Member Info for Supercooper

In that case (if you own any shares) why do you blame Rahul when the shares go down??

Power, its the fact that he didn't mention Kenya once that is interesting. The game of who blinks first continues...

Unlike Uganda though, this time Tlw has all the cards. If this scenario transpires to be true, and Rahul doesn't get the right price then Tlw can tie Kenya up in the courts for years. Its not as if Tlw is on the brink of bankruptcy or anything is in the share price relating to Kenya.

BR/SA

All very logical and I would (in my more optimistic moods) agree with you except the market doesn't. I'm still a LTH but I've heard it all before and it never translates into SP appreciation. Its like we're in a therapy group convincing ourselves that we are the only ones who know just how great this company is and it goes on for years. The fact is Tullow doesn't have the stature or finances to take on these African countries. So why am I still in? Because there is still some opportunities in Ghana if we play are cards right (or even better)

MA - no I think they would spend the next 10 years in the courts trying to get a dime out of Ruto.

Kenya versus Bad, dirty Oil company. Who do you think would win??

Good luck with that

There's not a hope in hell of getting a red cent from Kenyan govt - only out of production that would come from a deal with a strategic partner. They are waiting for clarity over the stakeholders - in other word what % Kenya has in the deal.

Exxon's potential takeover of Pioneer is only the start in the oil sector. The big boys see the cashflow from undervalued companies and that will eventually ripple downwards. Unless there is a re-rate of the sector, expect more action in the next 12 months.

Any particular reason why you decided to put that into a Tlw BB ?

And do we really want to team up with Paul McDade (Ceo of Afentra) :)

All the time the OP is around the $90 mark Tlw are making a good profit irrespective of short term SP movement. Can the OP maintain its current level until some significant news breaks - that's the question.

MM, but of course "Sensible, big money" institutions hold 800mln shares out of 1.5bln and seem happy to hold. I wouldn't expect these guys to continue buying unless they were looking for a takeover. Increased production and significant fcf with the prospect of debt reduction is clearly not attractive anymore :)

Should have been a good day yesterday but ended up being a very poor SP performance for Tlw. Just no interest in the share at the moment.

Bunch of politicians attending a talking shop - nothing unusual about that. Nothing will happen in Kenya until Ruto gets the % he's looking for from the Total/AOI stake. Could be a long game of poker.................

I asked IR when they expected an outcome of the arbitration process and this was the reply :-

"While it is difficult to estimate the duration of an arbitration, Tullow expects the arbitration to conclude in the next 18-24 months. Meanwhile, Tullow continues to engage with the Government of Ghana, including the GRA, with the aim of resolving these disputes on a mutually acceptable basis."

MadmOnk, go to any board for any company and you will get rampers and de-rampers. The idea that this board is somehow unique is nonsense. When I feel it necessary I challenge both types of posters and try to maintain a balanced view of a company's prospects. Tlw is a less risky investment now than 3 years ago, but still have to prove the business has growth potential.

I suppose the answer to that is that big institutions already own over 50% of the shares - they don't just continually accumulate shares in companies. At least none of them are getting out of Tlw currently.

Management has applied judgement in assessing the likely outcome of the claims and has estimated the financial impact based on external tax and legal advice and prior experience of such claims.

Taken from 2021 Accounts - this shows a gross liability of over S1Bln if all disputed tax claims went against the company.

"Due to the uncertainty of such tax items, it is possible that on conclusion of an open tax matter at a future date the outcome may differ significantly from Management's estimate. If the Group was unsuccessful in defending itself from all of these claims, the result would be additional liabilities of $1,025.5 million (2020: $1,070.2 million) which includes $33.6 million of interest and penalties (2020: $61.2 million)."

It is unlikely that anything like this amount would be payable, but the point is it creates uncertainty for prospective investors until it is resolved.

I'm merely stating facts that some on this board prefer to forget and instead drone on about how undervalued Tlw is. It is undervalued and the reason is that the vast majority of mid cap oilers are at multi year lows and the sector is beaten up (along with a few Tlw specific issues). Management say there is no validity to the claim - any deal within the Gas discussions would indicate there was some grounds for the assessments and set a precedent.

There is no demand for the sector never mind Tlw. Coupled with that people forget Tlw has tax demands totaling 650mln currently going through arbitration. Should that go against us, there's 80% of the much lauded 800mln fcf gone in a puff of smoke. You can say " there's no way blah blah blah" but prospective investors have another reason not to put money into Tlw until the uncertainty is gone.