Member Info for Supercooper

J.Bond,

Can't really argue with that assessment - I would add any potential M&A could also move the SP north.

Well did you know it's one of the first signs of madness? No, I didn't know that, thanks for letting me know. Eh no, we are not one and the same Raffles :)

It was kinda rhetorical to see if anyone was on the same track as me. It might explain the 2024 forecast lacking in any material growth prospects (perhaps devoting time to bedding in a potential acquisition. Regarding Kenya, a lump sum and minor carried interest would avoid any capital expenditure. Tullow is too small to be a significant player. With Ghana, I agree that the tax outcome should be in Tlw's favour - I also believe the new incentivised tax/royalty rules that maybe in the offing could explain the forecast production for 2024 being so low. All speculation but something needs to materialise to put a rocket under this SP.

That's the mechanics of it - the issue is why now both from Glencore's point of view and Tlw's. Tlw will probably be able to repay the 2025 bonds out of cashflow up to May 2025.

Stupmy, what's your take on the chart situation here?

Even more reason why Glencore shouldn't have advanced them the facility. More to it than that.

"slashes dividend in effort to shrink debt" and they still advance Tlw a loan of $400mln ?

How in the name of God is the guidance 55k-61k for 2024 when we have spent hundreds of millions on drilling in Ghana over the last 3 years. If you need an explanation for the current SP, that's it.

Agreed JMAX, continual drab updates but the latest one took the biscuit. If you take it at face value, there is no reason for a new investor to buy into Tlw and yes, increasing Op is probably the only upside and so you might as well buy oil on the spot market. My gut feel is there is something going on behind the scenes and hopefully it won't be an attempt to bring it private (never in the interests of shareholders). We shall see...

If they rank below Bonds (which they do), it doesn't matter what security they might have in the event of a wind up - they wouldn't get a penny. The offtake agreement would be small beer for Glencore but there is a hefty interest rate on the loan.

@JMAX what's your point?

Top end of guidance for oil is 61K

Btw, having read that "research" you can't get away from the fact that Glencore are still willing to loan $400mln pretty much unsecured below the bonds and Goethe bought in at 38p less than 2 months ago. Something doesn't make sense about all this....

Can't get away from the fact that the 2024 forecast for oil production is the same as 2023 which means something serious has gone wrong with Jubilee expectations. All will be be clearer when the final results are published with the webcast. I hope some hard questions are put to Rahul - he's got some explaining to do.

@JMAX, nobody's under pressure judging by the volumes - shorts and longs in stalemate:)

Yes @Power, boring equally for shorts and longs/rampers and de-rampers. The poor sod waiting to buy under 25p and others to sell over 40p.

Agreed GG - some posters on here forget that Capricorn came to Tullow (not the other way around) and in Rahul's defense it was CNE management that were opportunistic not Tlw.

On what basis?

@JMAX, yes you did provide a solitary example even if a little outdated. The truth is that notifiable short interest in Tlw is no more presently then the long term average over the last 15 years. Shorts are playing little or no part in the present SP. Pure lack of demand is the culprit and on the face of it, the latest RNS does nothing to encourage new investors. Rahul will need to justify his big salary with something more than was stated in the update.

And what does anybody think will be in the results that will propel the SP northwards apart from a possible increased profit.