Member Info for Supercharger

Buy-Sell you are quite correct and that is why my biggest headache every year is what shares can I sell in January to March before everyone else does to meet my and my wife's Capital gains allowance. We have no cramer verses cramer. My biggest competitor is my pension provider and we always have a private joke about who has made more with my funds. I usually make more than them on my private funds compared to my pension fund. So Mr Fairtrader you might want to reconsider who is conning who. I would rather be in charge of my own investments that pay someone else to do so and then have them make less than I can myself.
Think about it Mr Fairtrader you said the Pubs was the main business for Marstons and I said it was the "off" sales sold to supermarkets, etc. You should therefore be happy but I am unhappy with the sale of 60% of Marstons main money earnings at the moment in a pandemic that is spreading -despite the fact you disagree. As it turned out Marstons said that they met 90% of sales mainly due to the increase in "off sales" well now they only will have 40% from the brewing side and you feel it is a great deal all of a sudden? You are conning yourself to be honest if you think so. The sale only took place because it needed to protect the Pubs in my opinion and I would have prefered to have sold the Pubs and kept the Brewing business. Or have had a rights issue instead to raise extra needed emergency cash. I appreciate you cannot see what I can but that is not a problem for me after all this is an open discussion and certainly not a con. Think about it you cannot con me. I sold out a week or so ago for 3p a share more than after the deal has been signed. I feel I have been honest when I said openly on this board be careful. We will readdress this issue if the Uk does fall into lockdown but at the moment with all of your positive support I can afford to be negative. Good weekend.

Pitter P -with lock down spreading across the Country the main income for Marstons was their brewery business and off sales. They have taken cash to reduce debt but now only own 40% of their past pay master the brewery business. Carlsberg UK were bringing less to the party on brewing than Marstons yet they now own the majority share due to the cash payment to reduce debt (shareholders will not see it). The amount they paid Marstons does not reflect to me at this stage what was lost i.e. the 60% based on the pre JV figs, and for the goodwill of the business. Marstons have 40% of the Brewery business and less than 1400 pubs still with a large growing debt pile in lockdown. The reason for them not jumping to as some said 80p or even what I said 73p is due to analysts working this one out. However as I said before if they fall down to my original buying point being in the late 30p's I will come back in here depending on the Virus situation. In the meantime I am happy to have sat on my 24% profit taking from this share previously (pre deal signing and above todays price) and to have spread my risks. My banking shares have risen more in the last week than Marstons and so I am doing ok. To me the fact Marstons accepted only 40% of the JV shows the pressure they were under. I would have thought an equal share would have been more in keeping. All the best.

Hi El P yes some of us are on here I have been in/out of Hoc for maybe 10 years or more a great Company. I am still into CEY as well to spread the risk to some degree. At the original Brexit vote I did very well with Hoc which took care of all of my losses on my other shares which was good. I see the same volatility coming to be honest with the USA elections, the Fed meets again next week?? and what with Brexit as the sweeper in defence. The dollar currency play may come in too. I see the precious metals prices spiking in the last half an hour so we just need to be patient into next week in my opinion. GLA.

If anyone wants to short this stock they might need to realign before the American election. Only three days to go - many different scenarios remain and that's before we even talk about the Fed meeting next week (just announced on Bloomberg. So lots going on to fuel the prices here. If someone already has it will mean them buying back in and lifting our price as they turn long - I am sure. Time is on our side and well said Razor on the new license opportunities -could / will be the icing on the cake! Lots to look forward to.

Appears due to a falling USD as much as anything else - although the far eastern markets do look at us as an alternative safe haven when the USD is under stress. It looks like there is concerns raised about the US economy too and no doubt the way the forecasts are going against Mr Trump is not a sign of strength. We could get off to a good start when trading starts in a few hours if the precious metals keep rising.

Rising Gold prices should get us off to a good start when trading starts tomorrow last working day of October as the USD falls. Currently gold back up to USD1875 and rising.

If you come back and say to me that you cannot include the loss of the 60% Marstons share of their own brewing business as the value of the deal is over the current book price then no doubt Mr Taxman may have something to deduct as well.
All I am saying is I am a little bit worried and concerned if the deal is not concluded tomorrow as promised by the end of October, sometimes the market will not always react positively as it likes to work on expectation and in advance so I wish you all well for tomorrow an important day but nothing is always as it seems.

Looking at it another way Marstons owned a brewing business valued at £580m - will only own 40% ££232 leaving a loss of £348. For which they are paid by Carlsberg Uk £230 (as disclosed on the Marstons web) plus they also gain a 40% share of the Carlsberg share which is worth according to Giantsquid £80m (tbc) means Mars get on the books a total of £232 plus £80 =£312,000 (plus any future contingent payment) against an accounting loss of their 60% share worth £348m?

Hi Viable - yes interesting one this isn't it -perhaps they are appointing in advance of a market entry? Or an issue? ETF sales? Defence of an approach? Or new application? Could be for a number of reasons I suppose but one thing is for sure there will be a reason.

Hi Sotolo -well you are right to mention the US elections too as whatever way you look at it we should get more stimuli agreed and this would usually help us. Fingers crossed. I am surprised after the LaGarde's comments we did not move up even higher as the market always works on anticipation but perhaps they also see that talk is cheap.
By the way I got sent a CEY RNS tonight after close and it appears they now have BofA as a joint corporate broker? I wonder if something is afoot with them? or they have an approach in the offing? or are seeking their thoughts on perhaps a NYSE entry?.... Interesting appointment in my opinion.

Appointment of another corporate broker in BofA ?? I wonder if we should look further into this? Are further moves afoot? Will we be joining the NYSE or is there are other reason behind it? I.e. Is there word on the street about new contract wins or an approach is on its way? -Interesting?

Another question - Do the EU from the Carlsberg side need to approve the JV - we know from the Marstons side this is not required with the CMA approval but what about a Danish Brewer? Do they need approval? They are also spending money on buying up a German brewer and so the EU may be worried about a monopoly and so they will not be paid £100 to pass go - just yet? No comments required from Yoyoma, Fairtrader and Barchild as we really need to discuss the wider picture and have a balanced discussion.

Interesting Carlsberg statement issued today?
Did anyone see mention of a deal being imminent? Perhaps with no other direction it is natural for people to suspect we are not over the line just yet and there could be a hold up, even the EU could not be bold enough to introduce more stimuli when clearly it is needed when the two major Countries go into lockdown.

2Reinc -also remember the big number being the transfer of funds will be affected by the roe and currency movement to affect the timing. Whilst the euro has some strength the deal is more likely short term but if as the ECB has said extra devaluation or stimuli is required at today's ECB meeting that will affect the Euro fall against GBP and then the deal will become far more expensive. However will they sign off the deal now or later with Germany and France in lock down and the Uk heading that way and the price of money likely to get even cheaper going forward for Carlsberg to borrow should it be required at a cheaper rate? I am sure the share price will rise after the deal is signed but my problem is I do not know when that will now be? We are at the end of October already - almost. If we return back down to the late 30p's I will top up again then.

The words mean more LaGarde has just said the ECB will have to act at the next meeting. The markets are already responding positively. We will see I am sure prices coming back as the market always acts in advance. Also we will have the Fed speaking soon I am sure and the USA elections where either way we will see some stimuli. The reason I believe for the slight fall in precious metals is the commodities being sold (over supply short term) to raise cash but this will soon turn with rising prices. We just need to be patient in my opinion. A good time to buy here to be honest.

The words mean more LaGarde has just said the ECB will have to act at the next meeting. The markets are already responding positively. We will see I am sure prices coming back as the market always acts in advance. Also we will have the Fed speaking soon I am sure and the USA elections where either way we will see some stimuli. The reason I believe for the slight fall in precious metals is the commodities being sold (over supply short term) to raise cash but this will soon turn with rising prices. We just need to be patient in my opinion. A good time to buy here to be honest.

Seems like they could have been even more dovish but essentially :-
Left deposit facility at negative 0.5% -but report looks more dovish- but their hands appear tied with sentiment so negative. Perhaps the dollar will rise further against the euro?

Left deposit facility at negative 0.5% -but report looks more dovish- but their hands appear tied with sentiment so negative. Perhaps the dollar will rise further against the euro?

Might makes the precious metals come back into focus!

Could makes the precious metals recover quite quickly? Also we have the Fed to decide later I suppose? Certainly Europe needs help now going into a lockdown with the two biggest economy providers.