Member Info for Surprised2

Let’s hope his macro fund position never results in a drip feed of shares to market, a fire sale to finance major withdrawals or a strategic repositioning out of AIM. Doesn’t look like but retail shareholders will undoubtedly be the last to know!

At the present depressed S.P. non-retail shareholders are not going to accept a hostile bid . So hopefully over the next twelve months appropriate behind closed-doors conversations will take place. Given what we now know any multiple below 20-30 times present s.p. would be a steal. So while $10-15 conversation pieces on the board are interesting they’re hopefully meaningless in the longer term.

If, as many posters have suggested, there’s positive data in the morning, including from the second cohort, then while it would still be too early to update the analysts’ financial model to 100% probability for this line of treatment, a re-run of the algorithm at closer to 100 than 20-25% would provide an immediate and simple update on today’s potential mcap. Probably a figure close to $15/share but still way off a target of $100!

In 2007 exchange rates were approximately $2 to £ so £48.50 was very close to my prediction of a $100 share albeit there’s been the odd consolidation since!

As many of us are self professed LT’s, that perhaps suggests exit at closer to $100 rather than $10. Any guesses when that could occur? I’m sure it won’t be on the 26th, but hopefully a positive update nevertheless.

Can I declare an interest - I too am a long term investor and will be here at the end whatever the outcome. However I do find it interesting that whenever someone posts a point a view different to the herd, like the bank manager, they’re set upon and depicted as nuts. We shouldn’t forget that even now we’re priced at 50% of the last cash call albeit I’m relaxed about that. I would suggest questioning IPR in China is legitimate as is, given our track record, questioning the quality of a deal. My hope however is Evans and co are keeping a close watch to secure their own interests and by default ours.

Olav has double checked the summated algorithm such that the ultimate sp equals $100/share, and lets hope he's securely tied up IPR. As a result lets hope the news is as good as we think. Fingers crossed - lets hope!

.... but its not going to make serious money. Lets assume that the owners expect minimum returns, if this works, of between 6 and 10 times their investment (we've/they've spent north of $150m thus far on research!), and say they invested at £6/share (6p in old money). So they want/need sixty quid (or I'd say $100). That is not going to happen with a trend, nor by the normal 40% take over premium - it's going to require a huge spike in sp. It'll be interesting to see how and when (or if) that occurs.

Not even FB (who’s holdings fluctuated depending what day he thought it was) suggested such a thing! The reality if we hold on is that Rene will be either worth a lot of money or next to nothing.

Unless retail shareholders want to take short term gains the present movement is simply fluff leading to either Nirvana or oblivion - take your pick! Personally I’m going to hang on - yes I’m a long way from b/e but i didn’t buy to b/e or to make 10%. I bought to either make a fortune or to suffer a loss - simples! I’ll accept either but would prefer the former. Nature of the beast - accept it.

$100 will be a steal! IMHO of course should also add do your own research

10 shares just purchased. Is this the first sign of big Pharma on the move or has the Eastern Seaboard woken up?

If Rene had earnings of say £100m/a from one or all of its lines and the market likes its growth potential and gives it a P/E ratio of 20 then that results in a market cap of about £2b or about £67/share. Is this likely?

Demand exceeding supply? In any event the major shareholders are still at least a factor of five out of pocket so a way to go albeit it’s nice to hear the first song birds of summer.

If there’s an assumption that any significant buyer would have declared by now (unless it’s overseas, which provides a little more time) it suggests that the sale is either distributed amongst small retail investors, which given the scale may be unlikely, or the MM has a significant holding and is hoping to profit by manipulating the sale price. But who knows? I don’t.

I guess what’s being offered reflects what the market knows to be the price buyers and sellers are willing to pay/accept. I do however sometimes reflect on whether individual licence deals are good or bad? Will they for instance turn off big pharma - why buy the cookie jar if someone else already owns the rights to the cookies? But I’m comforted by the fact that Olav and co know what they’re doing.

I wonder if the Patriots' victory will stir buyers in the Greater Boston Area? Personally I have no idea but as noted below the next eighteen months or so may well define whether Rene is a 'dream come true' or a cash-draining nightmare. We'll see, but nevertheless a fun ride, even if the New England Patriots have won six Super Bowls in the same period.

Mr Hunt's take seems to be, the first read out from the next phase of Rene's novel stroke therapy will be in 2020 although the single site retinal study should provide data sooner. Interestingly he seems to imply these will be key milestones for partnering although does not to refer to exosome as an asset, perhaps because its at such an early stage and/or because of the recently announced collaboration. But who knows, probably not us!

Sorry mate - don't know the quality of management, potential competitive edge of their product(s), their investors' understanding of or appetite for risk, or Sanbio's ultimate business model so can't help you.

Purp, any insight into likely time frame from efficacy and pre-clinical to market for this particular adaptation? Thanks.

Fingers crossed.