Member Info for Supercooper

Comparing oil production v oil production

2023 already lowered forecast was 58k - 60k which we didn't make.

2024 forecast is 55k-61k

Both years have 7k gas

@Flavius,

JSE came on stream in July 2023 and was supposed to be the catalyst for significant production increase and we find out now that production will be flat for 2024 and to massage the figures we start to include Gas into boepd figures - something they didn't do for the whole of last year. As I said earlier, there is no growth for 2024 and Rahul is basically sitting back to collect cash to reduce debt. Any decent admin person can look after that. Unless there is a deal in the making and he is clearing the decks to look after that. He sure better be otherwise we're all screwed.

Can anybody explain how we end up owing 350mln tax in 2024. Even taking account of it being "cash" tax , the rate must be well in excess of 50% or is this more cover up - arbitration gone against us (just like playing with the production numbers)?

Imagine the money you could make Bloopy Boo Boo, if your predictions were even close didums

Precisely TP, and if you look at my earlier posts I was saying it was misleading, but Rahul has got away with it. The fact is nobody on this board can give an explanation of why the SP went from 39p to below 30p and then after the rns went up to 35p. The only explanation is that the LSE is now the wild west of international share trading and is becoming transparent because of the low liquidity. Still as @Destitute Broker says at least the "Industry" gets well paid.

You make the assumption that no level of debt is appropriate for a company and therefore the current bonds should not be refinanced either in whole or in part. Apply that rule to all companies and none would exist. Utter tosh as usual from the expert recommending an equity raise when the sp was 13p.

We've been getting revenue from gas throughout 2023 from the interim agreement but I'm not going to split hairs with you. You may not think it but we're on the same side.

@seekingalpha, the markets see headline figures but Rahul has manipulated the figures for 2024 forecast by including gas (7k) for the first time. Looks to me like he's taking the next year off unless something is cooking in Kenya or elsewhere in the background.

2024 guidance 55k-61k. Don't be fooled by Rahul including the gas contribution for the first time. He's played around with numbers to mask terrible 2024 forecast. Could get hammered today.

You've got to wonder with these numbers, what in God's name was Goethe doing buying in @38p level? Surely he attends board meetings and gets monthly accounts and production figures???

Not a good trend

BRB, Rahul has already said it's Jubilee - the speculation I'm referring to is extrapolating limited 2023 figures (only averages for the year available) to get 2024 projections.

Agreed Scrodingerscat, but it is useful sometimes to scrutinize the contrarian view if for no other reason than to confirm your own position. The reality is that it is impossible to extrapolate production in the 2nd half o 2023 to project 2024 because the numbers aren't available yet. So this is a purely speculative piece to support a short position. I did make the point that I have yet to be pleasantly surprised by Rahul's updates but let's see on Wednesday next.

In fairness, Tlw has never surprised to the upside on production forecasts/actuals though the article is not balanced in any way. The inference that there is no good news pending because a NED buys shares maybe true but Goethe owns approx 1.75% and is still buying at 38p - maybe he is just a fool with too much money but given his background I doubt it. Either way, he's closer to the company than any of us are.

New??

Nobody gets OP forecasts right - just look at how wrong most of the predictions were for 2023. We are at the top of the interest rate cycle with the world economy on a slow down for the last 18 months and still the OP is close to $80. I would also not exclude the possibility of some corporate activity this year but who knows. Maybe ask the IEA.....

Big trades going through recently can only be sell orders with delayed reporting showing them as buys - no other reason I can think of for the capitulation

Director buying at these prices whose closer to the numbers - ask yourself why!!

Don't tell me - you sold another tranche of 10 shares @ 38.2 and bought back 11 shares 37.8p :)

Our friend Goethe grabs another 200k @38.5p approx.