Member Info for Supercooper

Cue Tlw down to 33.5p

Whatever refinancing option is taken there are a few standouts for me:-

1. The overall financing requirement (and related interest) will reduce substantially in 2025

2. Any equity raise/dilution as part of the scenario based on current share price will still only raise 500ml by doubling the shares in issue.

3. There needs to be a credible plan to grow the business beyond 2025 - too vague at the moment.

4. Kenya needs to be excluded from the plan as I think we are being lead up the garden path on this.

5. We can't rely on OP increasing forever for Tlw SP to improve. Two years ago the going concern assumption was being challenged. Management has done well to alay those fears. Now where is the growth coming from over the next 5 years?

A credible new strategy is required based on the new circumstances, and communicated in a CMD. Then I think we might see sustained SP improvement based on a renewed investment case for Tlw. The quickest way to make a fool of yourself is to predict Tlw SP - I'll let you all think I'm a fool rather than prove it.

Anybody banking on Kenya has rose tinted glasses on in my opinion - even Rahul is now calling it a "value option". Two things that might drive the share price short term are:

1 Gas agreement

2 Favourable tax arbitration outcome.

No exploration apart from Gabon in 2024 but with no indication of size of prospects.

A rather flat webcast with little indication of future production growth other than gas.

Disappointing that the exploration well planned for 2024 seems to be on hold judging by the webcast. Probably to do with Tlw seeking Ghana govt approval to tie any successful well back to the TEN fpso.

After months of dithering, EPRA hire "consultants" to assist in the review. Looks to me like Ruto is playing Rahul like a fiddle. Nobody was ever able to answer with any credibility, why Total/Africa Oil would walk away from this project if there was any value in it. I can see a scenario where the "consultants" come in and get the blame for halting the project based on advice they give EPRA. I think Tlw value proposition is intact without the Kenya project, and judging by today's presentation, it does not have a prominent place in the update.

Time for a rights issue Happy :) Hate to think what you're opinion of Enquest's CEO is - oh wait a minute, your a shareholder in Enquest

Take the 65mln once-off gain on the bonds off and its breakeven - the only negative in the results.

If the OP remains as high as it is for the next 12 months and the mid cap oil sector continues to be disregarded by investors, you can expect M & A activity to kick in - and expect Tlw to be in the middle of it (either pursuing or pursued).

I'm aware of the windfall tax affect but you only have to look at broader sector companies to see the minuscule volumes going through (including Tlw) to see the lack of appetite. Anyway, I hope you're both right - we'll see on Wednesday.

Not sure what the expected Tlw results are, but Enq and HBR (neither of which I'm invested in) got hammered for different reasons recently. Enq for, what looked like, reasonable results and Hbr for going ex-div. Sentiment is not good at the moment for mid cap oilers.

Hi Bailiff

I'm missing something here - what group average?

Two trades of nearly 300k each dumped @36.53 on a day with little volume probably had something to do with the decline

So, having gone to the trouble of copying and pasting the July Operational Update, show me where the results are, you know, the pre/post tax profit/loss.

At the moment, in the absence of news, Tlw is tied to the OP. Prices over say $95 will start to have an impact on global recovery and be counter-productive for Tlw and oilers.

So what news can we expect next week:-

H1 results uninspiring with low production and average oil price mid to late $70's

No news on Ghana tax dispute (unless Ghana caves in). Hearing expected in October.

No news on Kenya (Parliament in recess)

Possible news on gas deal though present extension lasts until end of September

So lets not allow our expectations get too high

Not much of a chartist myself but has a Golden Cross just formed??

What "Financials next week"??

In all fairness, it wasn't that difficult to see :)

Tman, we've all been there and the Tlw sp could be .27p today - nobody knew at the time. As some have said, if you believe in Tlw buy back in. Tlw has always been high risk but if you eventually get a high return, yesterday's sale won't matter.

I think there might be something wrong with your IG app - over 20 million shares traded is a lot more than average.

PH its a wonder you only joined today then - just think, you could of kept us informed on a daily basis. You're just a bit transparent aren't you? :)