Member Info for surprised

SHELL 4Q ADJ PROFIT $7.31B, EST. $6.14B

SHELL ANNOUNCES A SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM OF $3.5B

SHELL 4Q NET DEBT $43.54B, EST. $40.07B

Q4 Production and dividend ahead of consensus

Ceo Mitch Flegg stepping down in June leaves #SQZ '' in its best ever health, very well positioned to deliver full value from its assets and exploit opportunities in the UK and beyond #SQZ is now well placed for further growth in service of increased shareholder value, to which the Board is committed as its top priority.''

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1752956779346944298

The downgrade by Goldman is the sort that provides brokers with a bad name. Goldman suggest gas will be in over supply (lng) from 2027 & with Europe having decent inventory for 2023 only 2024 winter may see tight supply. No mention by Goldman of Oil or the transformational new deal that will turn #HBR into one of the world's largest and most geographically diverse independent oil and gas companies & no one can judge oil/gas prices or supply lines 2/3 years ahead to impact today's sp whilst ignoring the fact #HBR will be one of the world's largest suppliers & not limited to Europe......other broker has 570p target based on the new deal.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1752787986515702169

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1752668937295151332

the downgrade Goldman broker note 😳they must be looking at a different #HBR to the rest of us as it transforms to a major player.

Acquisition is expected to transform Harbour into one of the world's largest and most geographically diverse independent oil and gas companies......broker has 570p target

Harbour Energy is acquiring Wintershall Dea asset portfolio, completely transformational deal for HBR. Seller BASF and LetterOne is primarily taking shares in HBR at 360p/share.

Https://twitter.com/Petro_Tal/status/1751938268499714121

Manolo Zuniga, CEO of PetroTal (pictured), was pleased to present to energy analysts today in London. A recording of the presentation will be made available on the Company’s website over the coming days

PTAL state that every $3 increase in Brent above $77 is $10m additional Free Cash Flow for them 👍

Rns trading update- revenue up 11.4% to £329.9m, Pet Club increased in membership by 4%, with 500,000 members as at 31/12/2023, successfully completed a further four acquisitions of small animal practices in Australia, strong pipeline of potential acquisition opportunities. In line and growing.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1750419264358543554

If the joint venture is built into the current price at just 250p that would be disappointing, possibly a short term volatile shake, however, 250p on current view does not appear unreasonable, with more to come.....

Overall, in our view this is a strong update that sets PetroTal up for a year of significant activity, further growth, and ongoing material shareholder returns. Over the course of the year we should get newsflow from operational progress both at Bretana but, more importantly in our view, on offtake routes. This should then help underpin positive production updates, interspersed with quarterly dividend confirmations. PetroTal has great potential in its Bretana field, and we expect 2024 to represent further realisation of this, underpinned by strong shareholder returns.

Bretana holds a significant 96.7mmbbl of 2P reserves, and PetroTal has a multi-year drilling programme which we expect to take production to over 26mbbl/d in 2026 in the 2P case. The company has established multiple export routes for its

Bretana crude, including barging to Manaus in Brazil, to the regional Iquitos refinery, and into the ONP pipeline (currently offline) via the Saramuro pump station, helping underpin export reliability via diversity.

New export routes are also being brought forward. PetroTal also engages in significant local social programmes in order to help reinforce its local licence to operate. The company has a strong balance sheet, holding US$111m of net cash at the end

of 2023, supporting ongoing CAPEX investment and returns to shareholders, . As such, PetroTal offers investors regular drilling news flow, strong and growing production based on a material asset, significant cash flows underpinned by the variety of export routes, and an increasingly established dividend

2024 production / sales expected to average 17,000 bopd a 20% year on year increase

Forecast funds flow and free funds flow of $160 million and $25 million, respectively

Targeting a base 12% return from dividends and buybacks prior to liquidity sweeps (dividend top up payments to be determined at the declaration dates)

Initial 7 day production rate for well 16H of 7,500 bopd

The Company will conduct pilot sales shipments to the OCP in Ecuador

A new sales route will commence through Yurimaguas to Bayovar starting in July 2024

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1749337989673582593

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shell-Starts-Layoffs-in-Search-of-Efficiencies.html

Shell has begun hundreds of layoffs, sources with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Thursday, as the supermajor looks to create more value through simplification and discipline.

Last year, Shell laid out plans to raise its dividend by 15%, effective from the second quarter 2023 interim dividend, as the UK-based supermajor pledged to grow its gas business and extend its position in the upstream.

Harbour Energy is acquiring Wintershall Dea asset portfolio, completely transformational deal for HBR. Seller BASF and LetterOne is primarily taking shares in HBR at 360p/share.

Todays update rns - holding all positions in HBR as it transitions away from UK and transforms as below, today's update does not appear to change the move to a much larger (global )geographically diverse business

''Acquisition is expected to transform Harbour into one of the world's largest and most geographically diverse independent oil and gas companies......broker has 570p target''

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1747900008043557111

Bank of America has raised its price target to 500p from 460p, and reiterated its ‘buy’ rating, after taking a closer look at the proposed acquisition of Wintershall.

“We like what we see,” said analysts at BofA in a research note.

t notes the “problematic” UK production mix (fiscal and regulatory unknowns) goes from around 90% to around 30%.

“The proposed transaction offers major geographic diversification and expands Harbours production base >2.5x towards ~500kboe/d,” the bank explained.

“Reserve life metrics are improved, opex and capex intensity reduced,” and it expects the Wintershall portfolio to generate the full $2.15 billion (and change) cash price tag with its own FCF if the deal closed at year-end 2024.

“We see a major re-rating opportunity,” BofA said.

The world will find itself short of oil from 2025 onwards as exploration for longer-producing crude reserves is set to lag demand growth, Vicki Hollub, chief executive of Occidental Petroleum, said at the Davos forum on Tuesday.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Occidentals-CEO-Sees-Oil-Supply-Crunch-from-2025.html

If the activist groups want to help invest in 'green' why don't they go invest in Orstead or Siemens where billion dollar losses are available for investors.

"Shell's board has previously advised shareholders that the Follow This resolution was unrealistic and simplistic, that it would have no impact on mitigating climate change, have negative consequences for our customers, and was against the interests of the company and our shareholders.

"Continued, targeted investment in oil and gas will remain necessary to meet global energy demand over the coming decades as the world transitions to a lower carbon future."

''We asked some of the UK’s leading fund managers which sectors or stocks they thought were the most promising for 2024...

Henderson Opportunities Trust favours Hydrogen business Ceres Power (CWR). It has had a torrid time but made real progress, licensing its technology to create hydrogen from steam and electricity from hydrogen and oxygen. ‘Bigger companies like Bosch and South Korean company Doosan, who can afford the necessary capital spend, are building the plant. Doosan’s plant gets commissioned next year and then royalties should start coming through. Ceres’ technology addresses a vital and huge problem so it is very promising and I like their approach.’

High Production in 4Q23 and high YE23 net cash • 4Q23 production was 14,865 bbl/d with 20,090 bbl/d in December. This compares with 11,808 bbl/d in October and 13,420 bbl/d in mid November. • Well 16H is expected to start production by mid-January. The well will allow PetroTal to maintain production over 20 mbbl/d for the foreseeable future. • PetroTal expects to replace the 2P reserves produced in 2023. • PetroTal held US$90 mm in unrestricted cash at YE23. This is above our expectations of ~US$70 mm. In addition, PetroTal holds US$21 mm in restricted cash, US$70 mm in accounts receivable and US$68 mm in accounts payable. • The latest quarterly dividend of US$0.02 per share (US$0.08 per share per year) represents a dividend yield of ~13.5%. The ongoing share buyback programme represents a further return of >2% per year.

We re-iterate our target price of £1.50 per share

'' We believe Seplat has multiple catalysts for value uplift which remain poorly understood despite the share price outperformance this year. Based on new modelling, we provide detailed insights into these catalysts. Most certain are improved operational reliability and the start-up of the ANOH gas project. Completion of the MPNU acquisition and conversion to the new PIA terms could be transformative while enhanced corporate governance and the improved outlook for Nigeria add supportive context. Seplat is on a discount rating to peers and on compelling forward valuation multiples with upside of 32%-91% to our initial NAV estimates, excluding the potential transformational value from the MPNU and PIA uplifts. ''

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1745102909778378926

Wti 73

Brent 78

Gas ttf 31

uk 78.5