Member Info for Surprised2

We can scratch our heads, huff and puff, but Rene’s presently demonstrating all the classic price characteristics and risks of a low-volume thinly traded cent stock. Hopefully the non-retail shareholders understand that and will remain sufficiently sanguine until there’s a potential paradigm shift in the share price; many posters have offered guesses when that be, but in the interim I suppose it’s a matter of continuing to hunker down!

The price suggests there wasn’t a queue, but neither does it seem there’s a queue for his other biotech stocks. Nevertheless it’s been got away, which is positive in itself and clearly they think it’s worth a punt at this price. Lets hope their right!

There was a recent article in the British press, which reported a former Formula 1 world motor racing champion, had introduced researchers in the field of dementia to the energy and timelines employed by racing teams' R&D specialists. Whilst the industry comparison is not obvious, the recent January presentation nevertheless seems to once again demonstrate a laissez faire researchers' paradise, where the research , "will take as long as it takes". Whilst this may be unfair, nonetheless I would suggest urgency has not been a regular feature of the language of the Rene senior team. As an aside it would be useful to understand the projected cashflow forecast of the Fosun deal; many seem to pin our future on similar deals but if income doesn't match headline hype such deals could be meaningless in the near term albeit they will demonstrate confidence in potential products.

Ultimately it will depend on the individual share holders of each of the two funds not their managers. As we know the Equity Fund is closed and money will be released to individual share holders in some form of orderly fashion to maximise return. The same may apply to Patient Capital, particularly if there is a shareholder stampede! Perhaps more interesting is whether NW’s recent link up with Chinese investors will result in him offering to buy the Rene stake of these funds. If he does it may add confidence if not perhaps he knows something we don’t! Have a good Christmas.

Re-stating the blatantly obvious; a third of the company is potentially up for sale and yet retail investors often advertise their 'topping up' by purchasing 100s of shares, which suggests the price will remain low! Institutional investors on the other hand have generally not been around although where they have, they have historically topped at 10% - lets hope we find up to three of those pretty soon or the overhang and its effect on price could last a while.
That overhang suggests, despite the possibility of another territorial 'Fosun' type deal, the price will remain closer to Purp's prediction rather than Freddie's, certainly for the near term but happy to be proved wrong. Although like many LTH I'm not here for one - three buck blips! I'm here for $100 although recognise it could just as easily be $0! Merry Christmas and good luck for 2020 and probably beyond.

Any insights on half-year news from crystal ball owning correspondents? Personally I suspect we’re either playing hard ball with potential partners albeit we have the Chinese model to base negotiations on, or the queue is not extensive (or non-existent). Cash position we can anticipate, likewise next sets of results. But let’s hope they surprise us on collaborators and data from ongoing trials. But who knows - I don’t. History suggests it’s a very long winding road!

Another week.... a week without Purps or his latest incarnation suggesting 50c or the ex-Freddie alumni advocating three bucks plus for a share that could ultimately be worth $100! Another week where fund managers are misrepresented as owners, another week where major ownership ambition and sentiment may have finally disappeared. Another week where fund managers may see three as a result. Another week where the dream of LTHs and the prize that many of us have patiently waited for starts to be dashed by plans for a $3 take out. Another week where results are months or years away. Another week ....

Looking from afar I wonder what next? What ever our views of NW he has played a significant role to date and his demise raises a number of questions we cannot presently answer. What happens to his significant shareholding and does it’s sale afford an opportunity to a third party, which is detrimental to retail holders or not? Will others stand up to the plate in future funding rounds as NW has done in the past? Yes most posters believe Rene is on the right track and is within a few years of unequivocally demonstrating that; however will we benefit or will some late entry opportunist try to take it out at a fraction of its ultimate worth? Interesting times but it was always a gamble so nothing really has changed other than the arrival on the scene of another risk or certainly large unknown.

Stating the obvious there seems to be three potential positive share price stages, which are clearly not mutually exclusive.
1. Another Fosun but in North America, which would probably give respite and a positive forward movement. Time scale could be sooner rather than later but is unlikely to be life changing in terms of the value of our holding (it would be useful if Rene declared Fosun’s stage payment criteria so the impact on the cash position is known);
2. A buy-out. At what price and would it be before the stroke results in mid 2020 and publication of extended RP data?
3. Following product market entry. Is this likely before 2021, even with RP orphan status?
On the other hand is the potential for a near cash call and resulting dilution negatively affecting even the inexact Aim market? And in between times is share price simply dependent on modest daily movements and manipulation?

Is Rene subject to complacency and laissez faire management or simply an ineffective regulatory model? In half the time we’ve been at this Zuckerberg has 2 billion daily users, Musk is developing rockets aimed at Mars, and Bezos is wondering what world he’ll conquer next? Whilst we continue to issue RNS’ statements suggesting it’s hard to recruit 100 patients and results will be put back six to nine months people continue to lose the ability to read and dependants struggle to care for those who’ve lost mobility. Unfortunately even the worshipped MH seems content to spend cash and espouse “it’ll take as long as it takes”. Whilst not a serial Olav basher let’s hope his presentation demonstrates energy and urgency not just sterile (but hopefully good) data!

I guess both conferences referred to in the RNS require papers and presentation material in advance and thus at the point of submission data is in the public domain and therefore requires an early RNS, which by its very nature has created more questions than answers - hopefully the presentations themselves will calm market nerves.
Whilst the opthamologists who have posted on this board have views ultimately the success of Rene will depend on a very particular audience who will decide whether a form of licensing agreement is worth investing in. Hopefully they will understand the nuances of the results better than we and the market presently does. Equally lets hope the results as presented trigger a stage payment from Fosun, which again unfortunately we are not party to. If it doesn't then perhaps we should start to worry!

Check earlier this morning ??

As there is only one nine month post treatment reported in this RNS it could be assumed this result relates to the first patient of the first cohort, which suggests a nine letter fall (21 - 12). However using the same assumption two of the three reported at six months must equally be from that first cohort, which suggests they have seen their mean improvement double (28.7-14.5). Whilst we don't know whether the first patient's results represents a die off between 6 and 9 months or a random event nonetheless two of the three in the first cohort must be delighted whilst of course holding their breath, and I guess the third is pretty pleased too! It would be useful if the October presentation included something about expected cell generation/durability over time. I appreciate however they may not simply know at this point.

As there seems to be an inverse relationship between what’s posted on this board and share price, perhaps it’s time to agree with the poster of a week or two ago, who said that in reality “we haven’t a clue”, which may suggest that we should just simply bed down for a couple of years and continue to live on in hope. But of course we have the October RP results some will say and they surely will take us to a place which serious buyers have failed to see. Not only, this board will soon argue, will we drift up to £3 but far far beyond. I do hope so otherwise I wouldn’t still be here but unfortunately it continues to be tomorrow!

Given the insight often shown on this board perhaps someone could share the verification process for double blind phase II studies and likely time frames for publishing results, which may indicate why we have to wait until October. Again if anyone has detailed knowledge ,likely time frames to a phase III study, which will be a multiple of 10 bigger. Thanks in anticipation

42 shares! That’ll be Woodford

In a week, which provided possibly not the news we were looking for, but October is not too far away and I guess peer reviewed conference papers are important in citing research outcomes, particularly to regulatory bodies. Equally I guess RENE wouldn’t be recruiting if they had nothing to sell. But as always this week’s board contained its share of hyperbole and the odd comment that made this LTH smile:
From HD (is he a member of the Rene cabal or an intruder?) “Just relax everyone it’s all ok”
From EoR: “The Woodford fund is open”.
Have an enjoyable weekend.

Our reality and the only thing we have control over is whether to stay or go. Whilst it may be fun to speculate, to raise questions or even to propose new hypotheses relating to shareholders, results or future returns, it won't make too much difference.
As in a post below, in a few years we'll either be a bit richer or we'll have lost part of our shirt. My hope, if we're to be richer, its not at a give-away price, which in my opinion (and of course to add to speculation on this board) is anywhere south of $100/s albeit that value will require a fair wind and institutional investors being able to withstand circumstance.

If a party is either interested in or buys W's stake in RENE then they have a mandatory duty to make an offer for the company (I believe he had that requirement waivered when he made his last investment). Personally I don't want anyone making offers when we have a sp south of $3!

The median cost of drug development in the US is about $6b/drug to market (this includes aborted costs of those which don’t make it). While it clearly depends on potential market size any additional development, which reduces the median below the $6b average increases profitability. You can do the math but if RENE develops two commercial market streams in the next few years then the market cap won’t be £100 m!