Member Info for Superdad

H Chris, if it goes to .1 there are warrants at .0072 which might be exercised and sold by some, giving us a few pounds. The warrants total £5m, but most are likely not to take them up as they have another 2 years plus to run, but some may want their profit now. They are in the hands of Turner Pope placing investors so quite possible a few will want to make a quick buck

Chris, my responses are similar.

CEO took over about 18 months ago and has worked with the Chairman before. He appears totally genuine guy, focussed on delivery through outsourcing and thus reducing our investment, costs and potential liabilities. The change in strategy is, I believe, totally at his instigation after reviewing the previous failed attempts to make anything of the resource. The small board keeps costs low, especially as we are outsourcing I think it is a real positive. The Chairman has a good stake and is no mug either

Funding - I believe that the outsourcing means no meaningful investment needed. Chairman at the AGM stated that more funding might be needed, but with the speed of contracts I am hopeful none will be needed as I view us as being cash flow positive in Q1 2026 and hopefully we have enough cash to see us there. The finals are due by the end of December latest, although accountant who was at AGM was hopeful that would be done by end of November.

South Africa- I agree not the best jurisdiction but by far not the worst for an AIM minnow! There is a BBE requirement of 26% of profits (I look at this as a miners tax). The power issue will now be more a Dmng issue rather than ours as they are contracted to supply the required ore. Generators etc are common place to cover outages, so I don’t see this as an issue. Remember J’berg is a major financial city based around mining. takes - I believe this is still ongoing but with the outsourcing .

Off takes agreements. I believe still happening but again this is a Dmng issue as they are running the mine and producing. I expect more news on these in due course as mining commences later this month. I believe there is the demand, although as production becomes higher and steady there is the opportunity to export and not just sell to the local market. Exporting generally brings better prices for us. Smelter remains an issue, but I see this as more potential returns on top of ore and DMS magnetite. I believe the smelter is slightly moth balled but with no cost at present. It could add more icing to the cake.

Does that cover everything?

LT, thanks for that and it does show the impossible job we have understanding the value of what we are producing! For transparency I own a smidgeon under 3% iof IRON now, with an average of around .065 (I have been invested for 10 years and been averaging down!). So we both want and believe in the same thing, and I hope your more optimistic outlook is correct, although mine will still be good! I am in SA at the end of November so will see if I can find out any more whilst there

Chris, same as LT but also ChatGPT and some guys I know in SA and in the industry. Unfortunately it is proving impossible at this time to get absolute definitive numbers!

LT, agree re magnatite should be higher, but I just can’t find anywhere which gives a sensible answer as ther appear too many variables. I did find $200, but as you say it does seem too low.

Don’t suppose you guys live near London and we could meet to pool our knowledge and try and be more exact, FTF over a beer much easier than over this board! I have a fair bit invested so any info sharing much appreciated

Yes, they can produce more although I believe the market is not unlimited within SA and surrounds (their preferred market place at the moment, although exports definitely possible) and we are a new producer, hopefully enough demand not to affect the price.

Yes, so cost of raw materials is say $80, sells at say $200, need to take off plant costs and rest split between Sable, us and Dnmng, say 33%. No clue what costs are!

Hi LT, lovely figures but I don’t fully agree with some of the synopsis!

I believe the grade of our ore is very high, and I am working on 2 t of ore for 1t of magnetite. I believe coat of extraction to be around $30 per ton and sale price say $80. So that gives a gross profit of $50pt, or $1.5m per month on 30,000 tons. Say 20% for D, leaves $1.2m. Remember that 26% of that goes to BBE once all costs etc are taken out (not sure about previous losses. That leaves say $900,000 pm, or £675,0000.

Also, if we are taking the profit at this stage, we then have to buy the ore for the DMS so be careful of not double counting!

We do agree a healthy profit, I am hoping for a 5 bagger at this stage

Having met the new CEO he strikes me as a really good chap, very straight and someone who will only give news when there is real news to give. He is working his socks off to get all this done and in the 18 mo the or so has made a total difference to this. News will flow when there is real news and the latest RNS has stated this should be more as things progress this year and next. Personally I am happy with the comms as nothing is being ramped or hidden IMHO

Although I disagree about this being a 10 bagger, I do feel it is massively undervalued and added another 20m in the pull back this morning at .0517. In my view we should be at .07 on this news, rising to .1 as actual output data and financials start to be released. Doubling ones money in a few months (and that is hopefully only the start!) looks a jolly good investment to me. GLA

In my opinion this will never 10 or 20 bag, the market capitalisation would be far too much. As a large investor I am looking for a minimum doubling my investment, hoping for triple, but to say 10 bag in my opinion is just not realistic

Interesting. I understand the quality of our pre is very high, so working on $90. Starting at 250,000 tons, that’s $22,500,000. From all my research I think costs are around $35 per ton for mining, which makes $8,750,000 in costs. I think our slice will be nearer 60%, $8,250,000 or £6m per annum. Then we have the Sable agreement and BBE, so say that is only £3m, less our costs. A return of around £2m pa which should increase as production increases to 30,000 per month looks a great return for a £7.5m market cap with a LOM of around 50 years. But as you all say, many assumptions and we won’t know till we are given more details. However I am the one buying your 30,000,000 shares as I believe this should make a good return over 6 months. But lots of ifs or buts so I totally understand why you are selling your shares to me! 🤞

LT, I agree more with your second synopsis, that there will be some selling pressure when we get past .072, possibly at .08, due to the warrants. Some will exercise for a quick buck as well, whilst seasoned will let them run as a free bee till they feel the upside of Iron in the medium term has been met. There will probably be a drop feed of warrant take up (I am not sure if take up can be done whenever or on specific dates). Anyhow, once we get over .072 it will be a nice problem to worry about then! I am hopeful that will be before Xmas at the latest 🤞

At the AGM the accountant was pretty sure the finals would be ready by the end of November, so if they are released then it would be a possible catalyst for an update if nothing before. I see next resistance around .075 as there are £5m of warrants exercisable at .072 from the last big fundraiser. This would of course be good cash flow for the company but a massive number of new shares. I think realistically I am looking for monthly breakeven by the year end and full production and good monthly profitability by end Q1 2026. I think monthly profit of around £200,000 on current knowledge is a reasonable hope.

Unfortunately not quite that local, I think the mine is about 300mms from JNB, so not just a pop in and see! However I might go over there myself for a site visit early in the New Year. It’s so difficult to know what very near term means, if anything! I do think Kris is a straight guy who will only release real news rather than some AIM companies that have daily RNS’. Probably a good thing but a frustrating wait. I bought another 20m this morning as I do think that the jump on the last news will be repeated, and next time on good news be greater and sustained

Basher, you would of course be welcome to join us and not feel left out!🤣. It is good to have an informative conversation rather then the tampers who constantly say “400% tomorrow” everyday, 10 times a day!! I hope to meet a few of you at the next AGM

LT, yes. I also understand that it is all going fine in SA (I have family there and know the areas, particularly Rustenberg, well). I am hoping for more news on the contracts and breakeven over the next couple of months. Then moving onto good profitability early in the New Year, especially if it is in the miners’ financial interests to do so, as well as ours!

LT, couldn’t agree more. Think the issue is that this is AIM and so off the radar that it won’t move until the actual benefits are shown in the figures. Then there should be a stampede! It is slightly worrying that there are still sellers who know all this, but some people have very short horizons! I have continued to buy and hope that my research and belief is not misplaced!

Hi LT, I have never fully understood the Sable relationship and why they have 26% of the Lapon mine under the JV agreement. I should have asked at the AGM and will next time! The mine is about 200 km from the smelter at Rustenberg, so will probably be trucked there (not much railway in that area!). I would question if they can reach 20,000 by November, just 3 weeks after the agreement, I would think December or January more likely subject to weather as that is their summer and rainy season. Yes, the plant operator is being negotiated as we speak and they were hopeful of completing that soon. If all goes to plan they would probably reduce their headcount down to 5 or so, which would slash costs (there will be the usual professionals cost, particularly lawyers given the contracts needed for this type of outsourcing of production, sales etc etc. I am unsure the value of the finished product, but for some reason just under $2,000 per ton seems to ring a bell. Might be very wrong on that! Does that fill in any gaps? I bought a few more today!!

LT, love your balanced approach, so refreshing to see on LSE. A couple of things if I may. Is the $105 per ton the international price or SA price? I believe the SA market is slightly lower, hence why we may consider exporting but not in the immediate future. Also at the AGM the accountant was present and she stated that she expects the June 2025 accounts to be ready by the end of November, which could mean more updates within 2 months. Also although delays are almost inevitable (and this is IRON as well!), the directors were very positive that drilling should commence imminently and ramp up quickly, with it being in the miners interest to do so and ensure speedy transition into cash flow. We wait with baited breath and increasing investments!

LT, agree about the split being more favourable and “encouraging” over performance of output. Personally I would think that they are aiming for at least 30k per month. My assumptions were pessimistic, I would hate to be called a ramper(!) and do hope for quite a bit more. With regard to the smelter, I do understand that ownership has not actually yet been passed to IRON. Great input from you, thanks

there are also some other income streams from the off takes and other minerals. oh, and remember there are £5m of warrants at .072 from last years fund raise should the sp go up by 50% or more which will aid cash flow if needed and give us funds for investment into other opportunities. i think they have 3 years from this time last year from memory. so what we need is details of the projected income flow from the new mining deal to get this moving and become an investable mining operation rather than a speculative punt. as i said, i am still adding as my back of a *** packet calculation makes me see value in doing so. gla