Member Info for surprised

Pending a new CEO taking over and surely a non UK Oil/Gas play upcoming with their buying power.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1765310431701164313

Added to holding 139p.... cash at bank $450m (2022: $404m), Revenue $1,061.3 million up 12%, Production averaged 47,758 boepd, up 8%, special dividend of US 2.4p, in addition to Q4 23 declared dividend of 2.4p, confident will acquire transformational Exxon Mobil's (MPNU)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1765000718711160836

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1764299743264399582

Advn debates with respect are often far from interesting and if we think LSE has some negative/trolling posters types it aint nothing on that one.

Current prices

Crude Oil 79.719 +1.88% day +3.87% this week

Brent 83.348 +1.77% day +2.97% this week

TTF Gas 25.59 + 2.61% day +11.54% week

UK Gas 63.6100 +3.30% day +12.84% week

Broker report out - FY23 results – strong performance, more to come

''Seplat delivered a strong operating and financial performance in 2023 with production up 8% to 47.8kboed and EPS increased by 27% to US$0.14, despite a near 20% fall in the oil price. Reserves increased by 9% to 478mmboe. Guidance for start-up at ANOH was reconfirmed and Seplat remains highly confident that the transformational MPNU acquisition will complete. Cash flow was strong and net debt was reduced to US$306m (YE22 US$366m). The current quarterly dividend of USc3 was supplemented with a special dividend of USc3 taking the total full year dividend to USc15,

This was an excellent set of results from Seplat, confirming that benefit of the new resilience in production from enhanced export access and 2024 promises an even better performance..''

With special divi, the next quarter divi is 4.8p on top of excellent results and fully expecting transformational deal ahead, a lot to like and sp should rise from here too .

Cash at bank $450m (2022: $404m), Revenue $1,061.3 million up 12%, Production averaged 47,758 boepd, up 8%, special dividend of US 2.4p, in addition to Q4 23 declared dividend of 2.4p, confident will acquire transformational Exxon Mobil's (MPNU)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1763105027000881450

Oil and Gas ⬆️ Oil stocks down ⬇️ 🤦‍♂️

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1762847508496048165

The largets trading houses have pledged investments in the green energy transition, but returns there are very poor, as the integrated oil and gas supermajors have seen first-hand over the past years. We borrow much less from banks and are waiting for good investment opportunities. But those are slim in loss-making green energy an executive at one of the top trading firms told Reuters.

Low returns from renewables have prompted oil and gas giants like Shell and BP to streamline and/or reduce exposure to renewables and clean energy solutions and pivot back to their core business of oil and gas

Oil and gas provide profits unlike renewable projects where losses have been at multi billion dollar levels over the lat year, investment will only go where profits are available.

Patience required as Downing selling down their holding, however, broker note out with target price 290p

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1762759745981628713

While official data indicates an oil glut, the physical oil market is experiencing significant tightness, as evidenced by soaring spreads, contrary to market expectations.

Factors contributing to the physical market's tightness include supply issues in various regions, including vessel diversions, freeze-offs in the US, worker protests in Libya, and logistical constraints in the North Sea

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Short-Sellers-in-Trouble-As-Physical-Oil-Market-Defies-Data.html

''Short Sellers in Trouble As Physical Oil Market Defies Data''

''EIA (Biden's dept) has done everything it could to indicate there is a glut of oil, Biden fears inflation before the election, the physical market is sending just the opposite signal, with spreads showing screaming physical tightness.''

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1762530470191939606

Once again we have a party threatening to undermine the energy sector with a position on oil and gas that is not grounded in the reality of how net zero will be delivered. Labour has fallen into the trap of presenting the switch as a binary move from one source of energy to another, and suggesting that 200,000 plus workers will simply hop off their oilrigs and into a new green energy job.

The reality is far more complex and requires a pragmatic approach to domestic oil and gas production — one that is realistic about the time it will take to build projects and jobs in renewables, and one that is honest about the energy we use.

Our politicians consistently forget the “net” in net zero. We will still need oil and gas beyond 2050. And if we are to do that in the most efficient way possible, we need new North Sea fields. Labour’s wrong-headed position on new development is unsurprising, given it has been drawn up without any engagement with the industry.The price of getting the energy transition wrong is huge. Labour needs to reflect hard on these numbers, talk to the people and companies and come back with a sensible position.

Siemes and Orsted have suffered $4 -$5 billion losses on wind farm projects this year and it is clear Labour and Starmer have no idea about the energy industry economics, wind or oil. The labour stance on windfall tax and allowances displays their total lack of business acumen and the lack of understanding of the impact of their policies. For a government in waiting displaying such ignorance of the UK's energy sector is a concern and it is clear that North Sea operators will begin a transition away from the UK in 2024 leaving less tax take for Labour and less energy security for the UK.

Labour have a short window to develop a plan in conjunction with the Oil and gas sector or see a complete collapse of their 'energy polcy' .....SQZ can still make a profit in the North Sea due to their nifty operation, however, they must surely be poised for operations beyond the North Sea and away from both Tory and Labour tax grabs.

Offshore Energies UK issued a post-

CEO, David Whitehouse said: "Labour either can’t do the maths or haven’t considered the alarming jobs impact that will be felt up and down the country. With no new investment, 42,000 jobs will go, and we could start to see the effects as early as this year. These are not faceless numbers but decent, hardworking people working across the UK to provide the energy we will need today and in the future.

The impact of no new investment will be felt across the whole economy – today we estimate the UK will lose £26 billion of economic value. It will undermine the very industry which can and must play a critical role in delivering a homegrown energy transition.

Last week I listened carefully to the Shadow Chancellor promise that Labour will work in partnership with UK businesses. We’ve always said the path to net zero is through working together between government, business, and people, ensuring no individual, community or sector is left behind – that’s not what we’ve had from Labour. The least this industry, our people, and our communities deserve is an urgent meeting with Labour leadership."

Posted earlier today - ''It'll take time to realise a decent rise, as broker trades, undisclosed shorts etc all have to manouvre out on a very decent rns, it took a few months to walk it down and will likely take a week or two to climb, there will be vey few with profits in the low 9's and it will take a bit of trading against the buys to calm the sp to allow a few to change position, brokers algo's are quick to push it down but test patience on a decent rise. The good news is it's good news and fundamentals will win in the end .''

A few will have changed postion today on a decent rns as stated above, broker trades, undisclosed shorts etc. and the consistent 20-30,000 block (around £2k ish each) trades were placed sufficiently well to 'calm' the sp (as stated not many, if any, will be in profit on long positions in the low 9p's ) so once all re positioned the sp will have the freedom to rise on fundamentals going forward, Oil and gas both up tonight and i3e clearly placed to see a return to a more respectable sp over coming weeks .

It'll take time to realise a decent rise, as broker trades, undisclosed shorts etc all have to manouvre out on a very decent rns, it took a few months to walk it down and will likely take a week or two to climb, there will be vey few with profits in the low 9's and it will take a bit of trading against the buys to calm the sp to allow a few to change position, brokers algo's are quick to push it down but test patience on a decent rise. The good news is it's good news and fundamentals will win in the end .

''It's a cash machine -share price disconnect is truly exceptionally attractive in our judgement, the valuation gap has grown inordinately creating, in our view, an exceptional attractive opportunity''

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1762035585198194794

Broker note con'd...

Valuation disconnect: i3 Energy’s dividend yield has grown inordinately in 2023 – creating a disconnect between i3 Energy’s robustness as a cash machine linked to commodity prices. We believe that that disconnect is further compounded by the

improving balance sheet strength of i3 Energy. On balance, our high conviction belief is that i3 Energy is a premium company in terms of its i) management ii) assets, and iii) delivery; however, that is not yet reflected in the company’s share price. Although that disconnect can be viewed as a frustration, it is also a tremendous opportunity:

for reference, an 11.5% dividend/cash return over 5 years generates a compounded rate of return of 72%, and that ignores the significant reductions in i3 Energy’s debt and the exposure to a potential normalisation of US gas prices – the disconnect is truly exceptionally attractive in our judgement, the valuation gap has grown inordinately creating, in our view, an exceptional attractive opportunity

I3 Energy Q4 Update – It’s a Cash Machine

i3 Energy has provided a solid Q4 2023 operational and financial update. Production for the quarter amounted to 20,413 boe/d (WHIe: 20,236 boe/d) providing for an average production rate of 20,711 boe/d for the year (WHIe: 20,668). The company indicated that 2023’s net operating income (equating to cashflow in the field before hedging and taxes) amounted to $US 93m (WHIe: $US 94.6m). The company reported an unaudited year-end net debt figure of $US23m (WHIe: $US28.5m). We believe that i3 Energy’s production and cashflow figures tell the story: it’s a cash machine, reliably delivering production, realised pricing and costs consistent with our estimates. We cannot emphasise enough the quality of the operational delivery being provided by the company and believe that that is the key take-away from the Q4 update.

i3 Energy paid a dividend of over £15m in 2023 and based on the current quarterly dividend of 0.2565p/sh (1.0260p annualised) is expected to pay £12.3m of dividends in 2024.