Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No matter what happens and which ever way you cut it I’ve lost my shirt on Rene. So an historical lens is now a nonsensical and an unproductive way to look at this share. The fact I’ve had it for over a decade is meaningless. As Dibs suggests however does the present eight cents provide an opportunity whilst there’s still life to make 40 or even 100% on the price? It may well do (or maybe it won’t) but good luck to those taking that chance. At least it won’t take years for you to know the outcome of your bet.
Like the 100 to one shot at Belmont, still on the track and maybe even worth something as horse meat but sadly it doesn’t mean it’ll win. But my dollar landed on its nose over a decade ago so will watch the race until the end, even if I wont hold my breath. But good luck to all still betting.
I guess the recent Board purchases are designed to try to demonstrate confidence but as Waccy highlights, the latest probably represents about a month’s remuneration from her NED role at Rene. Perhaps more sadly, unless London’s governance standards are slipping, it’s a bad look if these purchases are closely followed by positive news’ flows. So we may have a while longer to wait! Nonetheless for those who celebrate it, have a great Easter.
Thanks for the link Epsilon. The steps they took to try to survive are familiar! Any guesses at our year end cash position and burn rate?
I often read on this board, “just one deal”. Could the authors elucidate what that means? Fosun was the equivalent of a couple of months of cash burn! But like you Winkle my weighted average is a factor of ten greater than this latest ray of sunshine - yes more fool me but I hope the optimists are right - I’ve lived here with a number for the last fifteen years so I’d be pleased if they’re right just once. Please …
In the Fall of ‘22 CEO Isted failed to get a cash call away when Reneuron was sitting on about £8+m., an equivalent of about twelve months’ expense, which some would argue is close to the minimum amount of cash a business should hold.
Yes, as many have indicated Ross has reduced the burn rate such that the net cash line has been extended into ‘24, and as a result has bought time.
It would be naive however to think that some form of cash inflow won’t be required well before that predicted end date. Thankfully Ross and his Board understand that! Summer/Fall of ‘23?
Whilst partnering appears the right and only route, our noval exosome delivery mechanism is possibly a decade away from FDA approval. So I guess the sixty four million dollar question is, does Mr Ross continue to try and fund Rene by various means for that period; something that many, including institutions, may have little appetite for given the experience of the last decade or does he try to sell?
The question then of course is to who and at what price? Novel therapies become exponentially more valuable over time but we don’t appear to be anywhere near a Phase 1 trial so what price would Ross and his Board off load the stock for? Sadly I haven’t the inside track of some so I’ve no idea but possibly dimes not dollars!
Thanks Sajy, it’s good to have you back! It’s clear you’ve an inside track, a direct wire into Mr Ross’ office; in future it would be useful if you could as a result give us a heads up in advance of these RNS’. Thanks in anticipation.
Rene can sometimes feel like San Quentin’s antechamber but Mr Ross has intervened - we’ve been saved! Pinning his colours to the mast, runway extended, the auditors kept at bay, certainly for a while, we have another nine months at least to punctuate this board with our hopes and dreams. Fingers crossed once again; have a great end to the week.
Probably most stockholders are aware of this latest objective, as they have been over the last decade and more of other such dreams. There is a general hope however that like a broken clock they’ll deliver at least once.
The concern is time is running out unless there is either further dilution, which they failed to achieve in the latter part of ‘22 or the runway is extended by some form of industry collaboration, which is the gist of the latest aspiration.
Of course what no one is presently illuminating is what an extended runway represents, should it be achieved, other than more time and more research! Something that Rene has been very good at for the last fifteen years. Something that has been awesome for those presenting at conferences, less so for those wanting to make a turn on their dollar.
On a straight line basis cash would have been around £8m at the end of December and close to £5.5m at this coming year end. Would auditors sign that off as a going concern? That could imply Mr Ross has three months to pull something out of the bag! I’m sure he’s aware of that.
Many who’ve been here for duration will recall the amusing and unresolved discussion of whether the two Salcombe yachtsmen and horse enthusiasts were one and the same! But as Allen suggests without Mr Woodford’s support this would have been long gone.
What does this suggest? Clearly failing to get a refinancing away, losing a major stockholder, and halving value is an interesting indictment of any CEO’s performance but Mr Ross and his Board have now removed two CEO’s. The latest they only appointed a few months ago. In each instance the Chair has filled the hole. Does this suggest poor diligence in the appointment, an ever present white knight or a self belief that only he is capable of turning this around? It would be interesting to know what senior managers think - a positive move or the removal of one of their own? It will also be interesting to hear what the optimism in the statement is based on - it almost sounded like one of this board’s postings. The lack of market reaction, up or down however may simply indicate ambivalence!
It’s good to see the rich tradition of optimism that has defined this board over the last decade continues and is in safe hands.
Happy Christmas
The term ‘topping up’ is sometimes used by proponents of this stock, to reflect buys in the hundreds. Phil if you’re sitting on 200k I wish you well as I do others who similarly ‘put their money where their mouth is’. Good luck and a very good Christmas and new year.
With all this noise, where’s Phil?
As there’s generally little substance to anything posted on this board, certainly anything I post, it seems a little unfair to single out DD, particularly during this Christmas season. Let’s hope ‘ 23 is better but as is often quoted, do your own research.
Whilst it’s difficult to argue with your conjecture it is surprising nevertheless if it is true that the company didn’t put a more optimistic spin on their announcement, rather allowing the stock to tank once again. Anyway I’m off to bed and hopefully when I wake up the board’s optimists will finally prove to be correct.
In the twelve months until cash literally runs out what is going to change?
1. Global inflation will remain high
2. Geopolitical risk will remain high
3. Markets will continue to look to safe havens
4. The door towards the global biotech sector will generally remain closed
5. Rene’s poor to average management capability won’t have changed
6. Rene will continue to have no brand value
This suggests the Board will liquidate assets in a buyers markets, which means effectively selling patents. Would be happy to be proved wrong.
Thanks Graffiti, a good summary and as you suggest those with a true inside track, the main stockholders appear not to have the confidence to dig deeper at this stage. C’est la vie of a high risk high reward biotech but no doubt some will soon return to this board to offer unsubstantiated optimism. Let’s hope they’re right.