Member Info for Supercooper

On that metric, most shares on LSE should be going down :)

Let's hope not - look at what happened when they announced the latest buys :)

Eh, If he's in the boardroom he's partly responsible - we can only hope he knows something and has a grip on a realistic valuation for Tlw based on what he knows.

Yeah,

He's beginning to be a bit of a jinx on this share - every time he buys, the share price goes down.

True JMAX - they do however use discounting techniques to account for risk to the upside/downside but I take your point. Generally ignore broker estimates like Jefferies 27p and Davy's £1.

Just FYI Davy's has a latest price target of £1 since the results announcement, stating the "crowd madness into tech stocks" as part of the reason why the SP is depressed.

You do ask a lot of questions, don't you?

The art of investing is identifying companies with low valuations that have potential. Sentiment for oilers is at an all time low - just look at the charts of Tlw's peers. This will turn at some stage or M&A activity will eventually increase. Either way it will be reflected in an increased share price - all things being equal.

How about:-

Annual FCF $300mln

Market Cap $450mln

Resuming exploration in 2025 (Cote D'Ivoire)

The lottery that is Kenya

Possible M&A activity

Debt Reduction on target

Oil Price > $80 at the height of high interest rate cycle and low growth world economy (what could the OP be in a recovery scenario)

Improved hedging profile from mid 2024

Well JMAX may not contribute anything useful to this forum but he sure as hell takes up most of the conversations - can we try to keep on Tlw discussions that exclude commenting on "i called 39p, my SP predictions were more accurate than yours" and various exchange of insults, please - pretty please??

Anyone notice the question from Jefferies relating to any additional capex for subsea infrastructure. Still smarting from getting their capex 2024 forecast massively wrong and trying to justify it by uncovering undisclosed future expenditure. Rahul answered nonchalantly "not in the foreseeable future". Tail between legs comes to mind.....

Surprise surprise, only when the share price comes down do the de-rampers come out :)

It might be just me but the Kenya update has a slightly more positive nuance than the previous 18 months particularly :-

"While we continue to progress the FDP, we are also actively working with the Government of Kenya in developing options to accelerate production and cash flow to unlock value from this well-matured resource base".

Old news - nobody with a brain in their head is banking on Kenya coming in anytime soon. You sold out so why are you still hanging around seeing as you only just joined the forum today??

I'd believe the price that investors are currently prepared to pay for Tlw shares i.e approx. 28p

Your short only affects the price when you physically short - not when you keep the short "running"

GG,

Take a look at the the disclosed shorts on Tlw over the last 15 years and you will see that presently it is at or below the average for that period. It may not be the total short positions but a good indication. It is low volume that allows manipulation of the SP downwards and I've already given my opinion on why there is low volume.

Scrodingerscat, "To address this the board needs to start releasing news on progress".The problem is they have released news of progress :-

1. July 2023 - JSE goes into production increasing Jubilee output to over 100k bopd

2. August 2023 - Production under 100k due to water injection problems and averages approx85-90k to end of 2023.

3, December 2023 - Water injection problems fixed (apparently)

4. January 2024 - 2024 guidance 55kbopd - 61k bopd potentially BELOW 2023.

I agree with your views on LSE and have stated so in the past. The malaise is sector - wide but we are probably getting the worst treatment because of a fundamentally poor operational performance and no clearly articulated strategy that is being delivered on. Nothing to do with fantasy scumbag shorters as some on here would have us believe.

However much the SP is being manipulated on such low volumes, the fact is that Rahul has given prospective new investors the clear message that Tlw is taking the next year off and sitting back to collect the cash. Hence no volume and hence no improvement in the SP. He needs to explain himself because unless he's working on something in the near term, I've lost any faith I had in him.

Not sure much is happening apart from a few politicians not wanting to be caught off-guard in the unlikely event something does happen. If next weeks results don't impress and no change to 2024 forecast, then this could drop further south. Operationally flat for next 12 months.

Just for the record, 20k of BHL shares would be approx 1.2mln shares before 9.21am - it didn't happen.