift. Once that confirmation is issued, the market will have clearer visibility, and the share price is likely to show a meaningful appreciation.

I can see someone is trying to buy 1,696,472 shares at 1.335. Surely, after the announcement of the new CEO - this won't be met...

Large spread so far this morning. 1.45 - 1.60.

Clover’s appointment confirms that Defence Holdings is doubling down on being a serious, mission-aligned defence tech player, not a generic software company. Therefore, its new CEO must be the embodiment of that dual identity: a trusted defence insider who can also run a cutting-edge tech company. They are likely looking for a leader similar to those at companies like Palantir (US), Anduril (US), or Praesidium (UK) in profile, albeit at a different scale.

Looking at the appointment of Jim Clover as an advisor, it seems logical that the new CEO will bring even more clout to ALRT. Most people would have settled for someone with Mr Clover’s experience as CEO… Some big reputations on board with, what is likely, the biggest yet to be revealed.

Expecting the recommencement of trading announcement imminently.

Awaiting approval by FCA. The rules are that shares will resume normal trading on the day after the FCA approves its application for re-admission. Could possibly trade as early as tomorrow morning if approval was given on Friday, 31 October and gets RNS’d at 0700 hrs tomorrow. My thoughts 30% chance tomorrow and 60% chance on Tuesday with 10% chance after Tuesday.

The announcement indicates the company is successfully using the ATM facility to raise capital without severely disrupting the share price. However, we should consider the following implications:

1. Purpose is Working Capital: The primary reason for the ATM is to provide "additional working capital". This is consistent with the company's financials, which show it is not yet profitable and is in a growth and investment phase.

2. Share Dilution is Confirmed: The announcement confirms that shares were sold into the market, leading to a decrease in the lead broker's holding from 6.08% to 5.73%. This directly results in dilution for existing shareholders. This follows a larger dilution event in early October when 69.8 million new shares were issued from warrant exercises.

3. Potential for Future Dilution: An ATM facility is a rolling tool. The company can continue to issue and sell new shares from this facility in the future, which means the potential for further dilution remains.

Important Company & Market Context

1. High Institutional Ownership: A significant 62% of the company is owned by institutions. This means the stock's price can be sensitive to the trading decisions of these large players.

2. Regulatory Status: The company is listed in the "Equity Shares (Transition)" category, which offers a lower level of regulatory protection than a standard "Commercial Companies" listing. Some brokers have even restricted trading in the stock due to this classification.

The company is in a pivotal phase, actively investing in its future. The use of the ATM facility is a double-edged sword:

Bull vs Bear case:

The Bull Case: If the raised capital is successfully used to secure major contracts and accelerate the development of its AI defence products, the current dilution could be justified by much higher future revenues and a significantly higher valuation.

The Bear Case: If the company continues to burn cash without converting its pipeline into firm, revenue-generating contracts, the ongoing dilution will weigh heavily on the share price and erode investor confidence.

I have taken a position here and we'll see how it pans out.

It’s full of strict, non-negotiable rules that neither Sidara nor Wood can control. For example, the deal depends on Wood's financial accounts being finalised and approved without any problems, and on its debt restructuring being completed successfully.

To emphasise this, a key regulator has even agreed that these rules are so strict that Sidara can walk away for almost any reason, no matter how small. If any one of these conditions isn't met perfectly, the entire deal is off.

The BOD have run this once great company to the ground. It’s clear now Wood is in such bad shape, its directors have agreed that this shaky offer is still the best option available. They believe the alternative would be so bad that we could end up with nothing. But despite their recommendation, there's a very real chance this takeover might not actually happen.

FRES has been one of my star performers in my portfolio. Share price has shot up recently because the company is making a lot more money. This is thanks to higher prices for silver and gold and because the company is running its operations more efficiently.

This good momentum should continue for a couple of key reasons. First, the demand for silver (especially from fast-growing industries like solar panel manufacturing) remains very strong. Second, it is expected profits will keep growing significantly over the next few years, which is a very positive sign for its future stock price. Essentially, the company's strong results and a favorable market are expected to keep pushing the share price higher.

To see Avacta’s recent share price surge driven by encouraging clinical progress and strategic financial moves like the recent convertible bond amendments! It’s been a long slog.

I have analysed yesterday’s RNS in one paragraph. Why the offer is so low and the stark realities of it not going through. That said, for what it is worth, I can’t see it going through ‘as is’.

The recommended cash acquisition of John Wood Group by Sidara is a high-risk rescue deal, offering shareholders 30 pence per share as part of a holistic package that includes a $450 million capital injection and a critical debt refinancing. The deal is uniquely conditional on "Exceptional Conditions" outside either party's control, such as the clean publication of Wood's audited accounts and the successful completion of its debt restructuring which, in an unusual ruling by the Takeover Panel, are not subject to standard materiality tests and cannot be waived, meaning the acquisition will automatically lapse if any single condition fails.

Consequently, while the Wood Board unanimously recommends this offer as the only viable alternative to a potentially valueless restructuring for shareholders, its completion remains highly uncertain.

Has anyone considered Sidara requested the extension to force an RNS confirmation of today's sale? This extreme caution implies they may have discovered significant issues, potentially meaning the accounts are far worse than expected. Not long left to receive another significant piece of the jigsaw.

Yes it is. Automatic extension to 5pm Tuesday 26 August.

Another short extension is the most likely outcome, allowing more time to finalise lender agreements and the accounts. A firm offer is possible but less probable, while withdrawal remains unlikely.

News one way or another tomorrow.

Sidara does not need to Put Up or Shut Up ( PUSU) by the close of business today.

The deadline for Sidara will be formally extended (if they choose) to 5:00 pm on Tuesday, 26 August 2025. The Critical Factor: Monday, 25 August 2025 is a Bank Holiday. The UK Takeover Code contains specific rules for deadlines that fall on non-business days.

The key definition is: Rule 11.3: ‘Any period of time fixed by this Code which ends on a day which is not a business day shall end on the next business day thereafter."

Therefore, the practical, legally binding deadline is 5:00 pm on Tuesday, 26 August 2025.