Member Info for SurreyNot123

Completely agree. I can't believe he got away with what he did.

Slimeball.

That being said, now we're on this side of the deal it's nothing but a good indicator, when insiders keep buying.

I havent forgotten.

There's a celebratory few bottles of primativo with our names on it.

Sakura, i'll expect you to be there

red herring statement. the two things are mutually exclusive (pog and la india).

la india will be fine. and as some other have said, even if gold falls to 3000, mtl is still going to make an absolute killing.

if dupax is conservative / no news, the pop might be tempered (sentiment, markets not being rational), but by the time news rolls in on la india and we do the forst pour, this will absolutely ******* fly.

it's only compounded by pog - greater than proportionally.

not dependent on.

very important when considering your risk here. every incrementally move upwards on pog adds pennies to the pur sp equiv/nav.

i said the other day, this is going to become a behemoth.

Ora the Explorer - suggest you check recent interviews, RNS's or simply scroll down.

Stuff's not buried at corporate level - it's talked about every other week in most, if not all interviews, now.

Conversely the project sizes and AU throughput are in recent comments below. TL;DR: serious gold reserves and motoring POG puts us anywhere between 3 and 5bn fair value considering variables.

I remember my appearance too - I wasn't happy! MTL really got a steal on that deal. Where we're at now should have been where CNR was at five years ago from a valuation perspective. Seeing things come together is a pleasure, I just have to disregard the protracted timelines and fumbled sale by Mark and Jim. Mark's gone to ground, but Mellon's reputation's certainly not come out unscathed.

It's a shame he didnt hang on for a bit longer frankly as everything he (and some exceptionally knowledgeable investors) claimed was going to happen concerning central banks, currencies and POG has come to fruition almost to the letter. He's not getting any younger I guess, and CNR was still chump change for him so probably thought it just wanst worth the faff any longer.

Sakura I understand you're a smart individual that errs on the side of prudence.

I'd welcome yours or anyone else's feedback on my numbers. I've considered as much info as is available (using latest FS regarding La India volumes!).

To me this is an incredibly obvious multibag.

The valuation stack at $4.2k gold looks roughly:

Near-term (3–6 mths): 25–40p range purely on Runruno + stable gold.

12 mths (intot he La India commissioning window): 55–65p mid-case, with upside into the 80s on stronger sentiment.

24 mths (full La India production): ~70p mid w/ a 60–95p range.

Add Dupax potentisl: potentially lifts the 24-month view to 80–85p mid, up to ~110p in a full success case if they prove out anything of significance.

Probability-weighted, the base-case rerate odds look about 50% for the next 6 months, 45 % over 12 months, and 40 % over 24 months (assuming normal, or acceptable execution and schedule risk). Dupax exploration success would nudge that higher, so it's imprtant to figure out sooner rather than later whether it's going to be a tangible value add.

In short if MTL executes and gold holds, the market’s current 13–14p is no so far out of sync with the fundamentals it's scary.

I've been around the block, and forgive the fact that this is the MTL BB, but as far as opportunities go, this is an absolute whale in the making with a solid team that I'm convinced can deliver.

I hate hyperbole, by the way, so encourage anyone and everyone to just look at the facts and consider the underpinning maths. I've not seen anything like it (so proven out with factual fundamentals) for 40 years.

IP?

Runruno contamination & Q3 dip: Temporary impact with operations restored. Immaterial. FY guidance reaffirmed: Confidence maintained. Positive outcome. La India construction progressa.head of schedule and n budget - massove positive. Dupax drilling delay. Minor impact to early-stage exploration. Completely neutral. Cash position is lower but still healthy - no debt. Also immaterial. Hedging: last low-price hedge closed ans Q4 uplift expected. Another massive positive.

This RNS doesn’t materially alter the investment thesis here.in the slightest. It confirms the contamination issue's contained, shows La India's progressing faster than expected, and leaves the 2026–2029 growth story completely intact.

At most, it'll nudge near-term sentiment slightly lower (short-term investors reacting to the hiigher AISC and lower FCF), but it strengthens the medium-term risk profile thanks to La India’s schedule progress and dupax.opportunity.

In valuation terms, it might pull the 2 or 3 month probability of 16–22p down a tiny bi, but everything 6 months++ remains unchanged or improved.

RNS is a nothing burger.

Nothing's changed

.

The market (re., "humans") doesn't like round numbers.

I'm surprised there wasn't a sizeable retrace after 4k.

Honestly. Sit comfortably.

We certainly are.

I stood by La India before, i'll do it again.

That project is an absolute rocket ready to go.

Dupax, Run, whatever - they're the match (although dupax now looks like it might be able to hold it's own!).

All together now -

"IF IN DOUBT........"

*60k.

Hah!

Sorry you're completely right. I used the 80k from 2022 CNR FS - wrong column on my spreadsheet.

++70k spits out conservatively:

3 months (Jan 2026): 16 – 22p

6 months (Apr 2026): 19 – 30p

12 months (Oct 2026): 28 – 45p

24 months (Oct 2027): 42 – 75p

48 months (Oct 2029): 60 – 130p

This is only.current pipeline.

Those numbers don’t evne factor in Dupax. Once Dupax comes into it, it could be a serious game-changer. 10–25koz a year trucked to Runruno adds ~3–10p to fair value at $4k gold.

If they prove up 50koz+, were looking at a multi-feed setup that could easily justify 50–£1 in a few years. Dupax is still early-stage, but it’s proper upside isnt priced in yet at all.

I'd say good luck - but just be patient, would be more prudent.

Time in the market > timing the market.

Absolutely steaming ahead.

Personally I was expecting a retrace on the run into 4k - the market doesn't like round numbers - but it's blasted through easily which os great news.

Come on DB. Show us the money...

These are ranges, not point targets—reflecting operational, political and gold-price uncertainty. All ranges assume gold sustains near $4,000/oz and AISC ~$1,150/oz at Runruno and La India.

3 months (Jan 2026): 16–22p

Thesis: Runruno continues to throw cash; La India erection underway; market prices in construction progress and debt-free status.

6 months (Apr 2026): 18–26p

More La India build milestones, site infrastructure/ROM pad completion, minimal schedule slippage; continued quarterly FCF at elevated gold prices.

12 months (Oct 2026): 22–35p

First gold from La India targeted Q4’26; pre-commissioning re-rate plus initial pours typically command a premium if on schedule.

24 months (Oct 2027): 28–50p

La India at/near ~80 koz/yr run-rate; Runruno potentially declining but still contributing (or processing supplemental ore if Dupax exploration succeeds). Consolidated FCF becomes the main driver.

48 months (Oct 2029): 35–80p

Full La India contribution over multiple years; optionality from district scale (La India satellites) and Dupax near-mine potential to keep the Philippine plant busy beyond the Runruno FTAA feed. Upper end assumes successful resource conversion/expansion and sustained $4k gold.

****Rule-of-thumb cross-check: at 30–40p the implied mcap on 2.93bn voting shares is ~£880m–£1.17bn; with potential >$300m consolidated annual pre-tax margin at $4k gold (post-haircut FCF still hefty), the multiples remain plausible if execution is clean.

Drop seems overzealous looking at the trades. What gives?

Yea I don't agree with this at all.

Sell off based on what, exactly? The ongoing golbal developments indicate the absolute opposite. If this was a prospect I'd agree - it's human nature to want to profit take - but unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on where you sit), it's not. It's a significant reality, especially when the 4rse is about to drop out of the dollar.

With crypto (which isn't for me due to shaky fundamentals) it's become the global hallmark for equity and is a finite resource. Someone mentioned 8k oz? Whilst i think that's zealous I think the mentality not wrong. They've demand is now colossal, and we're sat on literally tons of the stuff.

Bombs away - going to be an exceptional Christmas.

Simply wall st is largely AI slop.

I wouldn't trust it as an outlet at all.

A quid over medium term i can see. 1.90 would be superb obviously, but I can't see that without a double in POG and business development that we're not currently exposed to.

Therefore I think it's pure hyperbole from a non reputable platform. Wouldn't say no though obviously.

Tiki.

Keen on hearing the maths behind your £1 valuation - care to share?

I think over zealous and the numbers don't quite add up unless dupax and ++ reserves in nica pan out. So presume you're just punting out an arbitrary nice exit